Noisy-Urn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$16

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

152

lifetime

Volume

$13.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$88

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 07-17 07:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Crypto

59% 100% +$1

Other

19% 100% +$14

Sports

14% — —

Politics

7% 100% +$0

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$431	216	216	+0	open	—	01-27 09:14
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$253	127	127	+0	open	—	04-23 06:43
Will Beatriz Haddad Maia win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	2	$249	125	125	+0	open	—	04-25 08:16
Will Emma Raducanu win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	2	$249	125	125	+0	open	—	04-25 09:02
netanyahu out by march 31 854	2	$229	114	114	+0	open	—	04-03 06:09
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$229	115	115	+0	open	—	02-10 09:19
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$228	114	114	+0	open	—	04-07 03:32
will bitcoin dip to 35k in march 2026	2	$222	111	111	+0	open	—	03-17 05:28
will bitcoin dip to 25k in march 2026	2	$221	111	111	+0	open	—	03-17 05:48
will train dreams win best picture at the 98th academy awards 736	2	$221	110	110	+0	open	—	03-12 03:10
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$218	109	109	+0	open	—	03-03 04:06
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$217	109	108	+0	open	—	04-07 03:51
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	2	$210	105	105	+0	open	—	02-13 07:03
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?	2	$177	89	89	+0	open	—	01-19 06:37
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?	2	$177	88	88	+0	open	—	01-19 07:01
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?	1	$150	150	0	+150	open	—	05-21 03:47
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19?	1	$149	149	0	+149	open	—	05-19 05:08
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23?	1	$148	148	0	+148	open	—	05-23 08:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$144	145	0	+145	open	—	05-15 09:22
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17?	1	$144	144	0	+144	open	—	05-17 12:49
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12?	1	$143	144	0	+144	No	+$1	05-12 10:11
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26?	1	$143	143	0	+143	open	—	05-26 12:45
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14?	1	$143	143	0	+143	open	—	05-14 09:53
msft above 490 on june 5 2026	1	$143	143	0	+143	open	—	06-05 12:21
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?	1	$139	139	0	+139	open	—	05-27 10:34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?	1	$134	134	0	+134	open	—	05-28 04:27
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $240 Week of May 4 2026?	1	$134	134	0	+134	No	+$0	05-08 04:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	1	$133	133	0	+133	No	+$0	05-11 08:35
will the price of bitcoin be between 80000 82000 on april 17	1	$127	127	0	+127	open	—	04-17 06:11
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on May 7?	1	$127	127	0	+127	Yes	+$0	05-07 08:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-17 07:33:57	tsla above 435 on july 17 2026	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0x272258…
07-17 06:56:28	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0xdd0261…
06-05 12:21:13	msft above 490 on june 5 2026	No	BUY	143	100¢	$143	0x968d8e…
05-30 12:49:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?	Yes	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0x5e6942…
05-30 12:31:12	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x03eff1…
05-29 11:14:39	Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 in May?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$122	0x03d615…
05-28 04:27:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?	No	BUY	134	100¢	$134	0xdb1965…
05-27 10:34:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	139	100¢	$139	0xe54c89…
05-26 12:45:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	143	100¢	$143	0xf730fa…
05-26 12:33:23	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x15d7c4…
05-24 10:41:23	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$4	0xae2a97…
05-24 10:30:20	Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	Avalanche	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x505c7b…
05-23 08:07:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	148	100¢	$148	0x689c69…
05-23 07:58:48	GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Anhelina Kalinina vs Petra Marcinko	Petra Marcinko	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xd1890b…
05-21 03:47:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x6c990c…
05-19 05:08:06	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0xd9ae6d…
05-18 11:57:28	Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Katerina Siniakova	Marie Bouzkova	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0x5563d8…
05-17 12:49:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	144	100¢	$144	0xb0dcd3…
05-15 09:22:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	145	100¢	$144	0x42e981…
05-14 09:53:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	143	100¢	$143	0x25be73…
05-12 10:11:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	144	100¢	$143	0x29b506…
05-11 08:35:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0xff618a…
05-11 08:03:40	Zagreb: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Josip Simundza	Josip Simundza	BUY	9	14¢	$1	0x5374d8…
05-10 07:58:03	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Rebeka Masarova	Jessica Pegula	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x8d4e63…
05-08 04:50:00	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $240 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	134	100¢	$134	0xbb944a…
05-07 08:27:44	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0xd2d9f2…
05-07 08:16:13	Nagasaki Velca vs. Alvark Tokyo	Nagasaki Velca	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x24e117…
05-06 12:32:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6?	No	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x526b21…
05-06 12:29:42	Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings	Sunrisers Hyderabad	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xd8f545…
05-05 06:18:30	Will Solana reach $105 on May 5?	No	BUY	87	100¢	$87	0xa402d6…
05-05 06:18:14	Will Solana dip to $60 on May 5?	No	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0x7230e9…
05-03 07:13:02	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3?	No	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0xf0d49e…
05-01 10:44:02	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $215 Week of April 27 2026?	No	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0x3f547e…
04-30 09:41:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x339e46…
04-27 06:43:12	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 27?	No	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0x195065…
04-26 04:09:42	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 26?	No	BUY	121	100¢	$120	0x483017…
04-25 09:22:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 25?	Yes	BUY	121	100¢	$120	0x1ca93e…
