Wilted-Cinnamon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$169

Unrealized P&L

-$106

Hit rate

96.4%

Resolved

Trades

626

lifetime

Volume

$27.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

$394

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 16:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Crypto

64% 93% -$91

Other

20% 28% -$158

Politics

8% 100% +$81

Tech

8% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	+200	$176	98¢	$196	+$20	10-25 08:04
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	+200	$166	70¢	$141	-$25	10-08 08:49
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?	No	-70	-$49	76¢	$-54	-$5	06-05 02:25
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	+150	$100	2¢	$3	-$97	10-25 09:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	17	$3.0K	1,574	1,574	+0	Yes	+$11	01-26 09:50
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	12	$2.2K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	10-24 20:16
will ethereum reach 2600 august 17 23 2026	1	$1.2K	1,226	0	+1,226	No	+$54	08-20 00:05
will ethereum reach 2800 september 14 20 2026	1	$1.2K	1,200	0	+1,200	No	+$34	09-18 09:18
Will Ethereum reach $2,900 September 7-13?	4	$1.1K	1,188	0	+1,188	No	+$53	09-11 14:03
will ethereum dip to 1200 in march 2026	10	$752	381	381	+0	No	+$2	03-22 05:54
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	7	$602	328	328	+0	Yes	+$3	02-19 18:42
will bitcoin dip to 56k june 15 21 2026	15	$544	368	188	+180	No	+$7	06-20 03:28
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24?	5	$526	264	264	+0	No	+$1	05-23 04:03
will ethereum reach 2200 august 3 9 2026	4	$450	229	229	-0	No	+$7	08-09 14:19
will ethereum reach 2300 july 27 august 2 2026	4	$433	220	220	+0	No	+$6	08-01 05:51
will ethereum reach 2000 july 6 12 2026	3	$416	210	210	+0	No	+$3	07-12 14:12
will ethereum reach 2200 july 13 19 2026	2	$413	210	210	+0	No	+$6	07-18 05:39
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	4	$409	210	210	+0	No	+$1	02-25 10:47
will ethereum dip to 1400 june 22 28 2026	4	$408	239	200	+39	No	+$2	06-28 17:27
will bitcoin reach 78k july 6 12 2026	2	$398	200	200	+0	No	+$2	07-08 05:56
will ethereum dip to 1400 june 29 july 5 2026	2	$396	200	200	+0	No	+$3	07-04 07:13
will bitcoin dip to 48k june 29 july 5 2026	2	$394	200	200	+0	No	+$2	07-01 04:00
will ethereum reach 1800 june 8 14 2026	2	$355	182	182	+0	No	+$5	06-14 06:19
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	2	$352	200	200	+0	open	—	10-27 16:37
will ethereum dip to 1300 june 8 14 2026	3	$343	176	176	+0	No	+$7	06-13 01:26
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?	2	$339	170	170	+0	No	+$1	05-17 22:11
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 11-17?	7	$338	170	170	+0	No	+$1	05-16 18:54
Will XRP reach $2.10 May 11-17?	2	$338	170	170	+0	No	+$1	05-14 06:52
will bitcoin dip to 57k on june 23	2	$338	170	170	+0	No	+$2	06-24 01:26
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 11-17?	6	$336	169	169	+0	No	+$1	05-12 08:11
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10?	3	$335	168	168	+0	No	+$1	05-10 04:25
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 27-May 3?	4	$322	163	163	+0	No	+$3	05-01 07:18
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3?	2	$318	160	160	+0	No	+$1	05-03 02:12
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 4-10?	3	$318	160	160	+0	No	+$2	05-06 06:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 16:37:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0x795188…
10-27 16:34:12	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	177	61¢	$108	0xd65a5b…
10-27 16:31:53	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	23	62¢	$14	0xc66c50…
10-27 16:31:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x4552a3…
10-27 03:42:48	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0x47f2c9…
10-27 03:42:35	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0x5749c4…
10-27 01:15:24	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	BUY	150	75¢	$112	0x701493…
10-27 01:14:32	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	150	77¢	$116	0xb5a705…
10-26 10:54:11	Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	SELL	150	71¢	$106	0x335f09…
10-26 10:49:39	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	45	71¢	$32	0x2619d6…
10-26 10:49:39	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	9	71¢	$7	0x060795…
