Cold-Return-Sentencing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.50K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

78.9%

Resolved

Trades

234

lifetime

Volume

$183.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$785

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-11

last 11-04 07:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Politics

64% 70% -$6,022

Other

36% 79% +$2,498

Tech

0% 100% +$23

Crypto

0% 50% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	3	$18.7K	9,831	9,831	+0	No	+$718	06-06 08:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$15.7K	8,754	8,754	+0	No	+$1,739	06-01 02:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	5	$11.8K	16,826	1,818	+15,007	Yes	-$10,234	06-16 12:34
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	8	$9.1K	6,263	6,263	+0	No	-$112	06-26 21:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	10	$7.7K	4,819	4,819	+0	No	+$139	06-26 04:12
will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	4	$5.1K	3,468	2,081	+1,387	No	+$127	07-24 22:14
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	18	$4.9K	5,719	0	+5,719	No	+$820	10-20 06:08
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	6	$4.7K	5,753	0	+5,753	No	+$1,019	08-17 12:01
fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 total 0pt5	2	$4.0K	2,052	2,052	+0	Over	+$80	06-20 17:27
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$4.0K	4,105	0	+4,105	No	+$105	09-11 08:17
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	1	$4.0K	4,008	0	+4,008	Yes	+$8	09-22 19:41
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	2	$4.0K	2,079	2,079	+0	No	+$0	07-03 19:11
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	4	$3.8K	5,272	5,272	+0	Yes	-$1,771	06-15 20:52
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	2	$3.3K	1,699	1,699	+0	No	+$97	06-21 01:58
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	2	$3.1K	1,648	1,648	+0	No	+$144	07-02 10:42
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	3	$3.0K	2,065	1,046	+1,018	No	+$17	09-29 19:25
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	11	$3.0K	2,359	2,359	+0	No	+$27	06-19 20:16
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	2	$2.8K	2,933	0	+2,933	No	+$133	07-30 04:36
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	3	$2.5K	1,336	1,336	+0	Yes	+$125	06-19 21:18
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	1	$2.5K	2,578	0	+2,578	No	+$78	08-10 05:03
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	4	$2.5K	2,220	561	+1,660	No	+$153	10-12 03:09
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	2	$2.4K	1,429	1,429	+0	Yes	+$414	06-11 20:38
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	4	$2.3K	1,288	1,288	+0	No	-$56	10-25 08:35
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	3	$2.3K	2,811	0	+2,811	No	+$491	10-03 21:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	4	$2.3K	7,517	0	+7,517	Yes	-$2,283	06-15 20:52
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	2	$2.0K	1,124	1,124	+0	No	+$46	06-11 17:17
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	2	$2.0K	2,553	0	+2,553	No	+$513	09-24 10:30
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	2	$2.0K	1,081	1,081	+0	No	+$87	06-06 08:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$2.0K	4,305	0	+4,305	No	+$2,281	05-24 02:00
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	2	$2.0K	2,154	2,154	+0	No	-$1,991	09-22 19:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 07:59:10	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	133	84¢	$113	0x704ca6…
11-03 15:51:25	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	526	95¢	$500	0x680f89…
11-02 23:03:51	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	913	99¢	$900	0x03f4fc…
10-29 15:05:38	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	SELL	250	64¢	$160	0xa1c62c…
10-25 08:35:30	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	1,043	91¢	$949	0xb127cd…
10-24 20:29:44	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0xaed599…
10-23 19:57:42	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	910	100¢	$908	0xbe2746…
10-23 11:00:21	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	910	99¢	$900	0x79b57d…
10-23 10:52:41	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Yes	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0x0bd065…
10-23 10:11:56	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	226	3¢	$7	0x6fec04…
10-22 15:28:44	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0x35e484…
10-20 06:08:44	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x45e0e9…
10-18 07:08:17	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	751	93¢	$698	0x96bdd2…
10-17 11:39:45	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	BUY	1,043	96¢	$1,000	0x5d2644…
10-17 11:30:54	russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	No	BUY	851	94¢	$800	0x924c8b…
10-16 06:18:00	russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	No	BUY	652	92¢	$600	0x36e28e…
10-15 06:02:14	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by october 31 2026	No	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0xf7c283…
10-15 05:56:31	russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	No	BUY	402	87¢	$350	0xb62f70…
10-14 08:27:04	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	177	85¢	$150	0x8a89f4…
10-13 04:36:05	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	199	80¢	$160	0xa60f16…
10-13 03:35:21	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	236	80¢	$190	0x384537…
10-12 04:02:06	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	217	78¢	$170	0xa09aa7…
10-12 03:09:32	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	521	96¢	$500	0x1bd97f…
10-11 04:36:53	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	549	91¢	$500	0xeb1a3e…
10-11 03:12:59	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,158	86¢	$1,000	0x682761…
10-10 04:21:30	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	395	76¢	$300	0x4b2b25…
10-09 23:49:07	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	71¢	$40	0x9d1a3d…
10-09 23:47:52	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x330c2a…
10-09 23:44:35	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	127	71¢	$90	0x852425…
10-09 23:14:28	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	131	68¢	$90	0x7218b0…
10-09 23:00:10	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19	67¢	$13	0x345d7e…
10-09 22:57:05	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	68¢	$48	0xaf554a…
