Wonderful-Fault — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$480

Unrealized P&L

-$426

Hit rate

92.6%

Resolved

137

Trades

575

lifetime

Volume

$132.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$230

Open exposure

$2.27K

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-07

last 11-09 11:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 72 days

Categories

Other

83% 94% -$315

Sports

7% 100% +$1,033

Crypto

6% 100% +$135

Politics

5% 0% -$1,333

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 43 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No		-3,348	-$2,052	68¢	$-2272	-$219	04-29 15:39
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+0	$207	3¢	$0	-$207	06-05 09:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$5.1K	18,419	16,641	+1,778	No	+$366	07-13 10:15
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	65	$3.3K	2,192	2,192	+0	open	—	06-09 11:09
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on July 25?	23	$3.3K	1,643	1,643	+0	No	+$3	07-25 07:57
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	4	$3.1K	1,532	1,532	+0	No	+$2	10-29 14:56
Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch?	3	$2.9K	1,482	1,482	+0	Yes	+$7	02-27 10:17
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$2.7K	3,743	3,743	+0	No	+$213	07-13 10:09
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	3	$2.3K	1,171	1,171	+0	No	+$4	11-01 09:30
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	11	$2.2K	1,147	1,147	+0	Yes	+$80	05-26 09:46
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C or higher on September 10?	4	$2.1K	1,070	1,070	+0	No	+$0	09-09 19:25
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	21	$2.1K	2,442	2,442	+0	open	—	06-05 09:16
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	5	$2.1K	0	3,348	-3,348	open	—	04-29 15:39
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on August 12?	5	$1.9K	1,928	0	+1,928	No	+$2	08-12 04:42
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	8	$1.9K	1,719	200	+1,519	No	+$7	11-05 07:00
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 38°C or higher on August 6?	2	$1.9K	1,914	0	+1,914	No	+$4	08-06 03:26
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 29?	3	$1.9K	1,902	0	+1,902	No	+$3	07-29 06:30
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on July 23?	3	$1.9K	1,882	0	+1,882	No	+$2	07-23 07:51
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 21?	1	$1.9K	1,878	0	+1,878	No	+$2	07-20 23:32
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	4	$1.8K	1,231	618	+614	No	+$3	11-04 06:26
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 3?	1	$1.8K	1,831	0	+1,831	No	+$2	08-03 10:08
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on July 16?	18	$1.8K	1,867	0	+1,867	No	+$79	07-16 03:09
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?	7	$1.7K	869	869	+0	Yes	+$44	04-01 08:48
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on July 24?	3	$1.7K	1,667	0	+1,667	No	+$2	07-24 05:39
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on August 21?	1	$1.6K	1,603	0	+1,603	No	+$2	08-21 06:42
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 20?	1	$1.6K	1,566	0	+1,566	Yes	+$2	08-20 12:04
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	1	$1.5K	1,548	0	+1,548	No	+$2	11-09 11:34
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 18?	15	$1.5K	947	947	+0	No	-$331	08-18 05:46
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	1	$1.5K	1,546	0	+1,546	No	+$3	11-08 10:58
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on September 5?	1	$1.5K	1,533	0	+1,533	No	+$2	09-04 06:06
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	1	$1.5K	1,528	0	+1,528	No	+$3	10-26 06:41
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	1	$1.5K	1,525	0	+1,525	No	+$2	10-22 07:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-09 11:34:36	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1,548	100¢	$1,546	0xf49101…
11-08 10:58:45	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1,546	100¢	$1,543	0x02c502…
11-07 06:40:21	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	635	100¢	$634	0xf25a52…
11-06 07:56:10	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	908	100¢	$904	0xa8fa1e…
11-06 07:55:21	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x82afbf…
11-06 07:54:54	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	93	100¢	$92	0xc6583f…
11-06 07:54:49	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x8fb055…
11-06 07:54:43	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0x2228cb…
11-06 07:53:58	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	514	100¢	$511	0x716a08…
11-06 07:53:54	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x2cba7f…
11-05 07:00:21	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x9f253e…
11-05 06:59:28	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	203	100¢	$202	0x550f00…
11-05 06:59:24	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	806	100¢	$803	0x867548…
11-05 06:59:18	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x00e2c0…
11-04 15:07:07	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x3f258d…
11-04 15:02:52	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x197d2f…
11-04 15:00:46	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x95ed1d…
11-04 06:26:30	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x8a0cac…
11-04 06:26:13	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	569	100¢	$567	0x6072d4…
11-04 06:24:51	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	240	100¢	$239	0x7dbdd3…
11-03 17:19:21	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	618	100¢	$616	0x5f74e6…
11-03 14:49:36	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	235	100¢	$235	0x5f6987…
11-03 08:50:46	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	478	100¢	$477	0x2ae449…
11-03 08:47:04	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	214	93¢	$199	0x532a6b…
11-03 00:26:49	Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	SELL	279	100¢	$278	0x3a2e6f…
11-02 03:44:18	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x30826e…
11-02 03:43:51	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	152	99¢	$150	0xac6551…
11-02 03:43:42	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xea7d1b…
11-02 03:18:39	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	161	100¢	$161	0xb4d740…
11-01 23:55:25	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0xb20a1b…
11-01 09:45:52	Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	233	100¢	$232	0x5bfa39…
11-01 09:45:33	Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	46	99¢	$46	0xe493b3…