10-26 10:49:38	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	25	71¢	$18	0xd0cf0e…
10-26 10:49:38	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	45	71¢	$32	0x55da30…
10-26 10:49:21	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0xe18213…
10-26 10:49:15	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	3	71¢	$2	0xe9d69b…
10-26 10:49:11	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	17	71¢	$12	0xe8b29d…
10-25 21:49:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0xb7e0ae…
10-25 12:23:18	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	150	84¢	$126	0x33426d…
10-25 11:47:36	Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	BUY	150	84¢	$126	0x84c184…
10-25 09:41:42	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	150	66¢	$100	0x896e77…
10-25 08:04:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x904f71…
10-25 05:14:54	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	150	74¢	$111	0x74bbe5…
10-25 04:49:11	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	200	66¢	$132	0x4b955b…
10-24 23:18:17	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x04f9ec…
10-24 20:27:57	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	150	68¢	$102	0x1303fc…
10-24 20:16:21	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x9387f1…
10-23 14:34:39	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	250	92¢	$230	0xd01b02…
10-23 11:10:08	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0xbcff67…
10-23 08:18:32	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	200	92¢	$184	0xdb94a1…
10-23 08:18:03	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	309	92¢	$284	0x1cb185…
10-23 08:18:02	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	348	92¢	$320	0xcdcbc1…
10-23 07:01:53	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x069d34…
10-22 08:33:53	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	31	92¢	$28	0xffebed…
10-20 01:04:36	Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$5	0x1ebae2…
10-17 01:06:11	Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	2¢	$4	0x7460fe…
10-15 13:03:08	Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0x6f6096…
10-13 21:42:30	Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0xabdb44…
10-08 08:49:16	Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0xbd4fb4…
10-05 18:43:16	Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	155	4¢	$6	0x0fb7e9…
10-03 03:35:47	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	38	92¢	$35	0x76e47c…
10-03 03:35:18	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xd79531…
10-03 03:35:14	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	645	92¢	$594	0xd24630…
10-03 03:34:14	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	506	92¢	$466	0x847679…
10-01 23:24:06	any of the cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime	Yes	SELL	100	43¢	$43	0x8d94e9…
10-01 21:08:11	any of the cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime	Yes	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0xc07122…
10-01 20:23:47	Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	155	7¢	$11	0xeca34c…
09-29 01:16:17	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xb1cecf…
09-18 09:18:18	will ethereum reach 2800 september 14 20 2026	No	BUY	1,200	97¢	$1,166	0x6a7f8c…
09-11 14:03:00	Will Ethereum reach $2,900 September 7-13?	No	BUY	156	96¢	$149	0xf82bf6…
09-11 14:02:43	Will Ethereum reach $2,900 September 7-13?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xa7d263…
09-11 14:00:43	Will Ethereum reach $2,900 September 7-13?	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$955	0x8e38b1…
09-11 13:59:43	Will Ethereum reach $2,900 September 7-13?	No	BUY	22	96¢	$21	0xf34e9e…
09-06 01:03:39	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 August 31-September 6?	Yes	SELL	848	0¢	$1	0x42b857…
09-04 13:26:12	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 August 31-September 6?	Yes	SELL	152	1¢	$1	0xa7c611…
09-03 15:35:15	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 August 31-September 6?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x719d9b…
09-03 14:48:57	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 August 31-September 6?	No	BUY	45	97¢	$44	0xd21a62…
08-31 01:57:42	will ethereum dip to 2300 august 24 30 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xa62963…
08-30 23:35:06	will ethereum dip to 2400 august 24 30 2026	No	BUY	195	51¢	$99	0xd8beab…
