Valuable-Twine — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$172

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.9%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

313 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$20

$28.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

$90

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 10-16 02:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Other

34% 41% -$448

Tech

25% 55% +$299

Politics

22% 65% +$721

Sports

19% 37% +$496

Crypto

0% 54% -$35

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	7	$2.3K	1,708	1,708	+0	Yes	+$453	07-03 03:08
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	4	$1.7K	1,263	1,263	+0	Yes	-$77	07-07 01:29
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$1.6K	3,416	3,416	+0	No	+$287	07-08 21:55
gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	24	$1.5K	1,602	1,602	+0	No	+$830	07-05 10:36
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	5	$1.5K	952	952	+0	Yes	+$384	05-30 19:27
will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	4	$1.1K	1,480	210	+1,270	Yes	-$816	07-12 09:57
gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	12	$1.0K	2,856	1,170	+1,685	Yes	-$422	07-07 21:56
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	3	$1.0K	1,334	680	+654	No	-$197	06-23 08:44
Will the White River at Indianapolis peak over 20 ft during the August 2026 floods?	7	$816	452	452	+0	Yes	+$46	08-23 23:52
gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	4	$797	702	702	+0	No	+$401	07-05 10:32
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	2	$766	458	458	+0	No	+$134	07-01 02:17
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30?	3	$759	1,159	0	+1,159	Yes	+$400	09-22 08:18
GitHub.com critical incident by August 31, 2026?	7	$719	1,126	0	+1,126	Yes	+$407	08-24 23:34
iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	2	$653	484	484	+0	No	-$67	07-17 08:31
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 5, 2026?	5	$648	1,801	0	+1,801	No	-$648	09-06 08:48
gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	5	$630	1,690	787	+903	Yes	-$288	07-08 02:18
iran successfully targets shipping on august 31 2026 20260729163314551	5	$617	371	371	+0	Yes	+$103	09-04 10:17
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	2	$599	1,114	1,114	+0	Yes	-$67	06-28 04:25
Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	3	$520	331	331	+0	No	+$100	08-07 14:56
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	6	$497	450	450	+0	No	+$41	07-31 22:12
iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	6	$472	517	120	+397	No	+$109	07-25 05:08
will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	6	$458	357	357	+0	Yes	-$15	08-21 00:41
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	2	$456	1,189	1,189	+0	No	-$144	07-03 20:46
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	3	$404	310	310	+0	open	—	08-01 08:41
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	1	$384	983	0	+983	No	-$384	06-23 09:49
fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 spread home 2pt5	2	$348	412	301	+111	Spain	-$72	06-21 07:34
russia strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 21 2026	2	$260	316	0	+316	Yes	+$56	08-22 04:49
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	1	$247	709	0	+709	No	-$247	06-28 04:25
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 total 4pt5	1	$240	418	0	+418	Over	-$240	07-06 01:45
will studio ghibli announce a new project at sdcc 2026 20260713165131278	1	$220	313	0	+313	No	+$93	07-26 03:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 02:13:01	Seahawks vs. Broncos	Seahawks	BUY	95	21¢	$20	0xb30316…
09-22 08:18:51	OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30?	Yes	BUY	297	71¢	$210	0x0ae94d…
09-20 13:11:45	OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30?	Yes	BUY	231	78¢	$180	0xf0634b…
09-20 13:11:10	OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?	Yes	BUY	217	83¢	$180	0xa81969…
09-19 00:11:55	OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30?	Yes	BUY	631	58¢	$369	0x4ed1d8…
09-06 08:48:07	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	366	8¢	$30	0x091f91…
09-06 08:47:31	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	252	6¢	$15	0x1a9096…
09-06 08:44:54	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	263	6¢	$15	0xfaaa1d…
09-05 11:34:33	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	584	55¢	$318	0xf95c37…
09-05 02:21:39	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	336	80¢	$270	0x556f24…
09-05 00:28:19	israel military action against lebanon on september 3 20260903	Yes	BUY	245	74¢	$180	0xbbf9e7…
09-04 21:58:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	152	7¢	$10	0xaf5d62…
09-04 10:31:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-04 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x720946…
