Worrisome-Restructuring — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

57.2%

Resolved

Trades

246

lifetime

Volume

$8.97K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-13

last 06-22 11:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

56% — —

Politics

39% 50% $-2

Crypto

4% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	Yes		+26	$2	3¢	$1	$-1	06-22 11:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	4	$401	217	217	+0	open	—	04-21 21:23
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	6	$387	201	201	+0	No	+$0	05-03 19:52
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	5	$370	190	190	+0	open	—	04-14 04:53
will collin morikawa win the 2026 masters tournament	5	$328	168	168	+0	open	—	04-07 06:34
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	4	$327	167	167	+0	open	—	04-26 17:20
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	9	$234	345	345	+0	No	$-2	05-08 16:25
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	6	$230	304	304	+0	open	—	05-12 17:27
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	6	$217	312	312	+0	open	—	05-13 03:27
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	2	$214	109	109	+0	open	—	04-27 23:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	5	$213	281	281	+0	open	—	05-08 04:19
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	2	$213	108	108	+0	open	—	04-29 20:52
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	4	$213	108	108	+0	open	—	04-28 02:04
Will Iran strike Yemen by April 30, 2026?	2	$212	108	108	+0	open	—	04-26 08:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	7	$195	300	300	+0	No	$-0	05-10 07:04
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	5	$195	126	126	+0	open	—	04-25 02:06
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	3	$194	100	100	+0	open	—	04-27 08:06
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	3	$194	99	99	+0	open	—	04-27 13:35
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	3	$192	98	98	+0	open	—	04-24 10:28
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	3	$188	96	96	+0	open	—	04-22 20:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$187	97	97	+0	open	—	05-11 14:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	2	$186	94	94	+0	No	+$1	05-08 23:16
will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	2	$185	96	96	+0	open	—	04-12 03:12
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	2	$180	92	92	+0	open	—	04-15 13:00
will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$173	92	92	+0	open	—	04-12 15:43
will nicolai hojgaard win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$170	86	86	+0	open	—	04-08 15:58
will ethereum dip to 1800 in march 2026	6	$170	195	195	+0	open	—	03-30 05:36
will shane lowry win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$169	86	86	+0	open	—	04-11 08:33
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	2	$164	83	83	+0	open	—	03-28 15:10
will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	2	$164	83	83	+0	open	—	03-25 18:13
will si woo kim win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$158	80	80	+0	open	—	04-07 16:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 11:30:52	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	7¢	$2	0xc0089c…
05-19 05:23:58	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0xd35e7e…
05-19 05:23:56	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x705fed…
05-18 22:25:20	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0x650779…
05-18 22:25:20	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	29	4¢	$1	0x15e45d…
05-18 22:25:20	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	42	4¢	$2	0x0b3ed9…
05-13 03:27:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	104	99¢	$103	0x67cc1f…
05-13 03:26:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	104	99¢	$103	0x920ba5…
05-12 17:27:13	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	108	95¢	$102	0x063eeb…
05-12 14:26:26	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	108	95¢	$102	0x6792c1…
05-12 03:15:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	208	3¢	$5	0x1a980d…
05-12 01:30:49	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	3¢	$3	0xb46e0e…
05-12 01:30:49	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0x84e388…
05-12 01:30:49	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	3¢	$1	0x4f8f3c…
05-11 14:57:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	97	97¢	$94	0x2f086b…
05-11 10:04:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	97	96¢	$93	0x762621…
05-11 04:28:51	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	196	6¢	$13	0x27b0ef…
05-11 02:10:01	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	93	6¢	$6	0xeab79b…
05-11 02:10:01	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0xc37f50…
05-11 02:10:01	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	73	6¢	$5	0x157d1c…
05-10 07:04:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	207	4¢	$8	0x3ffcc8…
05-10 05:38:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	4¢	$2	0x8e9c7f…
05-10 05:38:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	162	4¢	$6	0x1ac058…
05-09 12:47:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	37	96¢	$36	0xa1d506…
05-09 12:47:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x1016bb…
05-09 12:47:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x383a7e…
05-09 08:03:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	93	97¢	$90	0xd30ea1…
05-08 23:16:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	94	99¢	$93	0x5059d0…
05-08 18:28:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	94	99¢	$93	0x7ff297…
05-08 16:25:47	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0x88c0d1…
05-08 13:51:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	103	98¢	$101	0x864c90…
05-08 04:19:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	177	3¢	$5	0xd61f15…
05-08 02:52:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	177	3¢	$6	0x49202e…
