Closed-Tradition — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$140

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

28.2%

Resolved

232

Trades

768

lifetime

Volume

$25.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$33

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-18

last 10-28 13:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 100 days

Categories

Other

50% 23% -$80

Politics

26% 21% -$44

Tech

16% 29% $0

Sports

5% 11% +$10

Crypto

2% 67% -$20

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?	Yes		+60	$6	1¢	$1	-$5	04-30 14:34
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No		+0	$0	100¢	$0	+$0	05-20 02:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	7	$2.4K	1,260	1,260	+0	Yes	-$3	04-29 18:42
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	5	$2.0K	1,040	1,040	+0	No	-$1	04-20 09:54
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	8	$1.5K	800	800	+0	open	—	05-19 14:02
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	9	$1.2K	610	610	+0	Yes	$0	04-20 07:39
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$1.0K	520	520	+0	No	+$0	04-20 05:21
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	5	$1.0K	520	520	+0	Yes	-$2	04-10 07:39
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$992	500	500	+0	No	-$1	04-29 16:59
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	4	$792	400	400	+0	Yes	-$2	04-07 08:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	26	$782	400	400	+0	No	+$0	05-09 08:33
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	10	$631	800	800	+0	open	—	10-28 11:55
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	12	$583	300	300	+0	No	+$1	04-07 03:51
italy nordio reform referendum passes	10	$572	491	774	-284	No	-$164	03-22 20:06
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$508	1,389	1,389	+0	No	+$8	07-12 00:14
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	1	$403	672	0	+672	Yes	+$269	06-28 07:25
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	4	$397	400	400	+0	open	—	10-28 13:03
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$391	200	200	+0	Yes	+$0	04-07 02:54
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	2	$388	200	200	+0	No	-$1	05-09 10:19
england mexico game rescheduled to different time 20260703205906835	9	$348	293	293	+0	Yes	-$1	07-05 10:34
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$346	200	200	+0	Yes	+$2	04-07 04:08
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	1	$344	670	0	+670	No	-$344	06-25 15:25
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	1	$330	500	0	+500	Yes	+$170	06-23 13:12
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	1	$321	595	0	+595	Yes	+$274	07-04 08:22
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	1	$288	600	0	+600	Yes	+$312	07-01 11:24
gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	8	$260	180	180	+0	No	-$1	07-05 10:35
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	1	$258	550	0	+550	Yes	+$292	06-18 20:21
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$238	120	120	+0	No	+$0	05-25 13:22
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	6	$234	240	240	+0	Yes	-$1	10-27 12:10
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	12	$227	650	650	+0	open	—	06-03 13:57
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	4	$222	300	300	+0	Yes	-$4	05-31 19:10
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$214	108	108	+0	No	+$0	03-30 06:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 13:26:44	Will United Torah Judaism win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xa3882f…
10-28 13:08:44	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x29776a…
10-28 13:08:19	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x1d626f…
10-28 13:05:17	Next Israeli government a minority government?	No	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x1d2554…
10-28 13:03:37	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0xa01bf2…
10-28 13:03:11	Will voter turnout be 79% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0x1eea4c…
10-28 13:02:16	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$9	0xfeb053…
10-28 12:49:01	Will voter turnout be 79% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x37a357…
10-28 11:55:10	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	200	30¢	$60	0x1274d8…
10-28 11:54:40	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	32¢	$63	0x8ae59f…
10-28 11:47:23	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x3653b9…
10-28 11:46:10	Next Israeli government a minority government?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xe75b19…
10-28 11:43:23	Next Israeli government a minority government?	No	SELL	12	73¢	$9	0xabcecf…
10-28 11:42:55	Next Israeli government a minority government?	No	BUY	12	73¢	$9	0xe448ad…
10-28 11:36:56	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xb27c50…
10-28 11:35:02	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0xa6e10f…
10-28 11:34:28	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xfc8840…
10-28 11:24:47	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x29b38d…
10-28 11:24:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x2953e0…
10-28 11:23:04	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xc34150…
10-28 11:23:04	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x3dbf9a…
10-28 11:22:20	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	17	77¢	$13	0x11da8e…
10-28 11:21:35	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	17	77¢	$13	0xc8427d…
10-28 11:14:26	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x389d47…
10-28 11:13:53	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	200	70¢	$141	0xeb3959…
10-28 11:13:37	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0x67fa75…
10-28 11:12:59	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xf20ac4…
10-28 11:12:01	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	47	27¢	$13	0x8c7507…
10-28 11:11:07	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	153	27¢	$42	0x7d85c7…
10-28 11:04:17	Will voter turnout be 79% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x912de6…
10-28 11:03:53	Will voter turnout be 79% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x93d532…
10-28 10:58:20	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0xf0a334…
10-28 10:56:28	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	28¢	$55	0x695100…
10-28 10:55:17	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xea3282…
