Rural-Trait — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$43

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

80.1%

Resolved

1,964

Trades

6,191

lifetime

Volume

$24.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-26

last 10-25 08:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 217 days

Categories

Other

48% 68% -$121

Politics

37% 72% +$65

Sports

7% 61% -$32

Crypto

7% 63% +$61

Tech

1% 67% -$17

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 80 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes		+6	$5	2¢	$0	-$5	09-29 20:17
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No		-0	$0	93¢	$-0	+$0	05-16 20:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
lol gz mvk 2026 07 25 game1	20	$230	117	117	+0	MVK Esports	+$3	07-25 10:14
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	34	$192	151	151	+0	No	+$1	06-11 02:20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	25	$160	114	108	+5	No	-$1	05-24 08:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	39	$158	173	147	+27	Yes	-$11	06-16 07:58
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	49	$151	245	245	+0	Yes	+$7	04-21 11:45
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	37	$146	119	108	+11	No	+$0	04-27 05:54
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	29	$144	116	116	+0	No	+$1	05-26 06:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	29	$140	119	119	+0	No	+$1	06-28 02:02
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	28	$137	107	97	+10	Yes	+$5	04-12 19:44
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	37	$129	148	148	+0	Yes	+$5	04-21 14:47
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	24	$124	89	89	+0	No	+$7	05-08 20:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	32	$120	163	123	+40	No	+$0	07-14 04:45
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	77	$120	190	190	+0	No	-$1	03-27 16:24
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	20	$120	98	98	+0	No	+$5	04-27 15:28
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	27	$120	103	98	+6	No	+$1	05-13 04:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	44	$117	178	138	+40	No	+$2	05-30 03:26
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	25	$114	73	73	+0	Yes	+$1	07-29 18:11
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	29	$103	88	88	+0	No	+$5	06-20 01:02
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	23	$97	74	74	+0	No	+$0	05-26 02:55
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	25	$96	72	62	+10	No	+$1	03-31 07:29
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	18	$93	63	63	+0	open	—	10-08 11:29
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	27	$91	80	64	+16	Yes	+$5	04-16 16:08
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	24	$91	70	75	-5	No	+$3	04-12 18:21
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	25	$90	88	88	+0	No	$0	07-19 21:56
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	12	$88	46	46	+0	No	+$0	07-30 04:40
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	12	$85	47	47	+0	No	+$1	05-11 22:45
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	20	$82	91	66	+25	Yes	-$4	08-10 21:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	29	$81	110	99	+11	No	-$5	04-28 04:02
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	15	$78	57	57	+0	No	+$1	05-30 15:28
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	14	$74	49	49	+0	No	+$3	05-12 06:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 08:02:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0xa695ff…
10-25 08:01:51	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	6	75¢	$4	0x514542…
10-25 08:01:35	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	14	93¢	$13	0x884ff2…
10-25 08:01:20	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0x91daff…
10-15 23:35:36	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0x0d8c29…
10-14 12:59:53	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	6	48¢	$3	0x94839f…
10-14 03:30:41	Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x13f218…
10-14 02:25:14	Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0x409ccc…
10-13 21:26:13	Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xb9b468…
10-13 21:00:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0x92f5b4…
10-13 20:47:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x7964b3…
10-13 20:24:09	Arsenal FC vs. Lille OSC: Draw at halftime?	No	BUY	5,450	0¢	$5	0xf312be…
10-13 20:24:04	Arsenal FC leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	6,620	0¢	$7	0x882cb3…
10-13 19:18:22	Arsenal FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x26c42a…
10-13 19:03:45	Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xad02f3…
10-13 17:40:54	Racing Club de Lens vs. Sporting CP: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xee8b03…
10-13 17:24:57	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xe129d7…
10-13 16:59:03	Racing Club de Lens vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x3a8636…
10-13 15:48:51	Rovereto: Laura Mair vs Lucrezia Stefanini	Lucrezia Stefanini	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0xc3776f…
10-13 14:50:16	wta pohanko wan 2026 10 13	Xiyu Wang	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x3e5af3…
10-13 12:55:17	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x5789bd…
10-13 03:30:41	Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)	Red Bull Bragantino	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xe836dd…
10-13 01:51:53	Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)	Red Bull Bragantino	BUY	8	56¢	$5	0xcaaafe…
10-12 23:30:33	Grêmio Novorizontino leading at halftime?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x9ec576…
10-12 23:30:27	Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CA Newell's Old Boys end in a draw?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x383a45…
10-12 23:30:24	Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza win on 2026-10-12?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x255f8e…
10-12 23:21:00	Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CA Newell's Old Boys end in a draw?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x9f80c4…
10-12 23:20:56	Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza win on 2026-10-12?	Yes	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0xb647f7…
10-12 22:03:08	Grêmio Novorizontino leading at halftime?	Yes	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0x9d3872…
