Immediate-Cousin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$818

Unrealized P&L

+$254

Hit rate

52.7%

Resolved

Trades

749

lifetime

Volume

$5.28K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$287

5 positions

First seen

2026-02-01

last 11-05 19:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 26 days

Categories

Other

59% 25% -$745

Politics

39% 46% -$34

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

1% 33% -$39

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 104 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	+620	$34	28¢	$171	+$137	10-01 22:14
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+516	$103	13¢	$65	-$38	09-22 22:33
AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?	Yes	+190	$40	24¢	$47	+$7	11-05 19:14
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+114	$10	4¢	$5	-$5	07-27 22:16
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+0	-$153	0¢	$0	+$153	09-15 15:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$895	625	625	+0	Yes	+$295	02-28 20:27
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	8	$422	1,530	910	+620	open	—	10-01 22:14
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	264	$367	64,529	64,529	+0	open	—	09-15 15:19
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	247	$317	28,098	28,098	+0	open	—	09-14 20:03
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	8	$246	218	218	+0	No	+$28	02-13 11:33
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	7	$201	310	50	+260	Yes	-$139	03-01 20:28
will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	8	$178	180	153	+27	Yes	+$24	03-03 21:08
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	14	$132	4,826	0	+4,826	Yes	-$132	02-02 09:23
will felicia win melodifestivalen 2026	8	$132	361	0	+361	Yes	-$132	03-07 20:38
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	4	$124	210	210	+0	No	+$0	05-16 22:15
Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	7	$117	391	391	+0	No	-$15	05-16 23:02
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	5	$103	516	0	+516	open	—	09-22 22:33
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$100	259	0	+259	Yes	-$100	02-25 09:01
Trump renames AI by September 30?	2	$97	70	70	+0	Yes	+$0	09-22 22:36
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 4 2026	14	$92	255	49	+205	No	-$45	03-04 07:08
will alexa win melodifestivalen 2026	9	$86	776	61	+716	No	-$68	02-24 19:37
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	1	$80	421	0	+421	No	-$80	03-01 16:38
will france strike iran by march 31	3	$76	50	50	+0	No	+$6	03-02 20:49
nothing ever happens khamenei	2	$71	49	49	+0	No	+$21	02-28 20:27
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	1	$70	100	0	+100	No	+$30	03-01 00:07
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	2	$69	180	0	+180	No	-$69	03-01 16:38
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$62	43	43	+0	No	+$22	05-16 23:15
will silver si hit low 65 by end of february 598 917 186 187 154 235 433 943	3	$62	198	0	+198	No	-$62	02-04 18:10
will greczula win melodifestivalen 2026	2	$60	37	37	+0	No	+$4	02-12 16:35
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?	2	$60	200	200	+0	Yes	+$12	09-01 21:33
will sanna nielsen win melodifestivalen 2026	3	$59	636	55	+581	No	-$41	02-28 20:28
masoud pezeshkian out by march 31	4	$56	179	0	+179	No	-$56	03-04 13:36
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 3 2026	6	$55	297	297	+0	No	-$25	03-03 21:27
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	3	$54	170	0	+170	Yes	-$54	11-03 06:06
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$50	83	0	+83	Yes	+$33	02-07 18:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 19:14:32	AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	190	21¢	$40	0xcded20…
11-03 06:06:42	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x5875ae…
11-01 15:21:00	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0xe9bbe1…
10-26 06:08:59	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0xa22683…
10-01 22:14:17	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	140	23¢	$32	0x853689…
09-30 14:07:18	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	90	23¢	$21	0x4c7228…
09-22 22:36:46	Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	SELL	70	69¢	$48	0x7ab7de…
09-22 22:33:14	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x13be42…
09-22 22:32:14	Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	BUY	70	69¢	$48	0x411d98…
09-15 15:19:01	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	610	0¢	$2	0x7d149b…
09-15 10:29:48	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	8,357	0¢	$25	0xa66073…
09-15 08:55:45	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	1,670	0¢	$5	0x8dcdc8…
09-15 06:40:46	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	7,433	0¢	$22	0x8b8ea2…
09-15 06:36:06	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	333	0¢	$1	0x14afd8…
09-14 20:03:54	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	2,733	1¢	$22	0x717ef6…
09-14 19:29:34	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	343	0¢	$1	0xd8a752…
09-14 19:21:58	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	10,130	0¢	$30	0x63f124…
09-14 08:56:37	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	929	0¢	$3	0xe9b92a…
09-14 08:02:34	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	27,435	0¢	$82	0x0c3138…
09-14 06:28:12	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	256	0¢	$1	0x13a193…
09-13 21:45:01	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x773aa6…
09-13 19:04:45	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	710	0¢	$2	0x8c1988…
09-13 18:32:04	Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	SELL	157	4¢	$6	0x809523…
09-13 18:13:36	Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x424257…
09-13 16:39:51	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	3,862	0¢	$12	0x8e6a5f…
09-12 18:54:21	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	SELL	350	33¢	$116	0xdf7d0c…
09-12 09:29:07	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	6,000	1¢	$60	0x89f9dd…
