Square-Candy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$285

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

68.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$10.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$261

Open exposure

$375

1 position

First seen

2026-03-26

last 10-20 23:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Other

44% 86% +$215

Politics

28% 50% -$1,142

Sports

28% 83% +$1,211

Crypto

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	No		-381	-$385	98¢	$-375	+$9	09-29 22:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	3	$2.9K	2,254	833	+1,421	No	+$76	05-30 10:29
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	5	$2.6K	4,268	2,868	+1,400	Yes	-$1,143	06-17 21:19
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	1	$1.2K	1,370	0	+1,370	New York Yankees	+$123	05-30 02:45
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	2	$717	183	564	-381	open	—	09-29 22:10
mlb bos nyy 2026 09 29	1	$536	957	0	+957	New York Yankees	+$421	09-29 22:11
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	4	$473	270	270	+0	open	—	09-30 20:07
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	1	$361	363	0	+363	Yes	+$2	06-14 23:09
ufc mic12 mau4 2026 06 14	1	$300	1,500	0	+1,500	Mauricio Ruffy	-$300	06-15 01:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$274	154	154	+0	No	+$34	05-02 19:54
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	1	$272	605	0	+605	Knicks	+$333	05-23 03:46
mlb cws hou 2026 09 30	1	$242	576	0	+576	Chicago White Sox	+$334	09-30 20:08
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	1	$128	204	0	+204	Yes	+$75	07-08 02:19
will bully ye debut week album sales be less than 300k	3	$116	177	7	+170	Yes	+$68	04-03 18:23
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)	2	$107	149	0	+149	Knicks	+$42	05-25 03:41
Spread: Knicks (-8.5)	1	$96	149	0	+149	76ers	+$52	10-20 23:00
ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	1	$54	258	0	+258	Justin Gaethje	+$204	06-15 02:11
Spread: 49ers (-7.5)	1	$50	96	0	+96	Commanders	+$46	10-19 21:02
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	1	$50	94	0	+94	No	-$50	06-18 02:55
Commanders vs. 49ers	1	$48	218	0	+218	49ers	-$48	10-19 21:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 00:55 UTC	1	$25	25	0	+25	Down	+$0	06-08 00:59
fifwc uzb col 2026 06 17 spread away 2pt5	1	$24	33	0	+33	Uzbekistan	+$9	06-18 02:55
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	1	$23	27	0	+27	Los Angeles Dodgers	+$4	04-26 21:38
nba sas lac 2026 04 02 spread home 1pt5	2	$18	9	9	+0	Spurs	+$0	04-03 04:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 22:55 UTC	2	$10	16	16	+0	Down	+$0	06-14 22:57
atp buse carabel 2026 04 01	1	$7	9	0	+9	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	+$3	04-02 15:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 23:00:32	Spread: Knicks (-8.5)	76ers	BUY	149	65¢	$96	0x155991…
10-19 21:02:33	Commanders vs. 49ers	Commanders	BUY	218	22¢	$48	0xcbe1a3…
10-19 21:02:10	Spread: 49ers (-7.5)	Commanders	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0xa618f5…
09-30 20:08:00	mlb cws hou 2026 09 30	Chicago White Sox	BUY	576	42¢	$242	0xddf669…
09-30 20:07:21	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	SELL	270	93¢	$251	0x534198…
09-29 22:11:44	mlb bos nyy 2026 09 29	New York Yankees	BUY	957	56¢	$536	0x8a1fde…
09-29 22:10:59	Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	No	SELL	564	98¢	$551	0x316b82…
07-08 02:19:26	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	204	63¢	$128	0x2cefcb…
06-24 15:00:20	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	36	93¢	$33	0x7dfc47…
06-18 02:55:59	fifwc uzb col 2026 06 17 spread away 2pt5	Uzbekistan	BUY	33	72¢	$24	0x788a60…
06-18 02:55:37	Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0xf82b04…
06-17 21:23:22	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	44	83¢	$37	0x79599e…
06-17 21:19:17	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,400	0¢	$1	0x5f601b…
06-15 02:11:46	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	258	21¢	$54	0xb3a498…
06-15 01:53:10	ufc mic12 mau4 2026 06 14	Michael Chandler	BUY	1,500	20¢	$300	0x69470d…
06-14 23:09:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	363	100¢	$361	0x880bba…
06-14 22:57:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 22:55 UTC	Up	SELL	16	33¢	$5	0x78dc90…
06-14 22:57:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 22:55 UTC	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x3676d1…
06-14 22:53:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	1,245	25¢	$312	0x8a3b71…
06-14 22:29:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,245	35¢	$436	0x98bb1b…
06-14 22:01:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	1,623	27¢	$436	0x03edc5…
06-12 04:05:33	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,623	90¢	$1,454	0x3ef03e…
06-08 00:59:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 00:55 UTC	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x6918c4…
05-30 10:29:22	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	1,421	96¢	$1,370	0x49e98c…
05-30 02:45:14	Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	New York Yankees	BUY	1,370	91¢	$1,246	0x491f21…
05-30 02:43:55	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	833	93¢	$775	0x075320…
05-27 18:27:00	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	833	90¢	$750	0xdf3f27…
05-25 03:42:31	Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	No	BUY	183	91¢	$166	0x4d7a69…
05-25 03:41:14	Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)	Knicks	BUY	38	72¢	$27	0x21e655…
05-25 03:37:35	Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)	Knicks	BUY	111	72¢	$80	0x49d829…
05-23 03:46:04	Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Knicks	BUY	605	45¢	$272	0xeb7cb5…
05-09 02:49:57	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	190	80¢	$152	0x3a5d5e…
05-02 19:54:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	154	100¢	$154	0x8d5dc3…
04-26 21:38:50	Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	27	85¢	$23	0x4f5212…
04-19 02:11:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	154	78¢	$120	0x10622a…
04-03 18:23:53	will bully ye debut week album sales be less than 300k	Yes	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x403d26…
04-03 04:51:45	nba sas lac 2026 04 02 spread home 1pt5	Spurs	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xbd64e3…
04-03 04:41:25	nba sas lac 2026 04 02 spread home 1pt5	Spurs	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xa2be14…
04-02 15:42:49	atp buse carabel 2026 04 01	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	BUY	9	72¢	$7	0x3e0ebe…
04-02 15:42:07	will bully ye debut week album sales be less than 300k	Yes	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x306142…
03-26 13:38:45	will bully ye debut week album sales be less than 300k	Yes	BUY	168	60¢	$100	0x14415f…