10-09 00:06:00	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	245	80¢	$195	0xbbc297…
10-08 22:42:26	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	561	88¢	$493	0xfcc950…
10-08 02:15:35	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	SELL	625	99¢	$619	0x2aae47…
10-07 20:43:15	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	337	89¢	$300	0x9cde27…
10-07 20:40:53	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	549	91¢	$500	0x7f51a8…
10-05 20:54:40	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	190	79¢	$150	0x176098…
10-03 21:38:04	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	451	89¢	$400	0x4f5514…
10-03 01:31:18	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	BUY	245	82¢	$200	0x2146f6…
10-02 22:47:36	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	274	73¢	$200	0xef9bde…
10-01 20:05:30	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	109	55¢	$60	0x36ff09…
10-01 16:11:27	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	201	75¢	$150	0x0ef370…
10-01 04:51:17	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	625	96¢	$600	0x1298a5…
10-01 04:48:05	russia ukraine peace talks by october 15 2026	No	BUY	510	82¢	$420	0xce1382…
09-30 00:19:29	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	BUY	1,149	87¢	$1,000	0xda209d…
09-29 19:25:50	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,018	98¢	$1,000	0xad952f…
09-29 17:50:03	Will "Digger" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	26	1¢	$0	0x8e210f…
09-29 17:49:53	Will "Digger" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	39	1¢	$0	0x6454ea…
09-29 12:33:56	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0x0ccb7c…
09-28 17:47:05	russia ukraine peace talks by october 15 2026	No	BUY	1,851	81¢	$1,500	0x0b8093…
09-27 15:20:53	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,046	95¢	$999	0xef2d31…
09-27 10:02:51	Will "Digger" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	39	13¢	$5	0xe69ca0…
09-26 22:05:24	Will "Digger" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x215f1f…
09-26 15:36:45	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	63	80¢	$50	0xd465a3…
09-26 14:58:41	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,046	96¢	$1,000	0x3a03c9…
09-24 10:30:41	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,160	86¢	$1,000	0x4b54cb…
09-23 20:10:17	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 24, 2026?	No	BUY	263	76¢	$200	0x6e328a…
09-23 09:56:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	Yes	BUY	2,051	98¢	$2,000	0x2fda14…
09-22 19:41:31	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,008	100¢	$4,000	0xb22702…
09-22 19:19:49	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,154	0¢	$9	0x09f217…
09-18 13:32:47	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,169	7¢	$150	0x043811…
09-15 11:32:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 21 2026	No	BUY	2,105	95¢	$2,000	0xaf9290…
09-15 11:26:24	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,154	93¢	$2,000	0xbac7d0…
09-14 05:45:54	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,393	75¢	$1,040	0xd0fb7d…
09-11 08:17:22	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	4,105	97¢	$4,000	0x41f4a3…
09-11 08:12:37	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	95¢	$1,900	0x52a2be…
08-23 07:11:03	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner	Team Spirit	BUY	568	88¢	$500	0xf7b032…
08-17 12:01:06	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	90	86¢	$77	0xf7ce96…
08-16 17:00:48	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	1,630	92¢	$1,500	0x9a476a…
08-16 08:43:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	1,124	89¢	$1,000	0x46fc59…
08-16 07:26:58	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	1,136	88¢	$1,000	0xe91ac6…
08-15 14:41:30	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	191	82¢	$157	0xcd3c0f…
08-14 09:21:13	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	1,266	79¢	$1,000	0x191cc6…
08-10 19:59:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	1,000	89¢	$890	0x567500…
08-10 05:04:30	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	1,440	69¢	$1,000	0x0e4725…
08-10 05:03:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	2,578	97¢	$2,500	0xd58d72…
08-06 16:04:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	658	76¢	$500	0x3e6ebc…
07-30 04:36:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	2,063	97¢	$2,000	0xf7cd45…
07-29 04:01:47	US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	870	92¢	$800	0x5fc8e6…
07-24 22:14:04	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1,106	90¢	$1,000	0xdc9536…
07-21 16:07:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	814	90¢	$733	0xb781e7…
07-21 14:04:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	Yes	SELL	449	86¢	$386	0x473639…
07-17 20:30:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	814	86¢	$700	0xfb0490…
07-17 18:38:48	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	281	71¢	$200	0x606471…
07-17 17:44:19	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	449	67¢	$300	0x809cfa…
07-08 09:55:55	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	2,081	93¢	$1,940	0x89efd4…
07-08 09:41:07	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2,081	96¢	$2,000	0xe15a3e…
07-03 19:11:34	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	No	SELL	2,079	96¢	$2,000	0x31719f…
07-03 15:40:13	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	No	BUY	2,079	96¢	$2,000	0x0a49f1…
07-02 10:43:23	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	371	99¢	$367	0xfa208a…
07-02 10:42:32	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1,648	100¢	$1,643	0xe3c571…
06-27 21:38:17	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	371	70¢	$260	0x4c4a78…
06-27 21:37:19	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	SELL	293	90¢	$263	0xfff323…
06-27 06:01:25	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 29	No	BUY	293	82¢	$240	0x1c312c…
06-27 05:33:59	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	452	55¢	$249	0xba31c6…
06-26 21:06:47	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1,648	91¢	$1,499	0x43a729…
06-26 21:05:40	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1,545	97¢	$1,498	0x20dc85…
06-26 20:49:55	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	452	50¢	$226	0x3cd3c8…
06-26 20:44:47	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	696	17¢	$121	0x635665…