11-01 09:38:07	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x0e7302…
11-01 09:34:18	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	235	100¢	$234	0x2e320b…
11-01 09:33:58	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	618	100¢	$614	0x60e815…
11-01 09:30:45	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	1,171	100¢	$1,170	0x1f1e04…
10-31 13:30:07	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	126	99¢	$125	0x51589a…
10-31 07:13:19	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	97¢	$30	0x17090e…
10-31 07:12:07	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	161	100¢	$160	0xaea875…
10-31 07:08:07	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	22	98¢	$21	0xd94b9e…
10-31 07:06:46	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	37	97¢	$36	0x2abc22…
10-31 07:02:54	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$21	0xdfe08c…
10-31 07:02:54	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	74	99¢	$73	0x00d1e1…
10-31 07:01:51	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xe729d5…
10-31 07:01:39	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$19	0x6c1eb7…
10-31 07:01:36	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0x9defd4…
10-31 07:00:06	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x9a3348…
10-31 06:59:51	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x3784ad…
10-31 06:58:28	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0xcae055…
10-31 06:58:06	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	27	98¢	$26	0xcb4b4d…
10-31 06:57:51	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0xca156e…
10-31 06:57:21	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$49	0xce0f53…
10-30 07:12:28	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	456	100¢	$454	0x001851…
10-30 07:12:00	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	715	99¢	$712	0x12bdb7…
10-30 07:11:51	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x7b0764…
10-30 07:07:48	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x1f9eb9…
10-30 06:59:21	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	99¢	$298	0x06ed75…
10-29 14:56:34	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	148	100¢	$148	0xfff0a9…
10-29 14:31:26	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,384	100¢	$1,383	0x44d64b…
10-28 07:39:13	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	712	100¢	$711	0x6eb1ee…
10-28 07:38:53	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	820	100¢	$818	0x73a375…
10-26 06:41:18	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1,528	100¢	$1,525	0xf8bf50…
10-22 07:35:51	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1,525	100¢	$1,523	0x741abf…
10-20 07:06:23	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1,523	100¢	$1,521	0x528080…
10-19 08:45:09	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	171	100¢	$170	0x7a5796…
10-19 08:44:51	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 19?	No	BUY	569	100¢	$568	0x77b73a…
10-19 08:44:35	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 19?	No	BUY	725	100¢	$724	0x334926…
10-15 07:52:04	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1,519	100¢	$1,517	0xf90e2e…
10-14 08:33:10	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	309	100¢	$309	0x5f30ca…
10-14 08:32:53	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1,005	100¢	$1,003	0xa112e3…
10-14 08:32:46	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xa5c0ee…
10-14 08:30:25	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	194	100¢	$193	0x83abdd…
10-12 07:33:14	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1,515	100¢	$1,513	0x961fc1…
10-11 07:22:25	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 11?	No	BUY	1,514	100¢	$1,512	0x109dfa…
10-09 08:15:37	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1,512	100¢	$1,510	0xbf19e4…
09-22 10:27:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on September 23?	No	BUY	666	100¢	$665	0x1664d3…
09-22 10:25:09	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 22?	Yes	BUY	845	100¢	$844	0x1cfde8…
09-21 06:45:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 21?	No	BUY	161	100¢	$160	0x713a72…
09-21 06:45:35	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 21?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x367b9f…
09-21 06:45:20	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 21?	No	BUY	167	99¢	$166	0x6bc68d…
09-21 06:45:15	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 21?	No	BUY	167	99¢	$166	0xcba3ba…
09-21 06:44:47	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 21?	No	BUY	167	99¢	$166	0x8ba35e…
09-21 06:44:41	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 21?	No	BUY	167	99¢	$166	0xa8e839…
09-21 06:44:09	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 21?	No	BUY	167	99¢	$166	0xc4c7a9…
09-21 06:44:03	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 21?	No	BUY	167	99¢	$166	0x6708b7…
09-21 06:43:48	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 21?	No	BUY	167	99¢	$166	0x16a55d…
09-21 06:43:42	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 21?	No	BUY	167	99¢	$166	0x3052e9…
09-17 07:46:25	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on September 18?	No	BUY	844	100¢	$843	0xbc862a…
09-17 07:45:52	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on September 18?	No	BUY	139	100¢	$139	0xda2e9b…
09-17 07:42:36	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 17?	No	BUY	432	100¢	$432	0x7e12d7…
09-17 07:42:31	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 17?	No	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0x177e81…
09-15 09:07:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	1,495	100¢	$1,493	0x119b72…
09-14 08:03:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 14?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x62622d…
09-14 08:02:24	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 14?	No	BUY	1,458	100¢	$1,456	0xddc38d…
09-12 04:41:27	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 12?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x44e519…
09-12 04:38:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 12?	No	SELL	180	73¢	$131	0xfefb09…
09-12 03:48:04	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on September 12?	No	BUY	137	100¢	$137	0xc70133…
09-12 03:46:25	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 12?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x37cbf0…
09-12 03:42:46	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 12?	No	BUY	381	100¢	$381	0x8fe6f1…
09-11 09:28:06	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on September 11?	No	BUY	499	100¢	$499	0x56b6d2…