Frilly-Handicap — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6.75K

Unrealized P&L

+$145

Hit rate

88.1%

Resolved

122

Trades

701

lifetime

Volume

$103.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$147

Open exposure

$876

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-07

last 10-24 00:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 59 days

Categories

Other

37% 48% +$1,781

Crypto

30% 95% +$3,601

Politics

19% 67% +$1,332

Tech

14% 63% +$38

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	+516	$250	82¢	$421	+$170	09-29 10:43
Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	+2,000	$310	16¢	$310	+$0	10-24 00:56
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	+1,005	$171	15¢	$146	-$25	10-16 23:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	8	$8.8K	4,829	4,829	+0	No	+$643	04-01 13:47
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?	21	$8.4K	4,779	4,779	+0	No	+$1,173	04-01 20:04
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	10	$6.1K	4,529	4,529	+0	Yes	+$2,820	10-07 00:56
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw?	9	$5.9K	2,989	2,989	+0	Yes	+$20	06-08 10:00
congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	4	$5.8K	2,959	2,959	+0	Yes	+$26	06-23 20:35
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$3.9K	3,900	0	+3,900	No	+$20	06-03 00:15
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$2.9K	3,186	0	+3,186	No	+$270	02-11 19:48
will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	3	$2.8K	2,583	500	+2,083	Yes	+$168	06-09 16:57
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	3	$2.7K	2,888	0	+2,888	No	+$205	02-07 01:12
deepseek v4 released by april 24	4	$2.4K	3,419	0	+3,419	Yes	-$2,431	04-24 00:05
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	4	$2.1K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$825	05-02 02:54
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?	2	$2.0K	1,200	1,200	+0	No	+$340	04-30 21:07
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	24	$2.0K	1,660	1,660	+0	Yes	+$578	06-09 11:46
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale?	5	$1.8K	940	940	+0	No	+$23	05-02 03:00
will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	46	$1.8K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$1,389	07-02 14:00
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	12	$1.8K	1,091	1,400	-309	Yes	-$32	04-27 18:55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	4	$1.7K	1,330	1,330	+0	Yes	+$251	04-16 18:08
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	2	$1.6K	1,809	0	+1,809	No	+$193	03-15 13:31
total internet blackout in iran by june 30 2026	12	$1.5K	1,921	0	+1,921	No	+$441	06-12 12:08
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	6	$1.4K	1,202	1,202	+0	No	+$78	06-08 10:35
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	26	$1.3K	1,808	1,808	+0	No	-$1,009	06-23 14:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$1.3K	700	700	+0	No	+$14	04-09 21:43
over 30m committed to the laso finance public sale 196 325	19	$1.1K	1,177	1,177	+0	No	+$389	07-04 16:25
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	4	$992	520	519	+1	No	+$5	04-26 01:38
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?	2	$959	533	533	+0	Yes	+$22	03-25 21:47
Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	1	$918	977	0	+977	Yes	+$59	03-26 00:05
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	20	$917	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	10-23 20:01
gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	6	$876	600	600	+0	Yes	+$168	07-08 01:21
will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	5	$860	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$140	06-09 14:58
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	6	$857	841	841	+0	Yes	+$51	06-17 14:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 00:56:11	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	15¢	$7	0xbc6a4c…
10-24 00:56:11	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	407	15¢	$61	0x70b0a4…
10-24 00:56:11	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	15¢	$22	0x63b8ae…
10-23 23:12:41	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	15¢	$13	0x383d78…
10-23 23:00:29	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	312	15¢	$47	0x64b7ec…
10-23 20:01:02	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	636	7¢	$45	0xc32cb3…
10-23 19:54:54	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,700	27¢	$459	0xfb2f9c…
10-17 12:35:47	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	16¢	$23	0xbdbea3…
10-17 12:07:33	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0x594f15…
