Crafty-Festival — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$754

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.0%

Resolved

14,902

Trades

34,027

lifetime

Volume

$170.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 10-29 19:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 240 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 59% +$1,096

Other

9% 50% -$353

Sports

1% 48% +$34

Tech

0% 50% +$1

Politics

0% 0% -$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 533 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 25?	22	$132	258	+258	Yes	-$9	09-24 13:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 13:20 UTC	17	$102	148	+148	Down	-$8	03-25 13:23
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on September 25?	16	$101	188	+188	Yes	-$9	09-24 11:01
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 30?	13	$88	167	+167	Yes	+$5	09-29 17:50
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 7?	11	$87	166	+166	No	-$7	10-06 18:42
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on September 25?	8	$85	160	+160	No	-$5	09-24 16:16
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 25?	15	$85	160	+160	No	-$4	09-24 06:54
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on October 11?	15	$82	155	+155	Yes	+$3	10-11 10:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 15:10 UTC	14	$79	125	+125	Down	-$6	03-25 15:13
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 9?	15	$79	160	+160	No	+$1	10-08 22:31
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on September 25?	15	$76	152	+152	Yes	+$0	09-24 14:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 15:25 UTC	23	$75	130	+130	Up	-$3	03-25 15:29
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 9?	8	$72	136	+136	No	-$17	10-09 07:30
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on September 25?	14	$72	140	+140	No	+$0	09-24 20:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 05:15 UTC	5	$71	152	+152	Down	-$71	06-04 05:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-23 23:45 UTC	13	$71	102	+102	Up	-$43	03-23 23:49
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on October 5?	14	$71	135	+135	No	+$16	10-05 14:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 08:30 UTC	6	$71	139	+139	Up	-$71	06-04 08:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	5	$71	169	+169	Up	+$99	05-27 17:37
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 11?	8	$71	140	+140	No	+$9	10-11 08:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	5	$70	112	+112	Up	+$42	05-29 18:07
Will Alec Burleson lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	7	$69	121	+121	Yes	-$9	09-23 22:20
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 26?	8	$68	127	+127	Yes	-$8	09-25 18:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	13	$67	141	+141	Up	+$74	06-03 03:52
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on September 27?	10	$67	127	+127	Yes	-$3	09-27 16:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 10:15 UTC	4	$67	147	+147	Up	+$80	06-04 10:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 09:30 UTC	3	$66	133	+133	Up	+$67	06-04 09:33
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on October 4?	10	$66	124	+124	Yes	-$2	10-04 08:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-05 06:15 UTC	5	$66	106	+106	Down	+$40	06-05 06:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	7	$65	96	+96	Up	+$31	05-29 17:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 19:31:30	Will a Western team reach the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0xfd0b71…
10-29 19:31:22	Will a Western team reach the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x939530…
10-27 17:48:11	Will global temperature increase by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x6512ce…
10-24 07:08:12	Gamba Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xc2fc3c…
10-24 07:08:12	Gamba Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x8c799a…
10-24 06:10:06	Kashima Antlers vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x5b9c50…
10-24 06:09:32	Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x32f564…
10-24 06:09:24	Vissel Kōbe vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xe56594…
10-24 06:08:39	Kashima Antlers vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xd1c529…
10-24 01:23:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x34e341…
10-24 01:23:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0x1f9389…
10-24 00:33:56	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5	Over	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xcb305a…
10-24 00:21:47	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5	Over	BUY	3	28¢	$1	0x9f535f…
10-24 00:21:47	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x9e7768…
10-24 00:21:47	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5	Over	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x3e410c…
10-24 00:21:47	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5	Over	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x1c1dba…
10-24 00:21:47	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x14d7eb…
10-24 00:18:05	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xe035c9…
10-24 00:17:02	CA Tigre vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xc79ef0…
10-23 22:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	15	50¢	$7	0x83ea24…
10-23 22:36:08	Operário Ferroviário EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x89c712…
10-23 22:34:53	Operário Ferroviário EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x5d71bc…
10-23 21:17:41	CSD Independiente del Valle vs. CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xe39072…
10-23 21:16:26	CSD Independiente del Valle vs. CD Universidad Catolica del Ecuador: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb64bee…
10-23 18:35:32	Empoli FC vs. L.R. Vicenza: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xdc9e14…
10-23 18:34:54	Empoli FC vs. L.R. Vicenza: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x6358fb…
10-23 18:06:57	Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xb72451…
10-23 18:03:48	Pau FC vs. Grenoble Foot 38: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x903b65…
10-23 18:02:05	Pau FC vs. Grenoble Foot 38: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x1c98f4…
