Fitting-Ambiguity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.37K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 07-03 15:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

66% 100% +$0

Other

32% 100% +$0

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?	3	$84	42	42	+0	open	—	04-20 22:04
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8?	2	$54	54	0	+54	Yes	+$0	05-07 22:06
will solana reach 200 in february 2026	2	$46	46	0	+46	open	—	02-18 02:29
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	2	$36	18	18	+0	open	—	04-20 22:05
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20?	2	$31	32	0	+32	open	—	05-19 16:50
will solana dip to 60 in june 2026	1	$29	29	0	+29	open	—	06-30 10:08
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $1.50 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	04-27 12:54
will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	01-12 22:55
bitcoin above 72k on april 22	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	04-22 01:46
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 25?	1	$26	26	0	+26	open	—	04-24 23:23
will ethereum dip to 1500 june 29 july 5 2026	1	$25	25	0	+25	open	—	07-03 15:30
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 4-10?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	05-09 13:12
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 420 439	1	$25	25	0	+25	open	—	03-08 18:12
bitcoin above 82k on april 22	1	$24	24	0	+24	open	—	04-21 05:25
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	1	$23	23	0	+23	open	—	05-29 09:37
ethereum above 1500 on july 2 2026	1	$23	23	0	+23	open	—	07-02 07:42
bitcoin above 70k on april 24	1	$22	22	0	+22	open	—	04-22 18:57
si hit 40 low jan 2026 159 697 786	1	$22	22	0	+22	open	—	01-26 06:03
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12?	1	$22	22	0	+22	No	+$0	05-11 09:44
will ethereum dip to 2000 april 13 19	1	$22	22	0	+22	open	—	04-19 00:35
bitcoin above 86k on april 24	1	$22	22	0	+22	open	—	04-23 00:19
will tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	1	$21	21	0	+21	open	—	03-13 17:15
bitcoin above 66k on july 3 2026	1	$21	21	0	+21	open	—	07-02 13:11
ethereum above 2200 on april 4	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	04-04 03:53
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	01-24 03:09
will moonshot have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	02-10 01:41
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24?	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	05-22 06:05
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	06-01 20:42
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19?	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	05-18 12:48
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 22 183	1	$19	19	0	+19	open	—	06-22 00:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 15:30:59	will ethereum dip to 1500 june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x8a21b7…
07-02 18:20:49	bitcoin above 54k on july 4 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xba2780…
07-02 13:11:52	bitcoin above 66k on july 3 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xa499ed…
07-02 07:42:19	ethereum above 1500 on july 2 2026	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xa1dcd3…
06-30 10:08:28	will solana dip to 60 in june 2026	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xc828f6…
06-23 06:56:59	bitcoin above 58k on june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x52f76a…
06-23 00:02:49	bitcoin above 68k on june 23 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x800872…
06-22 00:21:52	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 22 183	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x3a1281…
06-07 04:29:13	bitcoin above 58k on june 7 2026 356 993	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$15	0x50ab8c…
06-02 18:10:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x974071…
06-01 20:42:48	Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x661946…
05-30 02:31:47	Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x3e27d2…
05-29 09:37:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x1a611e…
05-28 00:56:16	Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xb47d29…
05-27 04:54:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x1d68f1…
05-27 01:46:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x2a1d1c…
05-26 03:28:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27?	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x961ce9…
05-25 13:20:57	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xf46ea4…
05-25 04:37:17	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xbc45bf…
05-23 04:12:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xcd887e…
05-22 21:56:23	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x6c3067…
05-22 18:31:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x0fe182…
05-22 06:05:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x0466f5…
05-21 22:32:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 21?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd97eb0…
05-20 21:22:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x2ac882…
05-20 09:31:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x3c5627…
05-19 16:50:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$19	0x282321…
05-19 02:33:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x1c400a…
05-18 17:08:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x18acc3…
05-18 12:48:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x5d62f6…
05-14 16:51:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x5aeec4…
05-14 14:46:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x2485ef…
05-12 06:57:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xeefb69…
05-11 09:44:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x10ac00…
05-09 13:12:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 4-10?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x1eff8c…
05-07 22:06:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xe039ac…
05-06 17:17:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xdb9449…
04-29 00:06:26	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x97b28e…
04-28 21:32:10	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xbca3f0…
04-27 12:54:00	Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $1.50 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x1be04a…
04-27 03:38:14	Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xf13f16…
04-26 09:07:48	Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 17.5m and 19m?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x93f17d…
04-26 03:05:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xa50291…
04-25 12:24:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x3f6954…
04-24 23:23:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 25?	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x6f80ae…
04-24 11:16:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 26?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xecb070…
04-24 00:03:00	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 260 279	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x652e6e…
04-23 00:19:06	bitcoin above 86k on april 24	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x3285a7…
04-22 18:57:18	bitcoin above 70k on april 24	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xad335c…
04-22 01:46:56	bitcoin above 72k on april 22	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xfb2c2e…
04-21 22:11:46	bitcoin above 70k on april 22	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xd2afa2…
04-21 05:25:34	bitcoin above 82k on april 22	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xb7c5a9…
04-20 23:24:24	bitcoin above 70k on april 21	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x072b75…
04-20 22:05:52	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x272d11…
04-20 22:04:36	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?	No	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0x85ee91…
04-19 00:35:18	will ethereum dip to 2000 april 13 19	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x14ee1e…
04-15 19:22:40	elon musk of tweets april 16 april 18 190 214	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xa8c514…
04-15 05:34:58	bitcoin above 78k on april 15	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x6037b0…
04-13 11:06:17	ethereum above 1900 on april 14	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6b8fae…
04-12 00:15:19	will bitcoin dip to 64k april 6 12	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x0f1b82…
04-04 03:53:39	ethereum above 2200 on april 4	No	BUY	21	99¢	$20	0x51fa07…
04-01 07:58:33	elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 115 139	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xcb4f87…
03-15 10:58:45	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x92d6dc…
03-13 17:15:55	will tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xff7669…
03-08 18:12:45	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 420 439	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xe4dc6b…
03-04 11:06:03	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x0c82da…
03-02 01:01:35	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x3f5504…
02-18 02:29:07	will solana reach 200 in february 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x694a7c…
02-11 22:15:13	will solana reach 200 in february 2026	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xd36799…
02-10 01:41:43	will moonshot have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x82c77c…
02-04 15:15:10	will bitcoin reach 125k in february 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x12e187…
01-29 20:31:12	will solana reach 150 in january 2026	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x68705b…
01-26 06:03:58	si hit 40 low jan 2026 159 697 786	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xf49c67…
01-24 03:09:02	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x227ca2…
01-13 23:44:34	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x3a14e9…
01-12 22:55:13	will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xd893a5…