08-30 23:35:06	will ethereum dip to 2400 august 24 30 2026	No	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x4bec3a…
08-27 08:29:58	will ethereum reach 2800 august 24 30 2026	No	BUY	279	93¢	$259	0x72abf8…
08-20 00:05:25	will ethereum reach 2600 august 17 23 2026	No	BUY	1,226	96¢	$1,172	0xd0e013…
08-19 15:06:48	will ethereum reach 2200 august 17 23 2026	No	BUY	54	97¢	$52	0xb21f2f…
08-19 15:06:12	will ethereum reach 2200 august 17 23 2026	No	BUY	189	97¢	$183	0x42ae2d…
08-13 14:13:18	will ethereum reach 2100 august 10 16 2026	No	BUY	115	97¢	$111	0xd144fd…
08-13 14:07:13	will ethereum reach 2100 august 10 16 2026	No	BUY	115	97¢	$111	0x156225…
08-09 14:19:15	will ethereum reach 2200 august 3 9 2026	No	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0x508521…
08-09 14:19:09	will ethereum reach 2200 august 3 9 2026	No	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0xb2c84b…
08-09 14:19:00	will ethereum reach 2200 august 3 9 2026	No	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0x39550e…
08-05 08:50:27	will ethereum reach 2200 august 3 9 2026	No	BUY	229	97¢	$222	0x6a5ba7…
08-01 05:51:36	will ethereum reach 2300 july 27 august 2 2026	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x487fb8…
08-01 03:09:06	will ethereum reach 2300 july 27 august 2 2026	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xe75e8e…
08-01 01:19:00	will ethereum reach 2300 july 27 august 2 2026	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x70af19…
07-28 08:06:01	will ethereum reach 2300 july 27 august 2 2026	No	BUY	220	97¢	$213	0xb69486…
07-18 05:39:30	will ethereum reach 2200 july 13 19 2026	No	SELL	210	100¢	$210	0x28bad3…
07-14 14:16:01	will ethereum reach 2200 july 13 19 2026	No	BUY	210	97¢	$203	0xe32913…
07-12 14:12:49	will ethereum reach 2000 july 6 12 2026	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x060364…
07-12 14:10:02	will ethereum reach 2000 july 6 12 2026	No	SELL	186	100¢	$186	0xbb3d33…
07-12 03:55:49	will ethereum reach 2000 july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	210	98¢	$207	0xc8d16c…
07-08 05:56:52	will bitcoin reach 78k july 6 12 2026	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xc5bbb4…
07-07 19:47:07	will bitcoin reach 78k july 6 12 2026	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xc4b293…
07-04 07:13:07	will ethereum dip to 1400 june 29 july 5 2026	No	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x1d3b0a…
07-03 15:29:58	will ethereum dip to 1400 june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0x8907b9…
07-01 04:00:58	will bitcoin dip to 48k june 29 july 5 2026	No	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0x3770d3…
06-30 13:35:11	will bitcoin dip to 48k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x4983c4…
06-29 03:12:20	will ethereum dip to 1500 june 22 28 2026	No	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0x261335…
06-28 17:27:37	will ethereum dip to 1400 june 22 28 2026	No	BUY	39	97¢	$38	0x45aae0…
06-28 06:14:32	will ethereum dip to 1500 june 22 28 2026	No	BUY	43	89¢	$38	0xc52fac…
06-28 04:34:59	will bitcoin reach 66k june 22 28 2026	No	SELL	156	100¢	$156	0x105ab5…
06-27 02:46:28	will bitcoin reach 66k june 22 28 2026	No	BUY	156	97¢	$152	0xbbbe55…
06-26 03:56:49	will ethereum dip to 1400 june 22 28 2026	No	SELL	200	93¢	$185	0x2c1d23…
06-24 16:57:05	will ethereum dip to 1400 june 22 28 2026	No	BUY	180	92¢	$166	0xca6ca8…
06-24 01:26:38	will bitcoin dip to 57k on june 23	No	SELL	170	100¢	$170	0xeafffa…
06-23 13:41:37	will bitcoin dip to 57k on june 23	No	BUY	170	99¢	$168	0x1463f5…
06-23 08:24:28	will ethereum dip to 1400 june 22 28 2026	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xa2ab5a…
06-20 03:28:52	will bitcoin dip to 56k june 15 21 2026	No	BUY	180	99¢	$178	0xdaf199…
06-19 07:30:59	will bitcoin dip to 56k june 15 21 2026	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xe834eb…
06-19 07:29:29	will bitcoin dip to 56k june 15 21 2026	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x596928…
06-19 07:17:22	will bitcoin dip to 56k june 15 21 2026	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x70e38e…
06-19 04:00:14	will bitcoin dip to 56k june 15 21 2026	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x0c4c90…
06-19 03:57:35	will bitcoin dip to 56k june 15 21 2026	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x6a4741…