Deep-Occurrence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

25.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$125

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$19

1 position

First seen

2026-05-10

last 06-15 12:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 12% $-18

Other

9% — —

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes		-35	$-11	55¢	$-19	$-8	06-15 12:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	5	$32	28	14	+15	Down	$-8	05-10 07:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	8	$24	19	19	+0	Down	+$4	05-12 02:09
btc updown 5m 1781527200	3	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	06-15 12:43
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	4	$12	8	8	+0	Up	$-0	05-10 08:09
Fed rate hike in 2026?	1	$11	0	35	-35	open	—	06-15 12:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	9	$10	24	17	+7	Up	$-1	05-12 02:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	10	$10	30	0	+30	Down	$-10	05-12 02:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	3	$3	51	1	+50	Down	$-1	05-10 08:04
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	05-10 07:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	Up	$-1	05-12 02:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	1	$1	14	0	+14	Down	$-1	05-10 07:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 12:43:22	btc updown 5m 1781527200	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x0ef626…
06-15 12:42:36	btc updown 5m 1781527200	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xf0668a…
06-15 12:42:36	btc updown 5m 1781527200	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3083f7…
06-15 12:42:00	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	32¢	$11	0x898a17…
05-12 02:15:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xf2701f…
05-12 02:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xfa3c17…
05-12 02:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xb4ff31…
05-12 02:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x878ceb…
05-12 02:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x5c2650…
05-12 02:15:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x61bd11…
05-12 02:15:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x3daac7…
05-12 02:15:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x698f72…
05-12 02:15:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x34e78b…
05-12 02:15:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x1c1770…
05-12 02:11:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xe662bc…
05-12 02:09:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	SELL	9	66¢	$6	0x85fb10…
05-12 02:08:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x586a5d…
05-12 02:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0x81b4ea…
05-12 02:05:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xbeba49…
05-12 02:05:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xaf4c0c…
05-12 02:05:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x4f8b3c…
05-12 02:05:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5c0888…
05-12 02:05:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x56c50d…
05-12 02:03:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xf8a2a3…
05-12 02:03:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0xb43bc6…
05-12 02:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x21ad05…
05-12 02:02:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x6b8bfb…
05-12 02:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x5afa5a…
05-12 02:02:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0x9a4634…
05-12 02:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xaed5cd…
05-12 02:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x6bbd9c…
05-12 02:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x2ba8d1…
05-10 08:09:12	Solana Up or Down - May 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$5	0x097cb1…
05-10 08:07:27	Solana Up or Down - May 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	SELL	3	10¢	$0	0x9d428d…
05-10 08:07:27	Solana Up or Down - May 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x18f785…
05-10 08:05:43	Solana Up or Down - May 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x37307d…
05-10 08:04:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe79a86…
05-10 08:04:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x70a56f…
05-10 08:03:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xc5c5d9…
05-10 07:58:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	14	85¢	$12	0x465708…
05-10 07:58:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xcd8729…
05-10 07:57:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x4f52a9…
05-10 07:55:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x222e26…
05-10 07:55:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x22e5d9…
05-10 07:52:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x6a9bf4…
05-10 07:49:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x97d6b2…