Rosy-Tavern — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$41

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.8%

Resolved

104

Trades

138

lifetime

Volume

$1.43K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 10-29 13:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Other

57% 99% +$3

Politics

34% 91% +$37

Crypto

6% 100% +$0

Tech

3% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	5	$191	96	96	+0	No	+$1	10-29 13:19
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	3	$124	86	41	+45	No	+$1	09-14 15:38
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	2	$90	45	45	+0	No	+$0	08-14 12:18
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	2	$80	40	40	+0	No	+$0	10-05 07:54
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	2	$77	39	39	+0	No	+$0	09-01 08:15
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$76	38	38	+0	No	+$1	08-31 12:16
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$62	61	61	+0	Yes	+$34	10-25 22:57
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	1	$55	55	0	+55	No	+$0	10-06 07:40
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	1	$49	49	0	+49	Yes	+$0	08-05 14:41
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	08-15 22:37
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	1	$45	45	0	+45	Yes	+$0	09-23 07:17
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	08-14 20:25
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$44	44	0	+44	No	+$0	08-21 15:05
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1	$37	37	0	+37	No	+$0	07-30 18:02
LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	2	$28	14	14	+0	Yes	+$0	09-10 00:54
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	3	$28	14	14	+0	No	+$0	09-07 08:18
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$27	27	0	+27	Yes	+$0	05-30 17:28
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	06-30 13:21
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$23	23	0	+23	Yes	+$0	08-18 18:28
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$15	15	0	+15	Yes	+$0	05-26 17:28
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$15	15	0	+15	Yes	+$0	05-14 09:40
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	05-16 08:10
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	1	$15	15	0	+15	Yes	+$0	10-03 06:40
us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	10-01 03:27
will xrp dip to 1pt2 in march 2026	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	03-31 14:35
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	09-10 06:07
will nvidia be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	02-25 06:57
Will Solana reach $110 in April?	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	04-28 23:50
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	2	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	05-12 00:04
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	07-31 22:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 13:19:25	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	96	100¢	$96	0x80fd76…
10-29 03:18:04	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	49	99¢	$48	0xdac2d3…
10-29 03:13:16	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdfab10…
10-29 03:09:59	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x3a7ba6…
10-29 03:09:47	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0xad6df4…
10-27 16:52:35	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x217ca9…
10-25 23:01:50	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	57	7¢	$4	0x13da11…
10-25 22:57:06	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	61	78¢	$48	0xe9c077…
10-23 01:52:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	57	0¢	$0	0x5dc119…
10-17 21:22:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	61	23¢	$14	0x5b4e79…
10-06 07:40:40	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x568d86…
10-05 07:54:16	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xe0bdad…
10-03 06:40:21	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x65e51a…
10-01 03:27:51	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x51c00b…
09-26 08:10:27	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x71707c…
09-26 06:37:42	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2c274b…
09-23 07:17:46	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xd405a8…
09-14 15:38:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x01b9b0…
09-10 06:07:51	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7a796f…
09-10 01:58:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	SELL	41	98¢	$40	0x50a9c1…
09-10 00:54:16	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x8bfff7…
09-09 18:30:10	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x73d243…
09-07 08:18:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x7da15a…
09-07 08:15:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xbc7dcf…
09-04 10:32:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xc48fc8…
09-04 08:40:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	41	95¢	$39	0x94c57a…
09-01 08:15:28	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0xbfb8af…
08-31 14:59:43	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xfe5193…
08-31 12:16:48	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xa18c80…
08-28 07:30:51	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	38	98¢	$38	0x9c5f5c…
08-26 08:55:04	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6e753d…
08-25 22:08:30	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in August?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xdf9ba6…
08-25 09:09:12	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe977bc…
08-21 15:05:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xba9e6d…
08-21 09:25:34	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x5dfff7…
08-21 09:24:36	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x276b44…
08-21 09:24:22	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x1f9507…
08-21 09:24:01	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xb3be36…
08-21 09:23:42	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x6f0866…
08-21 09:23:01	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xac23c6…
08-21 09:22:34	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x3fb2c1…
08-21 09:19:30	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xa99142…
08-21 08:45:34	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x8e8df2…
08-21 08:20:30	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xa64e54…
08-21 08:19:58	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x224ebd…
08-21 07:42:31	Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x7926a4…
08-20 21:34:39	Will Thinky be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe5aedb…
08-18 18:28:27	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x879b8a…
08-15 22:37:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xfeebbc…
08-14 20:25:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x7bcc40…
08-14 12:18:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0x5303b3…
08-10 22:32:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x45774e…
08-10 16:09:48	will ethereum reach 3000 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x63c490…
08-09 00:17:18	will ethereum dip to 1100 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd8b12e…
08-05 14:41:36	Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x590aa6…
08-03 17:36:54	will ethereum dip to 1100 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb1ad50…
07-31 22:54:17	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x8652f4…
07-31 20:18:21	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc55686…
07-30 18:02:45	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0xe7d0a0…
07-30 16:15:00	will ethereum dip to 1600 in july 2026 from july 6	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf33142…
07-29 10:33:18	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3fb095…
07-28 21:40:35	will ethereum reach 2300 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xaec3ab…
07-27 08:40:13	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x06758e…
07-27 05:30:36	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa49089…
07-25 00:15:13	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x898cc6…
07-24 12:47:00	will xagusd dip to 48 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb8a483…
07-23 03:40:33	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd5ad05…
07-21 23:28:01	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7b2586…
07-20 21:29:36	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc28c45…
07-17 13:07:21	will bitcoin dip to 37pt5k in july 2026 944	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xda84c4…
07-03 10:21:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$2	0x6928ba…
07-01 00:31:50	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x5545a7…
06-30 13:21:41	Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x6031a9…
06-27 17:27:28	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xfcb481…
06-27 00:12:50	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x98aa32…
05-30 17:28:57	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xc79eb4…
05-26 17:28:11	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x4143b6…
05-16 08:10:57	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x5f18dc…
05-14 09:40:42	Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xd1e0e4…
05-12 00:04:41	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xda2e6a…
05-10 10:31:25	Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa295c3…
05-09 12:31:11	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x2934b6…
05-06 14:32:29	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x27d8b7…
05-05 19:48:00	Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd75a42…
04-28 23:50:50	Will Solana reach $110 in April?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x933a79…
04-22 18:43:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x1986cc…
04-21 11:22:44	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $240 end of April?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7fb95f…
04-20 21:50:02	Will Meta (META) close above $440 end of April?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xf0d99b…
04-19 18:12:40	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xfee887…
04-18 10:34:26	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xfe9883…
04-16 07:05:20	Will Solana reach $150 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x575127…
04-14 14:55:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6426b2…
04-06 12:33:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xba4fd2…
03-31 14:35:53	will xrp dip to 1pt2 in march 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd9b27b…
03-29 04:20:34	nvda above 180 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2b98dc…
03-28 17:32:15	amzn above 250 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x208329…
03-26 21:26:07	googl above 370 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x43f05e…
03-25 03:28:55	amzn above 170 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7b33df…
03-24 00:23:17	will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5427d0…
03-21 14:45:19	will deepseek have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdc27d2…