Determined-Validity — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.4%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

46 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$50

$238 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 11-04 04:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Crypto

64% 100% +$3

Other

35% 56% -$9

Politics

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will solana reach 160 february 9 15	2	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	02-12 04:21
will solana reach 170 in january 2026	1	$15	15	+15	No	+$0	01-29 20:07
megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	2	$15	15	+15	No	+$0	02-21 00:45
will solana reach 120 february 2 8	1	$13	13	+13	No	+$0	02-08 02:45
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	1	$10	10	+10	No	+$0	01-30 00:56
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$10	10	+10	No	+$0	07-22 06:28
will ethereum reach 2800 february 2 8	1	$9	9	+9	No	+$0	02-08 03:16
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-04?	1	$8	10	+10	Yes	+$2	11-04 04:50
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-17?	2	$8	12	+12	Yes	+$3	10-17 10:47
will solana reach 150 february 9 15	1	$8	8	+8	No	+$0	02-12 10:25
will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	1	$8	8	+8	No	+$0	01-30 01:53
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$7	8	+8	No	+$1	02-26 23:44
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?	2	$7	12	+12	Yes	+$5	10-04 01:15
USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?	1	$7	7	+7	No	+$0	02-20 15:51
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-10-12?	1	$5	12	+12	No	-$5	10-12 04:20
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08?	1	$5	9	+9	Yes	+$4	09-08 00:03
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-16?	1	$5	13	+13	No	-$5	05-15 12:12
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	1	$5	5	+5	No	+$0	05-31 18:22
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	1	$5	5	+5	No	+$0	07-22 03:22
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-31?	1	$5	8	+8	No	-$5	10-31 06:07
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	1	$5	5	+5	No	+$0	05-31 23:06
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24?	1	$5	10	+10	No	-$5	05-23 19:56
will ethereum reach 2000 on july 21	1	$4	4	+4	No	+$0	07-22 02:07
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-22?	1	$4	6	+6	Yes	+$2	08-22 05:51
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24?	1	$4	8	+8	No	-$4	05-23 20:54
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-09-19?	1	$4	6	+6	No	-$4	09-19 06:04
Will Denmark win on 2026-10-04?	1	$4	8	+8	Yes	+$4	10-03 21:31
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	1	$4	4	+4	No	+$0	06-01 00:29
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07?	1	$3	5	+5	Yes	+$2	05-07 02:41
will ethereum dip to 2200 in january 2026 518	1	$3	3	+3	No	+$0	01-30 08:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 04:50:13	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x45670a…
10-31 06:07:18	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xce6853…
10-17 10:47:59	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x1b3a2f…
10-17 10:42:00	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0xecbeea…
10-12 04:20:54	Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-10-12?	Yes	BUY	12	45¢	$5	0x149618…
10-04 01:15:43	Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x332771…
10-03 21:59:49	Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x55f49a…
10-03 21:31:16	Will Denmark win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x01212a…
09-19 06:04:22	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-09-19?	Yes	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0xe78776…
09-08 00:03:24	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xda8b13…
08-22 05:51:37	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-22?	Yes	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xa9d27d…
07-27 22:02:51	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3df5ac…
07-27 18:49:52	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x687bec…
07-22 06:28:57	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0xec2dd1…
07-22 03:22:57	GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x10154e…
07-22 02:07:33	will ethereum reach 2000 on july 21	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xdf707b…
07-21 16:24:31	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x11928f…
06-01 00:29:46	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0xa43343…
05-31 23:06:12	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x901feb…
05-31 18:22:45	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x56ad64…
05-23 20:54:04	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24?	Yes	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x469d65…
05-23 19:56:53	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x2a4e0f…
05-15 16:07:47	Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16?	Yes	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x87ea33…
05-15 12:12:05	Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-16?	Yes	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x860e86…
05-07 02:41:51	Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07?	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xfd5c4b…
04-13 23:15:29	ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 fcb1	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0x582a32…
03-29 12:54:42	Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x48e78f…
03-28 00:16:35	will solana reach 110 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa305b8…
03-27 21:33:39	will solana reach 120 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x852f71…
03-17 15:36:07	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x6a497f…
03-17 14:59:37	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	No	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xb44490…
02-26 23:44:46	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	4	90¢	$3	0xe2176c…
02-26 14:33:12	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x3ddb4c…
02-21 00:45:20	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0xce9d37…
02-20 15:51:12	USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xb71ab7…
02-20 15:24:10	megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182	No	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x8903f1…
02-12 10:25:49	will solana reach 150 february 9 15	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7a2795…
02-12 04:21:55	will solana reach 160 february 9 15	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5ba10c…
02-12 03:19:51	will solana reach 160 february 9 15	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xbe4bd2…
02-08 03:16:13	will ethereum reach 2800 february 2 8	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xb42f26…
02-08 02:45:09	will solana reach 120 february 2 8	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xf17371…
01-30 08:40:20	will ethereum dip to 2200 in january 2026 518	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd32c71…
01-30 01:53:02	will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb71833…
01-30 00:56:02	will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb76f9e…
01-29 20:07:22	will solana reach 170 in january 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xee57a5…
01-04 05:25:33	sea fio cre 2026 01 04 cre	Yes	BUY	14	19¢	$3	0x3deefc…