09-12 08:58:25	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	3,973	1¢	$40	0x1fc5d3…
09-11 12:07:33	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	5,727	0¢	$6	0xb472b2…
09-11 06:10:24	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	9,990	1¢	$80	0x6d1f07…
09-10 22:14:03	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xb5ada4…
09-10 22:14:01	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	16,544	0¢	$17	0xe7a76a…
09-09 03:42:46	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x43d522…
09-09 02:38:55	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xfaf2fd…
09-09 02:38:52	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x755b59…
09-09 02:38:46	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x86ea13…
09-09 02:38:40	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xe2f462…
09-09 01:34:34	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x9ecceb…
09-09 01:34:28	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x7c4afd…
09-08 23:46:06	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x4a6084…
09-08 23:14:18	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0xa8a464…
09-08 22:58:54	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x484a4e…
09-08 22:58:31	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x8bdff1…
09-08 09:04:18	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x0bb6a5…
09-08 08:04:42	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0xe211ed…
09-08 07:31:25	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	847	1¢	$8	0xca63ab…
09-07 13:56:55	Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0xbbb842…
09-07 10:48:43	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	2,718	1¢	$27	0xcb06a2…
09-06 16:12:55	Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x5439ce…
09-05 18:23:07	Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0xa22812…
09-02 05:11:00	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	300	14¢	$42	0x51b3c3…
09-02 05:10:09	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	BUY	400	14¢	$56	0x2b7e69…
09-01 21:33:24	Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?	Yes	SELL	200	18¢	$36	0xc06fc9…
08-31 21:55:07	Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	SELL	42	9¢	$4	0x21d165…
08-30 23:31:36	Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	BUY	42	5¢	$2	0x7e2f12…
08-30 14:29:03	Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?	Yes	BUY	200	12¢	$24	0x4809eb…
08-30 04:41:19	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xe35fba…
08-30 04:41:19	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x968ebf…
08-30 04:07:55	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	62	0¢	$0	0x64a4a9…
08-30 04:07:54	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	62	0¢	$0	0xd37f6c…
08-30 04:07:54	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	76	0¢	$0	0x8d8f0a…
08-30 04:07:54	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	151	0¢	$0	0x78fd86…
08-30 04:07:54	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	151	0¢	$0	0x5d63a0…
08-30 04:07:54	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	76	0¢	$0	0x3315b5…
08-30 01:26:00	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xfdd464…
08-29 23:22:48	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xca5960…
08-29 23:21:09	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x0d3b12…
08-29 21:09:07	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xd2ce94…
08-29 20:18:46	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x747abd…
08-29 20:18:46	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x249074…
08-29 19:20:36	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	96	0¢	$0	0x8f2847…
08-29 19:20:34	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	96	0¢	$0	0x88f41b…
08-29 19:20:33	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	37	0¢	$0	0x97ab3e…
08-29 19:20:33	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	37	0¢	$0	0x122796…
08-29 17:27:52	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xf739cf…
08-29 17:27:52	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x2e51da…
08-29 17:27:51	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x81c6a5…
08-29 17:27:51	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x4aaf53…
08-29 17:27:49	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	116	0¢	$0	0x39e2ef…
08-29 17:27:48	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	116	0¢	$0	0xa93e5f…
08-29 16:42:42	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xe27e4f…
08-29 15:20:49	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xf5f886…
08-29 15:20:49	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x48c43f…
08-29 14:47:01	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	46	0¢	$0	0xec6a6e…
08-29 14:47:01	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	54	0¢	$0	0x8f26c1…
08-29 14:47:01	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	54	0¢	$0	0x56ffe9…
08-29 14:47:00	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	46	0¢	$0	0x1b2eea…
08-29 14:03:31	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	5,544	0¢	$11	0x4533bf…
08-29 14:00:43	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0xff9509…
08-29 14:00:42	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x1580e1…
08-29 13:48:49	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	74	0¢	$0	0xc63634…
08-29 13:48:49	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	74	0¢	$0	0x1cd396…
08-29 13:48:46	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$0	0x1a8b9d…
08-29 13:48:46	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$0	0x193b53…
08-29 13:36:15	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x61d226…
08-29 13:33:31	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x16db35…
08-29 13:31:01	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x329759…
08-29 13:15:30	Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xddd2b7…
08-29 13:15:30	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xb46a26…
08-29 12:58:13	Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x2e5bf4…