09-04 10:31:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-04 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xf9558c…
09-04 10:31:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-04 10:30 UTC	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xa7c9e8…
09-04 10:17:07	iran successfully targets shipping on august 31 2026 20260729163314551	Yes	SELL	185	97¢	$180	0xb0f0f0…
09-04 10:16:13	Iran successfully targets shipping on August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	185	97¢	$180	0x737bf2…
09-03 04:00:13	Iran successfully targets shipping on August 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	67¢	$63	0x347316…
09-03 04:00:07	Iran successfully targets shipping on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0x19d8b2…
08-31 22:38:45	Iran successfully targets shipping on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	11¢	$5	0x55bf8e…
08-31 11:40:26	Iran successfully targets shipping on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	225	80¢	$180	0x13809c…
08-31 05:37:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:35 UTC	Up	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0x04bc31…
08-31 05:35:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:35 UTC	Up	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x9c2291…
08-31 05:34:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:30 UTC	Up	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x566213…
08-31 05:32:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:30 UTC	Up	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x648e0e…
08-31 05:29:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:25 UTC	Up	BUY	107	3¢	$3	0x4052b6…
08-31 05:28:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:25 UTC	Up	BUY	36	8¢	$3	0x4b803c…
08-31 05:26:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:25 UTC	Up	BUY	4	71¢	$3	0x1840ed…
08-31 05:24:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:20 UTC	Up	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x7e3088…
08-31 05:21:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xde55a1…
08-31 05:21:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:20 UTC	Up	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x7a38d7…
08-31 05:18:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:15 UTC	Up	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0xac04d8…
08-31 05:16:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	9	68¢	$6	0xc3e455…
08-31 05:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x0e7099…
08-31 05:12:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:10 UTC	Up	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x7ada9e…
08-31 05:08:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:05 UTC	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xa2490d…
08-31 05:08:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0x277e30…
08-31 05:04:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 05:00 UTC	Up	BUY	652	0¢	$3	0xd97387…
08-31 04:58:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 04:55 UTC	Up	SELL	4	93¢	$4	0xf50cdb…
08-31 04:56:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 04:55 UTC	Up	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xa392d0…
08-30 23:44:37	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August?	No	SELL	40	74¢	$30	0xfec0cf…
08-30 23:44:37	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August?	No	SELL	39	74¢	$29	0xf53f08…
08-30 23:18:21	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x55fba4…
08-30 23:15:37	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August?	No	SELL	6	74¢	$4	0xffa9c5…
08-30 06:47:37	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August?	No	BUY	175	38¢	$66	0xd4a652…
08-27 21:39:27	Iran successfully targets shipping on August 27, 2026?	No	BUY	294	71¢	$210	0x5a772d…
08-27 10:58:57	will ukraine target moscow by august 31 2026 v2	Yes	BUY	180	67¢	$120	0x4099f9…
08-27 09:50:55	Iran successfully targets shipping on August 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	179	84¢	$150	0xa31314…
08-26 22:55:22	Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	41¢	$91	0x592f55…
08-24 23:34:15	GitHub.com critical incident by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	148	55¢	$82	0x8abbb1…
08-24 22:33:57	russia strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 28 2026	Yes	SELL	12	94¢	$12	0xbfdac2…
08-24 21:56:16	russia strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 28 2026	Yes	SELL	75	96¢	$72	0x715aba…
08-24 07:56:19	GitHub.com critical incident by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	194	60¢	$116	0x63da12…
08-24 00:24:16	GitHub.com critical incident by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	68¢	$60	0xd674ba…
08-23 23:52:37	Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?	Yes	SELL	49	96¢	$48	0x057bda…
08-23 23:52:07	Will the White River at Indianapolis peak over 20 ft during the August 2026 floods?	Yes	SELL	34	97¢	$33	0x955279…