10-17 12:07:15	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0xee05fa…
10-17 12:03:56	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	16¢	$0	0xde25b6…
10-17 11:22:45	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x6b3ee1…
10-17 11:22:42	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	16¢	$13	0x562664…
10-17 11:22:41	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0xd22505…
10-17 11:22:41	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	276	16¢	$44	0xc8c415…
10-17 11:22:41	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	16¢	$12	0x81dc53…
10-17 11:22:41	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	16¢	$1	0x168862…
10-17 01:23:15	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	278	16¢	$44	0x43cdbd…
10-17 01:04:51	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	16¢	$3	0xe52b64…
10-16 23:29:54	Will there be 3 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	24¢	$7	0x672751…
10-16 23:29:38	Will there be 3 US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	24¢	$31	0xe982aa…
10-16 23:17:11	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb1622c…
10-16 23:15:45	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	499	17¢	$85	0xa807e6…
10-16 23:15:44	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	17¢	$85	0x6801f9…
10-11 10:49:20	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	8¢	$2	0x7ebbc6…
10-11 06:58:05	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m?	Yes	BUY	1	42¢	$0	0x35d2d9…
10-11 06:57:14	Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m?	Yes	BUY	44	42¢	$19	0x7d37bd…
10-11 06:18:06	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	139	8¢	$11	0x1e9930…
10-07 04:17:20	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x300240…
10-07 00:56:35	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	SELL	644	100¢	$641	0x267ffc…
10-07 00:56:35	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	SELL	350	100¢	$348	0x142f27…
10-07 00:56:29	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	SELL	810	100¢	$806	0x4a2f88…
10-07 00:55:35	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0xbb924f…
10-07 00:48:05	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xa08e9b…
10-07 00:01:43	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,598	98¢	$1,563	0xed26b2…
10-06 23:55:23	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	SELL	102	98¢	$100	0x95fd56…
10-06 23:26:59	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	SELL	495	97¢	$481	0xf617e2…
10-06 23:23:26	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	BUY	283	71¢	$201	0x54d81f…
10-06 23:22:40	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	No	SELL	87	29¢	$25	0x26057a…
10-02 17:59:35	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	226	99¢	$224	0x946249…
10-02 17:58:54	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	418	97¢	$406	0x800fa2…
10-02 14:53:56	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	83	35¢	$29	0x2ef5ea…
10-02 13:04:50	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Yes	BUY	129	90¢	$116	0x2b9658…
10-02 12:53:24	Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	No	SELL	150	92¢	$138	0x83fddd…
10-02 10:23:24	Over $45M committed to the Jumper public sale?	No	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x53eede…
10-02 08:59:42	Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	No	BUY	110	50¢	$55	0x54d2a8…
10-02 08:43:20	Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb22ff6…
10-02 08:35:32	Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xd290f0…
10-02 08:34:45	Over $45M committed to the Jumper public sale?	No	BUY	177	30¢	$52	0x41cdd4…
10-02 00:21:27	Over $40M committed to the Jumper public sale?	No	BUY	202	34¢	$69	0xb87ce5…
10-02 00:20:35	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	110	34¢	$37	0x158b95…
10-01 19:24:41	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	500	36¢	$180	0x41c6a0…
10-01 15:08:47	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	249	37¢	$92	0xca53cf…
10-01 15:08:23	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	143	37¢	$53	0xfb7a78…
10-01 15:08:23	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	73	37¢	$27	0x8cddb8…
10-01 15:08:23	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?	Yes	BUY	35	37¢	$13	0x720c4f…
10-01 11:38:00	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	58	0¢	$0	0xcfab15…
10-01 11:37:33	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	0¢	$0	0x5747f4…
09-30 06:45:06	will the next gpt sol model 6pt1 debut with a humanitys last exam score of 55 or higher	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x2d11a5…