05-07 21:59:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0x5b92dd…
05-07 21:59:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	95	97¢	$92	0x3fb24a…
05-07 20:45:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	104	97¢	$101	0xbd122b…
05-07 03:00:50	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	62	1¢	$0	0xefea36…
05-07 03:00:50	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	52	1¢	$0	0xa4564d…
05-07 03:00:50	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0x347f6a…
05-07 03:00:50	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	82	1¢	$0	0x08f10b…
05-06 23:33:24	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	225	2¢	$4	0xcea017…
05-06 21:04:41	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	23	1¢	$0	0x6ac6a2…
05-06 15:21:01	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	186	1¢	$2	0xcea2a9…
05-06 12:46:40	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0xd55cff…
05-06 12:46:40	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x8d0f28…
05-06 12:46:40	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	52	1¢	$1	0x342e88…
05-04 02:08:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	6¢	$5	0xf6811c…
05-04 02:08:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	88	6¢	$6	0xed9849…
05-04 00:06:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	8¢	$8	0xa5274b…
05-04 00:06:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0x3aaf81…
05-04 00:06:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	8¢	$5	0x397903…
05-03 19:52:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	98	99¢	$97	0xbe349b…
05-03 16:44:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	98	98¢	$97	0x60a159…
05-03 03:57:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	72	4¢	$3	0xa4c4b7…
05-03 02:23:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	4¢	$3	0x09b1db…
05-01 05:46:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	29	94¢	$27	0xa28034…
05-01 05:46:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	74	94¢	$70	0x7974c8…
05-01 05:37:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	101	94¢	$95	0xb2cc3e…
05-01 05:37:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xb1b4de…
04-30 15:00:50	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	37	99¢	$37	0x6caad2…
04-30 12:14:08	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	37	98¢	$36	0x8e0b44…
04-29 20:52:44	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	SELL	108	99¢	$106	0x0cd170…
04-29 18:42:00	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	BUY	108	99¢	$107	0x6c23f5…
04-29 15:48:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	Yes	SELL	90	1¢	$1	0xee1212…
04-29 15:48:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	Yes	SELL	173	1¢	$2	0xc6708a…
04-29 15:48:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	Yes	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0x616502…
04-29 11:39:28	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	Yes	BUY	276	1¢	$3	0x8f0bf8…
04-28 02:04:22	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xad6528…
04-27 23:00:16	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	109	98¢	$107	0x88e4d4…
04-27 20:35:32	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	109	98¢	$107	0x9b8346…
04-27 13:35:56	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	SELL	92	98¢	$90	0xea02cf…
04-27 13:35:56	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xcb17ce…
04-27 10:46:28	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	BUY	99	98¢	$97	0x262c2d…
04-27 08:06:30	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	No	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0xba1e38…
04-27 08:06:30	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	No	SELL	87	97¢	$85	0x8377e5…
04-27 03:07:04	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xb52516…
04-26 17:20:26	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	108	99¢	$107	0x392688…
04-26 15:01:34	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	108	99¢	$107	0x5782ca…
04-26 08:56:54	Will Iran strike Yemen by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	108	98¢	$106	0xb06504…
04-26 07:26:10	Will Iran strike Yemen by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	108	98¢	$106	0xaca364…
04-26 02:01:44	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	165	5¢	$8	0xfa4250…
04-25 22:42:46	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	165	5¢	$8	0x8186d1…
04-25 14:33:44	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	2¢	$1	0xdbdb85…
04-25 14:33:44	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	2¢	$2	0x305036…
04-25 13:12:54	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	2¢	$1	0xbc831d…
04-25 13:12:54	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	2¢	$1	0x976f8a…
04-25 13:12:54	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	2¢	$2	0x611b3f…
04-25 02:06:06	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x908a47…
04-25 02:06:06	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	102	94¢	$95	0x7c0182…
04-24 22:22:40	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	103	93¢	$96	0x083b18…
04-24 20:05:56	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0xdf8059…
04-24 20:05:18	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	90	98¢	$88	0x010721…
04-24 18:12:32	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	108	98¢	$106	0xb9e609…
04-24 10:28:02	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	77	98¢	$76	0xdabc2a…
04-24 10:28:02	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0x6a084c…
04-24 07:18:36	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	98	98¢	$96	0x1d5d64…
04-24 01:32:54	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	6¢	$1	0x2b061b…
04-24 00:24:06	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	6¢	$1	0xb80fe5…
04-23 10:23:48	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	55	4¢	$2	0xc38908…
04-23 10:23:48	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	144	4¢	$5	0x89cdb7…