08-23 23:19:19	Will the White River at Indianapolis peak over 20 ft during the August 2026 floods?	Yes	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x03c100…
08-23 23:18:28	Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?	Yes	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xd91fa5…
08-23 23:17:45	Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?	Yes	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xd32f93…
08-23 22:53:30	GitHub.com critical incident by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	328	71¢	$233	0x8c90a6…
08-23 11:16:31	Will the White River at Indianapolis peak over 20 ft during the August 2026 floods?	Yes	SELL	98	97¢	$95	0x77da3c…
08-23 05:05:49	github com critical incident by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	75	72¢	$54	0xa9ab9e…
08-22 23:35:31	github com critical incident by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	75	72¢	$54	0x03ce66…
08-22 23:30:10	Will the White River at Indianapolis peak over 20 ft during the August 2026 floods?	Yes	SELL	102	92¢	$94	0x5d3c41…
08-22 23:30:09	Will the White River at Indianapolis peak over 20 ft during the August 2026 floods?	Yes	SELL	33	92¢	$30	0x15d2e1…
08-22 23:24:01	Will the White River at Indianapolis peak over 20 ft during the August 2026 floods?	Yes	SELL	135	96¢	$130	0x667679…
08-22 04:49:55	russia strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x1d038d…
08-22 03:23:22	github com critical incident by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	218	55¢	$120	0x5c1fc7…
08-21 04:47:34	russia strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 28 2026	Yes	BUY	111	65¢	$72	0x385492…
08-21 04:46:33	russia strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	217	92¢	$200	0x66328c…
08-21 00:41:21	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	SELL	132	100¢	$132	0xc2dc58…
08-20 22:27:33	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	BUY	32	73¢	$23	0xfa7922…
08-20 22:26:12	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	SELL	100	71¢	$71	0xd14212…
08-18 03:12:58	will phoenix be under an extreme heat warning for 10 days in august 2026 20260730191127649	Yes	BUY	82	71¢	$58	0xa31d6c…
08-18 02:54:12	will phoenix be under an extreme heat warning for 10 days in august 2026 20260730191127649	Yes	BUY	82	72¢	$59	0x55e846…
08-17 21:46:24	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	SELL	125	14¢	$18	0x899e9f…
08-17 10:37:37	Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	Yes	SELL	31	96¢	$29	0xd1bbe3…
08-17 09:51:33	Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	Yes	SELL	13	96¢	$12	0x3fffd3…
08-17 04:48:58	Will the White River at Indianapolis peak over 20 ft during the August 2026 floods?	Yes	BUY	452	85¢	$385	0x453452…
08-16 21:58:43	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt2t by august 31 20260730182630759	Yes	BUY	88	75¢	$66	0xc86d07…
08-15 07:51:36	will revoluts valuation hit high 115b by august 31 20260731174621601	Yes	BUY	93	74¢	$69	0xd4c36b…
08-15 06:20:42	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	BUY	267	67¢	$180	0xd34b75…
08-15 04:30:45	iran successfully targets shipping on august 14 2026 20260729163314534	Yes	BUY	85	78¢	$66	0xd61296…
08-15 03:20:06	will there be at least 2750 measles cases in the uptspt by august 31 2026 20260811160340034	Yes	BUY	94	71¢	$66	0x3319db…
08-15 02:59:18	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	BUY	59	56¢	$33	0xbeab36…
08-12 08:50:33	Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	Yes	BUY	44	62¢	$27	0xfe456c…
08-12 07:31:34	will the senate go into recess by august 8 20260728195131706	Yes	SELL	31	97¢	$30	0x50b7f3…
08-10 00:14:40	Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?	Yes	BUY	96	72¢	$69	0x9c79b4…
08-07 14:56:42	Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	83	90¢	$74	0x87a0c7…
08-07 05:02:34	Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	248	95¢	$236	0x2fa9dd…
08-05 21:31:50	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	SELL	104	66¢	$69	0x5de90f…
08-05 10:51:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	Yes	BUY	104	69¢	$72	0xc5a768…
08-02 07:08:54	will the senate go into recess by august 8 20260728195131706	Yes	BUY	122	66¢	$81	0xc0343f…
08-01 08:41:03	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	110	63¢	$69	0xeeb449…
07-31 23:42:11	Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	331	63¢	$210	0x1f1524…
07-31 22:49:11	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	200	67¢	$134	0xffe938…
07-31 22:12:26	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	219	99¢	$218	0xbf4d36…
07-31 22:11:54	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x4c32f4…
07-30 22:00:00	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	SELL	225	20¢	$45	0x60887e…
07-29 22:57:51	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	69	17¢	$12	0x5f46c0…