Shrill-Settlement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.6%

Resolved

Trades

345

lifetime

Volume

$10.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 06-13 04:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

73% 67% +$7

Other

19% — —

Politics

8% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	20	$766	3,859	776	+3,083	open	—	02-03 13:13
btc updown 5m 1774311300	4	$604	315	315	+0	open	—	03-24 00:19
gc settle above 5100 jan 2026	5	$421	280	280	+0	open	—	01-30 06:44
btc updown 5m 1774424700	2	$407	416	0	+416	open	—	03-25 07:49
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	8	$354	244	244	+0	open	—	03-05 05:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	2	$310	317	0	+317	Up	+$7	05-14 05:18
btc updown 5m 1772588100	4	$256	144	143	+1	open	—	03-04 01:39
eth updown 5m 1772587800	3	$242	134	119	+15	open	—	03-04 01:34
btc updown 15m 1769752800	2	$223	179	176	+3	open	—	01-30 06:03
btc updown 5m 1774251300	2	$206	109	109	+0	open	—	03-23 07:38
btc updown 5m 1772588400	3	$205	108	104	+3	open	—	03-04 01:45
btc updown 5m 1773990600	2	$204	105	105	+0	open	—	03-20 07:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	3	$201	217	0	+217	open	—	05-29 01:09
btc updown 5m 1774236900	1	$200	202	0	+202	open	—	03-23 03:39
btc updown 5m 1774831200	2	$200	212	0	+212	open	—	03-30 00:44
btc updown 5m 1776141900	2	$200	216	0	+216	open	—	04-14 04:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	2	$200	203	0	+203	open	—	05-22 01:04
btc updown 15m 1769754600	6	$189	136	135	+1	open	—	01-30 06:43
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	5	$173	177	177	+0	open	—	03-05 05:37
btc updown 15m 1769760900	9	$151	171	117	+54	open	—	01-30 08:25
btc updown 15m 1769755500	3	$151	224	0	+224	open	—	01-30 06:49
btc updown 15m 1769559300	7	$136	194	39	+155	open	—	01-28 00:25
btc updown 15m 1769751900	3	$122	89	87	+1	open	—	01-30 05:56
si above 100 jan 2026	3	$117	66	66	+0	open	—	01-30 06:47
btc updown 15m 1769566500	9	$113	151	0	+151	open	—	01-28 02:27
btc updown 5m 1773038400	3	$110	108	6	+103	open	—	03-09 06:44
btc updown 5m 1776127200	2	$101	146	0	+146	open	—	04-14 00:44
btc updown 5m 1774251600	2	$101	110	0	+110	open	—	03-23 07:44
btc updown 5m 1773988500	2	$101	126	0	+126	open	—	03-20 06:39
btc updown 5m 1774327800	1	$100	104	0	+104	open	—	03-24 04:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 04:59:52	cs2 fal2 mnte 2026 06 13	Team Falcons	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x633615…
06-13 04:59:31	cs2 vit mouz 2026 06 13	Vitality	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0xd4f37e…
06-13 04:59:13	cs2 ts7 9z 2026 06 13	Spirit	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0xe26cc6…
06-03 04:34:58	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0xbebe41…
06-03 04:34:42	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	91¢	$15	0x47fb79…
06-03 04:34:20	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0x937cc5…
06-02 15:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0xb760ac…
06-01 15:14:28	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0xd04977…
06-01 15:13:08	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xdfcc95…
06-01 15:11:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x9fae5a…
06-01 14:54:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xa4e2c7…
05-29 01:09:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	105	96¢	$100	0xf322fd…
05-29 01:09:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xe5eaee…
05-29 01:07:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xe9073d…
05-28 12:37:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x771905…
05-28 12:33:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x1da61d…
05-28 11:24:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x19ee4c…
05-22 01:04:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xec39bc…
05-22 01:04:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xa0b9a9…
05-14 05:18:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	311	98¢	$305	0x4b2291…
05-14 05:17:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xbb4b1f…
05-09 04:54:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x19056c…
05-08 02:27:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	36¢	$1	0xf52472…
05-08 02:26:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xf687a3…
04-17 04:19:14	btc updown 5m 1776399300	Up	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x0e1c3e…
04-15 05:28:40	btc updown 5m 1776230700	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x37d372…
04-14 05:34:31	btc updown 5m 1776144600	Down	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0xd468d0…
04-14 04:50:01	btc updown 5m 1776141900	Up	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x8fc8d7…
04-14 04:49:47	btc updown 5m 1776141900	Up	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x3d3e84…
04-14 04:43:53	btc updown 5m 1776141600	Down	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x69ec44…
04-14 04:42:33	bitcoin above 74k on april 14	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xc53147…
04-14 00:44:35	btc updown 5m 1776127200	Up	BUY	144	69¢	$100	0xa3f9e2…
04-14 00:40:53	btc updown 5m 1776127200	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x56aaba…
04-08 07:41:25	btc updown 5m 1775634000	Down	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x866ba2…
04-08 07:40:47	btc updown 5m 1775634000	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x265712…
04-01 06:38:31	btc updown 5m 1775025300	Up	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x68fcd0…
04-01 06:38:17	btc updown 5m 1775025300	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x561e89…
04-01 06:34:15	btc updown 5m 1775025000	Up	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x24f696…
04-01 06:34:03	btc updown 5m 1775025000	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x28319e…
