Realized P&L
-$644
Unrealized P&L
-$5.55K
Hit rate
54.8%
Resolved
32
Trades
9,442
lifetime
Volume
$794.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$84
Open exposure
$2.11K
19 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 18:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 13 days
Categories
Politics
74% 64% $-2,049
Other
20% 75% +$373
Tech
3%
Crypto
1% 33% $-5
Sports
1% 60% +$1,038
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 197 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +2,378 $1,171 40¢ $963 $-208 06-29 02:20
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? No -384 $-304 91¢ $-348 $-44 06-28 10:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No -200 $-167 100¢ $-199 $-32 06-20 00:43
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No +166 $153 99¢ $164 +$11 06-29 00:44
Over 30M humans verified on World Network by December 31? Yes +1,000 $100 12¢ $125 +$25 06-30 05:06
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes +910 $287 $75 $-212 06-30 16:57
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30? No -75 $-73 99¢ $-75 $-1 06-18 03:00
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +23,723 $3,715 $59 $-3,655 06-25 02:04
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No +50 $10 100¢ $50 +$39 06-18 03:21
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes +35 $34 90¢ $32 $-2 06-24 14:00
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes +2,639 $114 $9 $-104 06-18 02:31
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 06-29 21:21
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes +440 $1,242 $1 $-1,241 06-19 21:04
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? Yes +50 $34 $1 $-33 06-18 03:21
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes +657 $20 $1 $-20 06-10 00:42
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Yes +459 $7 $0 $-6 06-06 19:44
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes +50 $53 $0 $-53 06-25 21:07
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes +31 $5 $0 $-5 06-08 06:07
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No +23 $9 $0 $-9 06-18 07:13