10-28 10:49:58	Will United Torah Judaism win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x59ad5d…
10-28 10:47:26	Will voter turnout be 79% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x26510e…
10-28 10:44:38	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	195	28¢	$55	0x09b72c…
10-28 10:43:40	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0x7e3bf8…
10-28 10:43:20	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	28¢	$57	0x6f622f…
10-27 13:03:59	Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $10B and $11B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x449f1a…
10-27 12:58:20	Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $10B and $11B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xb49575…
10-27 12:10:14	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	120	86¢	$103	0xc0a932…
10-27 12:04:36	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	90	88¢	$79	0x5a0ff1…
10-27 12:04:32	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0x682ad9…
10-27 12:00:59	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	18	11¢	$2	0xe3d59f…
10-27 12:00:59	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	102	11¢	$11	0x08e5df…
10-27 11:42:00	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	120	10¢	$12	0xb38521…
10-27 11:30:30	Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $10B and $11B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xdd0117…
10-26 13:01:41	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xdf9cc5…
10-26 13:01:18	Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	150	24¢	$36	0xabf352…
10-26 12:55:42	Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	150	26¢	$39	0xfc3903…
10-26 12:47:20	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	SELL	150	27¢	$40	0x733f8b…
10-26 12:44:12	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	BUY	150	27¢	$40	0xab0209…
10-26 12:33:14	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x381c7b…
10-26 11:56:59	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0xa33a41…
10-26 11:54:02	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0x13b05e…
10-26 11:32:41	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 80-82%?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xf208c5…
10-26 11:31:51	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 80-82%?	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xb14297…
10-24 13:20:48	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0xd15e70…
10-24 13:08:51	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 24?	No	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xe35f8f…
10-24 12:11:00	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x021b6e…
10-24 11:56:06	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x04eb54…
10-24 11:54:29	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 24?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x64cff8…
10-24 11:54:03	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x627535…
10-24 11:37:59	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x218ecc…
10-24 11:37:39	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	17¢	$0	0x9cdbd2…
10-24 11:35:29	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x5e13a0…
10-24 11:22:12	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	17¢	$0	0x9bd76b…
10-24 11:03:03	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 30% or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xc03ed3…
10-24 10:44:56	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0xb66100…
10-24 10:38:32	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x814209…
10-24 10:38:32	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0x4e830f…
10-24 10:37:57	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xf9f5c3…
10-24 10:36:35	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 30% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xadaf42…
10-24 10:35:47	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x1addec…
10-24 10:31:38	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x368643…
10-24 10:12:23	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x388c85…
10-24 10:12:00	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0xab03ea…
10-24 10:11:29	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x6065a7…
10-24 10:11:27	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	19	67¢	$12	0xfc2203…
10-23 11:45:30	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x41669b…
10-23 11:43:51	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x303b7b…
10-23 11:39:05	Vertiv (VRT) Q3 adjusted operating margin 24% to 26%?	No	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0xb5effc…
10-23 11:38:11	Vertiv (VRT) Q3 adjusted operating margin 24% to 26%?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xfc0634…
10-23 11:29:42	Rain during the United States Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x06239d…
10-21 12:35:27	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 21?	No	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0xe1fe57…
10-21 12:35:05	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 21?	No	SELL	21	2¢	$0	0x68549e…
10-21 12:19:14	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 21?	No	SELL	19	3¢	$1	0x8bcbac…
10-21 12:18:30	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 21?	No	SELL	19	2¢	$0	0x521160…
10-21 12:16:54	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 21?	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x99260d…
10-21 12:15:45	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 21?	No	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x310bf4…
10-21 12:07:20	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 21?	No	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x763165…
10-21 12:05:12	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 21?	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xf0d5c5…
10-21 12:04:41	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x3a8db8…
10-21 11:31:36	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 21?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x3c7a1b…
10-21 11:31:09	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 21?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x2e6949…
10-21 11:29:50	Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x6de2ef…
10-21 11:28:38	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	10¢	$2	0x80f9e4…
10-21 11:28:23	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0xfbc180…
10-21 11:28:21	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	17	10¢	$2	0xa3f547…