03-30 02:00:28	btc updown 5m 1774835700	Down	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xebf650…
03-30 01:54:14	btc updown 5m 1774835400	Down	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xe1e4b9…
03-30 00:44:54	btc updown 5m 1774831200	Up	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x27645b…
03-30 00:44:40	btc updown 5m 1774831200	Up	BUY	107	94¢	$100	0xcb73e1…
03-25 07:49:53	btc updown 5m 1774424700	Down	BUY	209	99¢	$207	0xd086e0…
03-25 07:49:13	btc updown 5m 1774424700	Down	BUY	207	97¢	$200	0x0da6e5…
03-25 00:49:11	btc updown 5m 1774399500	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x57ba73…
03-24 04:54:17	btc updown 5m 1774327800	Up	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xe38655…
03-24 00:24:55	btc updown 5m 1774311600	Down	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xd8881c…
03-24 00:19:35	btc updown 5m 1774311300	Down	SELL	204	99¢	$202	0x799b59…
03-24 00:19:09	btc updown 5m 1774311300	Down	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0xb89fb3…
03-24 00:17:45	btc updown 5m 1774311300	Down	SELL	111	92¢	$102	0xf15481…
03-24 00:17:29	btc updown 5m 1774311300	Down	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x1c3949…
03-23 08:15:49	btc updown 5m 1774253700	Down	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x2a62d8…
03-23 08:15:33	btc updown 5m 1774253700	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe353c4…
03-23 07:44:41	btc updown 5m 1774251600	Up	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x6b343f…
03-23 07:42:21	btc updown 5m 1774251600	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x9516c1…
03-23 07:38:57	btc updown 5m 1774251300	Up	SELL	109	97¢	$106	0x17eff3…
03-23 07:38:27	btc updown 5m 1774251300	Up	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0xa9bc3a…
03-23 03:39:49	btc updown 5m 1774236900	Down	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x7f8681…
03-20 07:19:41	btc updown 5m 1773990900	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xf63b04…
03-20 07:14:01	btc updown 5m 1773990600	Down	SELL	105	99¢	$104	0x624846…
03-20 07:12:49	btc updown 5m 1773990600	Down	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x763f6d…
03-20 07:01:49	btc updown 5m 1773990000	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x37834a…
03-20 06:39:47	btc updown 5m 1773988500	Down	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0xc309ae…
03-20 06:39:27	btc updown 5m 1773988500	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x7e196b…
03-18 08:40:11	btc updown 5m 1773822900	Up	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x4506f9…
03-18 03:19:55	btc updown 5m 1773803700	Up	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xb75dc6…
03-17 07:48:53	btc updown 5m 1773733500	Down	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0x0d2e6e…
03-17 07:48:01	btc updown 5m 1773733500	Down	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x8492f8…
03-16 06:14:35	btc updown 5m 1773641400	Down	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x3c32fb…
03-16 05:04:57	btc updown 5m 1773637200	Down	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0xe57f45…
03-16 03:36:03	eth updown 5m 1773632100	Up	SELL	3	16¢	$0	0x642328…
03-16 03:35:25	eth updown 5m 1773632100	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x9ab8c3…
03-09 06:44:47	btc updown 5m 1773038400	Down	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xf7e927…
03-09 06:44:25	btc updown 5m 1773038400	Down	SELL	6	92¢	$5	0xd99b0f…
03-09 06:42:15	btc updown 5m 1773038400	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x8e96bc…
03-05 06:30:23	bitcoin above 72k on march 5	Yes	SELL	33	61¢	$20	0xa89a41…
03-05 06:28:37	btc updown 5m 1772691900	Down	SELL	32	90¢	$29	0x365090…
03-05 06:28:21	btc updown 5m 1772691900	Down	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0xb7eb6c…
03-05 06:26:43	btc updown 5m 1772691900	Up	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0xf21299…
03-05 06:26:11	btc updown 5m 1772691900	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x27d016…
03-05 06:19:01	btc updown 5m 1772691300	Up	SELL	7	88¢	$6	0x7baa84…
03-05 06:18:43	btc updown 5m 1772691300	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x5d3c04…
03-05 06:18:31	btc updown 5m 1772691300	Up	SELL	13	55¢	$7	0xf0e218…
03-05 06:18:21	btc updown 5m 1772691300	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x005a21…
03-05 06:16:57	btc updown 5m 1772691300	Down	SELL	9	59¢	$5	0x35e384…
03-05 06:16:39	btc updown 5m 1772691300	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x1e55bb…
03-05 06:02:59	bitcoin above 72k on march 5	Yes	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x933757…
03-05 05:51:47	btc updown 5m 1772689800	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x0275d8…
03-05 05:42:15	eth updown 5m 1772689200	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xd4d82b…
03-05 05:37:01	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	19	66¢	$12	0x9267cc…
03-05 05:36:53	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	24	84¢	$20	0xca8514…
03-05 05:36:35	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	24	82¢	$20	0x5a83a3…
03-05 05:36:21	will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	Yes	SELL	52	56¢	$29	0x8e1068…
03-05 05:36:07	deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	Yes	SELL	35	55¢	$19	0x5e84d9…
03-05 05:35:49	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0xfccde3…
03-05 05:35:49	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	123	82¢	$101	0x9815e0…
03-05 05:35:47	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	26	88¢	$23	0x03ca51…
03-05 05:34:55	will qatar strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	50	64¢	$32	0x928ca3…
03-05 05:34:39	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 5 748 625	No	SELL	15	87¢	$13	0xca328e…