Vibrant-Dragonfly — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$89

Unrealized P&L

+$25

Hit rate

55.3%

Resolved

Trades

3,243

lifetime

Volume

$251.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$78

Open exposure

$876

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 07-22 04:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

59% 0% $-65

Sports

38% 76% $-23

Politics

2% — —

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 103 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+844	$661	99¢	$836	+$175	07-08 18:54
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	+250	$58	14¢	$35	$-22	06-26 15:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	+500	$132	1¢	$5	$-127	06-30 14:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	52	$5.7K	5,548	4,004	+1,544	open	—	07-08 18:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	45	$5.3K	4,260	3,570	+690	open	—	07-06 23:30
ncaa tournament no 15 seed to win a game	24	$4.3K	2,302	2,302	-0	open	—	03-21 02:30
nba hou phx 2026 04 07 spread away 1pt5	30	$4.1K	3,879	3,879	+0	open	—	04-08 05:17
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7?	98	$3.7K	3,729	3,698	+31	Down	$-38	05-07 15:40
cbb stlou ga 2026 03 19	8	$3.1K	1,569	1,569	+0	open	—	03-20 03:37
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	28	$3.0K	2,209	2,445	-236	open	—	07-07 00:53
spy up or down on june 12 2026	23	$2.8K	3,448	1,250	+2,198	open	—	06-12 13:57
cbb ala mich 2026 03 27 total 172pt5	6	$2.8K	3,188	2,388	+800	open	—	03-27 09:25
nhl car ott 2026 04 05	4	$2.4K	1,194	1,194	+0	open	—	04-05 23:27
atp shapova blockx 2026 04 06	32	$2.1K	2,200	2,200	+0	open	—	04-06 13:24
nhl sea col 2026 04 16 spread home 1pt5	19	$2.1K	4,190	0	+4,190	open	—	04-17 04:39
cbb arz mich 2026 04 04	2	$2.0K	1,000	3,000	-2,000	open	—	04-05 01:11
nba cha bos 2026 04 07 total 219pt5	7	$1.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	04-07 06:30
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	18	$1.8K	980	980	+0	open	—	07-04 13:14
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	16	$1.8K	1,250	1,250	+0	open	—	07-08 22:49
spy up or down on june 18 2026	15	$1.7K	1,175	1,175	+0	open	—	06-18 14:06
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	14	$1.7K	877	877	+0	open	—	06-27 01:43
nhl wsh cbj 2026 04 14 total 4pt5	2	$1.6K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	04-14 23:57
will cape verde reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134498	18	$1.6K	819	819	+0	open	—	07-04 00:08
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5	6	$1.5K	1,161	1,099	+62	open	—	05-24 02:30
nhl sj chi 2026 04 15	2	$1.5K	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	04-16 01:31
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	23	$1.4K	1,100	1,100	+0	Colorado Rockies	+$11	05-13 15:14
spx opens up or down on february 23 2026	21	$1.4K	800	800	+0	open	—	02-23 14:06
wti up or down on june 18 2026	29	$1.4K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	06-18 15:36
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	16	$1.3K	1,604	993	+611	open	—	05-22 14:23
cbb vand nebr 2026 03 21	3	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-22 02:15
cbb nebr iowa 2026 03 26	7	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-27 00:44
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros	2	$1.3K	1,100	1,100	+0	Seattle Mariners	+$11	05-12 14:12
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)	5	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-24 07:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 04:20:04	will two spacex starships dock together by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	60	62¢	$37	0xa2f26d…
07-21 19:16:25	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	118	92¢	$109	0xc8466d…
07-21 19:15:15	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	92	92¢	$85	0x1e090d…
07-21 05:52:16	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	BUY	157	99¢	$155	0x4ead11…
07-20 10:26:06	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	110	42¢	$46	0xc6b756…
07-20 00:30:43	will two spacex starships dock together by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	250	52¢	$130	0x96d66f…
07-19 23:19:31	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	250	68¢	$170	0xca32ee…
07-19 23:03:33	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	250	67¢	$168	0x942d13…
07-17 16:02:57	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	210	92¢	$193	0x3fe08d…
07-17 09:51:51	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	BUY	53	99¢	$53	0xb65ff5…
07-17 00:44:28	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	210	97¢	$204	0xea4e9b…
07-16 10:06:41	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	70	42¢	$29	0x496c97…
07-15 22:56:02	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	210	91¢	$192	0x2d8058…
07-15 22:51:25	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	200	96¢	$193	0xbe77b7…
07-15 22:13:49	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	210	90¢	$190	0x2b8b7a…
07-15 15:32:16	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	74	34¢	$25	0xa78b9b…
07-15 15:31:22	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	100	29¢	$29	0x42ae5d…
07-15 12:36:41	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	250	48¢	$120	0x6a7471…
07-15 08:19:05	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	SELL	44	99¢	$44	0xad7771…
07-15 07:51:02	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	SELL	66	98¢	$65	0xc9cf76…
07-15 07:50:19	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	SELL	110	98¢	$108	0x0850a1…
07-14 15:14:11	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	BUY	110	98¢	$107	0x94def6…
07-14 08:16:07	us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	No	SELL	68	88¢	$60	0x0002c6…
07-14 07:55:07	us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	No	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0x3a31b5…
07-14 07:31:14	us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	No	BUY	68	87¢	$59	0x46ee47…
07-14 03:16:26	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	SELL	110	97¢	$107	0x884557…
07-13 22:21:26	Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	55	98¢	$54	0x8239ec…
07-13 19:46:47	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	BUY	9	95¢	$9	0x063aa7…
07-13 12:39:55	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	SELL	101	73¢	$74	0x33fc12…
07-13 07:19:26	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x67f1eb…