04-25 09:07:28	Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Jasmine Paolini	Jasmine Paolini	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0xc50322…
04-25 09:02:34	Will Emma Raducanu win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	SELL	125	100¢	$124	0x05674a…
04-25 08:17:46	Will Emma Raducanu win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0xd7adfc…
04-25 08:16:44	Will Beatriz Haddad Maia win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	SELL	125	100¢	$125	0x73255f…
04-25 07:54:12	Will Beatriz Haddad Maia win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0xe88ded…
04-24 10:45:10	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 240 259	No	BUY	125	100¢	$124	0x61b25b…
04-24 10:29:18	Madrid Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Tomas Etcheverry	Sebastian Ofner	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x688207…
04-23 06:53:24	ethereum above 2600 on april 23	No	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x8dcc5e…
04-23 06:43:40	Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	127	99¢	$126	0xdfbe13…
04-23 05:16:00	Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	127	100¢	$126	0x004862…
04-22 10:08:50	will the price of ethereum be between 2100 2200 on april 22	No	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0x15fd4e…
04-20 05:06:30	bitcoin above 80k on april 20	No	BUY	121	100¢	$120	0x7790ae…
04-20 03:58:52	Madrid Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Suzan Lamens	Elvina Kalieva	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xe96d5b…
04-19 11:48:08	will the price of ethereum be between 2000 2100 on april 19	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0xb9b554…
04-19 11:43:18	cs2 fal2 furia 2026 04 19	FURIA	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0xd434a3…
04-17 06:11:02	will the price of bitcoin be between 80000 82000 on april 17	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x5912e5…
04-16 09:10:34	will the price of ethereum be between 2000 2100 on april 16	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x680957…
04-15 09:49:18	bitcoin above 78k on april 15	No	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x03fa0b…
04-14 06:56:41	bitcoin above 70k on april 14	Yes	BUY	124	100¢	$123	0x5dd4a2…
04-13 00:48:03	ethereum above 1900 on april 13	Yes	BUY	126	100¢	$126	0xef4f86…
04-12 08:55:13	will the price of ethereum be between 1900 2000 on april 12	No	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0xf43238…
04-12 07:23:57	mlb nyy tb 2026 04 12	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0xa82b8d…
04-11 05:54:11	bitcoin above 78k on april 11	No	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x8537e5…
04-10 04:45:23	will the price of ethereum be greater than 2500 on april 10	No	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x028d17…
04-09 06:05:43	bitcoin above 76k on april 9	No	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x36f7b0…
04-08 07:33:05	will the price of bitcoin be between 64000 66000 on april 8	No	BUY	113	100¢	$113	0xf1dd66…
04-08 07:13:37	atp lehecka tabilo 2026 04 08	Jiri Lehecka	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x8633cd…
04-07 03:59:09	will the price of bitcoin be between 58000 60000 on april 7	No	BUY	108	100¢	$108	0x773dd3…
04-07 03:51:51	Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	108	100¢	$108	0x75c629…
04-07 03:34:47	Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	109	100¢	$108	0x71c900…
04-07 03:32:59	euroleague barcelon panathin 2026 04 07	Panathinaikos	BUY	10	57¢	$5	0xacc850…
04-07 03:32:31	Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	114	100¢	$114	0x83b18c…
04-07 03:16:49	Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0x73f304…
04-06 01:59:03	will the price of ethereum be between 1700 1800 on april 6	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0xe8d919…
04-05 10:52:37	bitcoin above 64k on april 5	Yes	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0x02bb21…
04-05 10:42:21	nba phx chi 2026 04 05	Bulls	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x13aa76…
04-04 05:04:07	bitcoin above 70k on april 4	No	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0x77475b…
04-03 06:22:07	ethereum above 1900 on april 3	Yes	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x4112ba…
04-03 06:21:39	will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 3	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x2c6758…
04-03 06:09:57	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	114	100¢	$114	0xaf44d5…
03-31 08:25:37	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0x2a6986…
03-31 07:56:17	nba cha bkn 2026 03 31	Nets	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x44bb41…
03-30 11:49:44	ethereum above 1800 on march 30	Yes	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x76ecfb…
03-30 11:47:04	bitcoin above 64k on march 30	Yes	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x3de7fa…
03-29 12:10:10	will ethereum dip to 1600 march 23 29	No	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0xb63da4…
03-28 03:40:29	will the price of ethereum be less than 1700 on march 28	No	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0x06cbab…
03-27 11:58:03	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 320 339	No	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0xa00567…
03-24 09:57:17	will the price of bitcoin be between 64000 66000 on march 24	No	BUY	107	100¢	$107	0x83c3a3…
03-24 09:29:01	nhl wsh stl 2026 03 24	Blues	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0xeb77d9…
03-22 11:37:33	will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on march 22	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x786639…
03-21 07:12:21	ethereum above 2300 on march 21	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x8d4c6f…
03-18 08:44:09	ethereum above 2100 on march 18	Yes	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x21ac87…
03-17 05:52:49	bitcoin above 80k on march 17	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x3c760c…
03-17 05:48:27	will bitcoin dip to 25k in march 2026	No	SELL	111	100¢	$111	0x4dab21…
03-17 05:29:33	will bitcoin dip to 25k in march 2026	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x08a9bb…
03-17 05:28:19	will bitcoin dip to 35k in march 2026	No	SELL	111	99¢	$111	0x82290f…
03-17 04:39:11	will bitcoin dip to 35k in march 2026	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0xd6f896…
03-16 09:05:23	ethereum above 2500 on march 16	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x6e5521…
03-14 06:11:29	will josh safdie win best director at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	111	100¢	$110	0xae891f…
03-13 12:34:51	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 78000 on march 13	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xedc55e…
03-12 03:16:15	will the price of ethereum be between 2300 2400 on march 12	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xde50fe…
03-12 03:10:27	will train dreams win best picture at the 98th academy awards 736	No	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0xce2475…
03-12 02:42:29	will train dreams win best picture at the 98th academy awards 736	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x4da9b5…