09-30 04:04:02	will the next gpt sol model 6pt1 debut at a score of at least 1480 by june 30 2027	No	SELL	140	84¢	$118	0xcceca2…
09-30 00:34:33	will the next gpt sol model 6pt1 debut with a humanitys last exam score of 45 or higher	Yes	SELL	80	85¢	$68	0xb44a52…
09-29 23:58:45	will the next gpt sol model 6pt1 debut with a humanitys last exam score of 45 or higher	Yes	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x966ff4…
09-29 23:38:41	Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Yes	BUY	322	12¢	$39	0x026fc2…
09-29 23:18:14	will the next gpt sol model 6pt1 debut with a humanitys last exam score of 45 or higher	Yes	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0xb16e14…
09-29 23:17:02	will the next gpt sol model 6pt1 debut with a humanitys last exam score of 55 or higher	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0xb9766e…
09-29 23:16:20	will the next gpt sol model 6pt1 debut with a humanitys last exam score of 55 or higher	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x151d4c…
09-29 23:07:12	will the next gpt sol model 6pt1 debut with a humanitys last exam score of 50 or higher	No	SELL	100	30¢	$30	0x5a88f1…
09-29 23:05:53	will the next gpt sol model 6pt1 debut with a humanitys last exam score of 40 or higher	Yes	BUY	700	90¢	$628	0x1175c7…
09-29 23:01:17	will the next gpt sol model 6pt1 debut with a humanitys last exam score of 55 or higher	No	BUY	409	80¢	$326	0x7a4608…
09-29 23:00:23	will the next gpt sol model 6pt1 debut with a humanitys last exam score of 50 or higher	No	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x38a629…
09-29 22:59:48	will the next gpt sol model 6pt1 debut with a humanitys last exam score of 50 or higher	No	BUY	182	24¢	$44	0x9a6369…
09-29 22:56:57	will the next gpt sol model 6pt1 debut with a humanitys last exam score of 45 or higher	Yes	BUY	280	72¢	$203	0x46321c…
09-29 22:51:59	will the next gpt sol model 6pt1 debut at a score of at least 1480 by june 30 2027	No	BUY	210	77¢	$161	0x745e7f…
09-29 22:50:26	will the next gpt sol model 6pt1 debut at a score of at least 1440 by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	282	41¢	$116	0x7ff0fb…
09-29 18:33:38	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	145	20¢	$29	0xfc853a…
09-29 18:32:15	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	42	20¢	$8	0xec5f5f…
09-29 18:28:44	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	56	20¢	$11	0x150e65…
09-29 18:27:57	Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,427	15¢	$214	0x8b4c39…
09-29 18:27:15	Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Yes	BUY	73	15¢	$11	0x479820…
09-29 15:48:41	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	23¢	$2	0xa7e204…
09-29 15:45:21	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	492	23¢	$113	0x0ec846…
09-29 15:35:23	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	Yes	SELL	307	5¢	$16	0x417070…
09-29 10:45:47	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	Yes	SELL	470	29¢	$134	0x68f669…
09-29 10:45:24	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	BUY	4,119	37¢	$1,524	0xdc33e2…
09-29 10:43:42	Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	361	48¢	$173	0xa081de…
09-29 10:41:33	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	73	11¢	$8	0xc8a0c7…
09-29 01:10:45	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	39	40¢	$16	0xd31b92…
09-28 17:32:29	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	53	40¢	$21	0x6addd9…
09-28 17:14:27	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	19	40¢	$7	0x1dcc3e…
09-28 16:05:59	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	Yes	BUY	185	24¢	$44	0x8b0244…
09-28 16:04:08	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	Yes	BUY	197	23¢	$45	0xffb243…
09-28 15:35:20	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xc86ed9…
09-28 13:45:38	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	136	40¢	$54	0x2a5c45…
09-28 13:34:32	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xcd0090…
09-28 09:27:51	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	Yes	BUY	395	23¢	$91	0x2be083…
09-27 18:46:14	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	BUY	410	30¢	$122	0xc8822e…
09-27 18:45:15	Will Waymo launch in San Diego, CA by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	77¢	$48	0x7d53b0…
09-26 23:11:51	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	437	26¢	$114	0x70d7d1…
09-26 23:10:44	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	664	23¢	$151	0x629e78…
09-24 21:49:57	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	16¢	$17	0x15ace9…