07-13 04:08:08	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x254cca…
07-13 02:29:47	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x2da26d…
07-13 01:05:22	will xauusd reach 4500 in july 2026	No	BUY	110	96¢	$106	0x170200…
07-13 00:44:58	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	6	28¢	$2	0xc579b1…
07-13 00:18:34	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	49	28¢	$14	0xc650b2…
07-12 23:57:08	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x5d44ce…
07-12 23:34:25	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	60	27¢	$16	0x589b89…
07-12 23:30:58	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	32	34¢	$11	0xe21c14…
07-12 23:30:58	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	92	34¢	$31	0x0412f8…
07-12 23:30:43	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	51	34¢	$17	0xf1f1fa…
07-12 23:29:50	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	BUY	250	83¢	$208	0x68d33c…
07-12 10:31:16	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	250	33¢	$82	0xa30b8f…
07-12 02:52:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	250	43¢	$108	0xea92d8…
07-12 02:52:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	56¢	$140	0xea92d8…
07-11 23:10:16	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	BUY	223	5¢	$11	0xc0126a…
07-11 23:10:16	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	BUY	27	5¢	$1	0xa04aaa…
07-11 23:02:55	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0xadc328…
07-11 23:02:52	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	BUY	51	72¢	$37	0xc5b1ca…
07-11 22:16:52	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0xeb42b3…
07-11 22:16:52	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	SELL	90	7¢	$7	0xa8932b…
07-11 21:48:59	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0xe8fcfc…
07-11 21:48:59	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	BUY	90	6¢	$6	0xbfff31…
07-09 10:10:17	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	55¢	$138	0x18f36d…
07-08 22:49:41	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	100	86¢	$86	0x2f3e2e…
07-08 22:46:40	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	99	86¢	$85	0xc90f01…
07-08 22:43:11	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	23	86¢	$19	0xd41dda…
07-08 22:41:56	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0xfff15e…
07-08 22:41:37	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x9617c2…
07-08 22:41:29	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	18	86¢	$15	0x0aaa17…
07-08 21:51:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	250	15¢	$38	0x177dc5…
07-08 21:48:29	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	250	14¢	$35	0x495d9a…
07-08 21:43:34	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	250	81¢	$202	0x346818…
07-08 18:54:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	210	96¢	$202	0x3b2767…
07-08 14:36:32	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	250	88¢	$220	0x5de37d…
07-08 14:35:59	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	250	87¢	$218	0xc5b6bf…
07-08 03:49:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	210	95¢	$200	0x6f81c4…
07-07 01:40:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	250	61¢	$152	0xf9d0fb…
07-07 00:53:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	210	98¢	$207	0xd443ac…
07-06 23:30:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	432	100¢	$432	0x6da744…
07-06 23:21:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	250	60¢	$150	0xa9f42a…
07-06 12:55:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	210	86¢	$181	0x863ec3…
07-06 03:48:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	210	85¢	$178	0x5bf462…
07-06 01:21:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	210	84¢	$176	0xe8b1d1…
07-05 23:05:20	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x2566ce…
07-05 22:12:35	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xa7abb3…
07-05 16:41:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	210	84¢	$176	0x6ed169…
07-05 08:56:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	210	96¢	$202	0x46a5a1…
07-05 02:18:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	131	76¢	$100	0x265283…
07-05 02:18:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	119	76¢	$90	0xe80707…
07-05 02:17:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	250	75¢	$188	0x0da0dc…
07-04 21:41:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	210	83¢	$174	0x9541f0…
07-04 13:14:14	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	70	94¢	$66	0x258012…
07-04 10:00:40	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	250	71¢	$177	0x250efa…
07-04 06:50:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	210	76¢	$160	0x9e41e0…
07-04 00:59:35	will colombia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134508	Yes	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0x1d1ff5…
07-04 00:50:31	will colombia reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134508	Yes	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xd84d09…
07-04 00:08:25	will cape verde reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134498	No	SELL	69	97¢	$67	0x6d4a7c…
07-04 00:08:25	will cape verde reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134498	No	SELL	36	97¢	$35	0x444dfb…
07-03 23:57:11	Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x6f2cb7…
07-03 23:57:07	Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x9de0c1…
07-03 23:46:38	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	250	35¢	$88	0x9daae2…
07-03 23:40:14	will cape verde reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134498	No	BUY	19	94¢	$17	0x1bf5e1…
07-03 23:40:10	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	250	36¢	$90	0xff78d1…
07-03 23:40:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x4938a4…
07-03 23:23:16	will cape verde reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134498	No	BUY	86	94¢	$81	0x2a3d71…
07-03 20:06:04	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	18	94¢	$17	0xa3803d…
07-03 17:53:31	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	44	94¢	$41	0x6f5852…
07-03 17:28:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	210	76¢	$160	0xc5cd43…
07-03 13:33:26	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	SELL	126	94¢	$119	0x71599d…
07-03 05:53:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	210	74¢	$155	0x1c0569…