10-23 17:15:33	Randers FC vs. Brøndby IF: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x5984f0…
10-23 17:08:06	Vasteraas SK vs. Halmstads BK: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x2fc9b7…
10-23 17:07:51	Vasteraas SK vs. Halmstads BK: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x43cf60…
10-23 17:07:18	IF Elfsborg vs. Malmo FF: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xb4a42f…
10-23 17:06:41	Randers FC vs. Brøndby IF: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x3cc307…
10-23 17:05:02	IF Elfsborg vs. Malmo FF: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x16e1cb…
10-23 17:04:59	IF Elfsborg vs. Malmo FF: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0xeec719…
10-23 17:02:27	Alanyaspor vs. Kocaelispor: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x760bed…
10-23 17:01:38	Alanyaspor vs. Kocaelispor: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xcb0f02…
10-23 16:48:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	15	56¢	$8	0xe0d51a…
10-23 16:35:51	SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x1b6cbb…
10-23 16:35:50	SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x659a3f…
10-23 15:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	70¢	$8	0x2bd914…
10-23 15:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x6407c6…
10-23 15:24:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x68eb45…
10-23 15:18:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	16	52¢	$8	0xeeaf9d…
10-23 14:29:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x68689b…
10-23 14:28:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	16	47¢	$8	0xf63bc8…
10-23 13:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0xb1f89e…
10-23 13:53:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	11	70¢	$7	0x29ae89…
10-23 13:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	12	62¢	$8	0xbdd5b9…
10-23 13:38:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0xa5e5fd…
10-23 13:33:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	11	72¢	$8	0x180fbb…
10-23 13:31:14	Al Faisaly Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xb9bf20…
10-23 12:18:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x6a6972…
10-23 12:13:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	63¢	$7	0x74e778…
10-23 09:07:00	Brisbane Roar FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xd5d847…
10-23 09:05:32	Brisbane Roar FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x97e390…
10-23 06:18:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	14	60¢	$8	0x4d3389…
10-23 00:53:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	12	70¢	$8	0x461324…
10-23 00:35:32	CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x112f2a…
10-23 00:32:56	CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x0d0def…
10-22 19:48:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	14	57¢	$8	0x32baff…
10-22 19:14:42	Beşiktaş JK vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x4c2dbb…
10-22 19:06:42	AS Omónoia Leukosías vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x71fcb0…
10-22 19:06:20	Jagiellonia Białystok vs. RSC Anderlecht: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xdfd1df…
10-22 19:05:02	Beşiktaş JK vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x5963e6…
10-22 19:04:45	Jagiellonia Białystok vs. RSC Anderlecht: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x60759e…
10-22 19:03:36	Olympiakós SFP vs. AC Sparta Praha: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x2d10de…
10-22 19:03:33	Olympiakós SFP vs. AC Sparta Praha: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xf93b79…
10-22 19:02:36	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xc9cad2…
10-22 17:39:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0xd6bb7c…
10-22 17:23:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	11	65¢	$7	0xac39da…
10-22 17:06:24	OFI vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xd40664…
10-22 16:55:20	GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. NEC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x3cab29…
10-22 16:49:50	GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. NEC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x4b1f90…
10-22 16:48:29	OFI vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xad93c3…
10-22 15:23:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	11	68¢	$8	0x17b0a1…
10-22 14:50:17	Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xd17509…
10-22 14:34:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	15	42¢	$6	0xd9109b…
10-22 14:18:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0x1010ec…
10-22 13:53:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xe199ea…
10-22 13:53:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x52361e…
10-22 13:43:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	73¢	$8	0xd0c985…
10-22 13:42:45	Al Hazem SC vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x75942f…
10-22 13:42:35	Al Hazem SC vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x28a87c…
10-22 13:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	74¢	$8	0x7fc4e0…
10-22 09:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x557349…
10-22 02:34:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	16	53¢	$8	0xba816d…
10-22 02:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0x96d1e6…
10-22 01:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xe36e69…
10-22 01:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0x32f779…
10-22 01:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x66c53d…
10-22 01:43:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	14	58¢	$8	0x376adb…
10-22 00:36:06	SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x051fb5…
10-22 00:36:02	SE Palmeiras vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x4c3daf…
10-21 23:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	12	60¢	$8	0x48e133…
10-21 19:23:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0x7191cc…
10-21 19:11:23	Real Madrid CF vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xec55d7…
10-21 19:06:24	Reading FC vs. Leyton Orient FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x63feb3…
10-21 19:05:21	FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x8f0719…