10-12 21:04:36	Spread: Coventry City FC (-1.5)	Coventry City FC	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xe21acb…
10-12 20:54:09	Spread: Sevilla FC (-2.5)	Sevilla FC	BUY	117	1¢	$1	0x5f6a18…
10-12 20:23:29	Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-10-12?	Yes	BUY	6	75¢	$5	0x985526…
10-12 20:12:45	Spread: Coventry City FC (-1.5)	Coventry City FC	BUY	7	51¢	$4	0xa0aaf2…
10-12 20:12:42	Coventry City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	6	81¢	$4	0xf3376d…
10-12 20:12:39	Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-10-12?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x2e1d90…
10-12 19:42:47	Coventry City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	15¢	$1	0x9e4715…
10-12 19:42:44	Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-10-12?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xb7b377…
10-12 19:42:41	Will Coventry City FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0xf10bb5…
10-12 19:15:09	Will Levante UD vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x31e65e…
10-12 16:21:42	Burgos CF vs. Granada CF: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x0b6b06…
10-12 16:19:29	Spread: Granada CF (-2.5)	Granada CF	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x76d9c3…
10-12 16:19:21	Burgos CF vs. Granada CF: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xd3e174…
10-12 16:12:35	Burgos CF vs. Granada CF: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xfc53b3…
10-12 13:31:39	Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-10-12?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xdb0206…
10-12 12:24:57	Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-10-12?	Yes	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0x32df8e…
10-12 08:40:49	Will the Republican Party win the NC-01 House seat?	No	SELL	6	70¢	$5	0xfeccd7…
10-12 02:28:39	Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?	No	BUY	7	80¢	$5	0x219941…
10-12 02:27:27	Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xb502dd…
10-12 01:27:53	Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0xd5464d…
10-12 01:26:00	EC Bahia vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5	Under	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x62a5a7…
10-11 23:30:44	CR Flamengo vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to Score	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xb04f76…
10-11 23:30:12	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x7aae29…
10-11 22:41:15	EC Bahia vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xe9bb81…
10-11 22:07:00	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x338125…
10-11 22:03:26	CR Flamengo vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xb4fe8b…
10-11 21:25:02	CA Mineiro vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5	Under	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x41a691…
10-11 20:42:12	Will Real Racing Club vs. Valencia CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x704043…
10-11 19:35:37	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0xd3e9b3…
10-11 18:59:30	CA Mineiro vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0x3c524c…
10-11 17:50:19	Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-11?	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x6edc92…
10-11 17:07:48	Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-10-11?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xb1d397…
10-11 16:42:16	Will Real Betis Balompié vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x813b64…
10-11 16:42:09	Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-10-11?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x44824c…
10-11 16:28:37	Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xc5b4c5…
10-11 15:53:21	Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xee2161…
10-11 15:49:40	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0x000240…
10-11 15:47:40	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	11	26¢	$3	0x5b13f4…
10-11 15:45:18	Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)	Real Sociedad de Fútbol	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x0e565e…
10-11 15:30:54	Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xf8a6af…
10-11 15:30:48	Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x0e3ff2…
10-11 15:30:15	Crystal Palace FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5	Over	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xefe6e2…
10-11 15:09:03	Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: O/U 1.5	Over	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x2f6b96…
10-11 14:55:58	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xfed7d9…
10-11 14:55:55	Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0xeee5c0…
10-11 14:47:48	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-10-11?	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x2cbc0f…
10-11 14:47:36	Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xc17aa3…
10-11 14:39:39	Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x5d106c…
10-11 14:28:10	Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)	Nottingham Forest FC	BUY	7	36¢	$3	0x880f69…
10-11 14:28:07	Crystal Palace FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5	Over	BUY	8	67¢	$5	0xd8fd12…
10-11 14:24:36	Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0xaa3fa1…
10-11 14:20:34	Crystal Palace FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	9	75¢	$7	0x0ae227…
10-11 13:42:45	Crystal Palace FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x8475bb…
10-11 13:42:42	Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-10-11?	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x700064…
10-11 13:42:39	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x4f5394…
10-11 13:41:16	Will Elche CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xb7b5f4…
10-11 13:29:58	Will Konyaspor vs. Rams Başakşehir FK end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x99914d…
10-11 13:05:51	Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$4	0xdaf8f8…
10-11 12:22:21	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xc3c045…
10-11 12:13:25	Will Konyaspor vs. Rams Başakşehir FK end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x968406…
10-11 02:41:56	Will Atlas FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0xa200ea…
10-11 01:46:45	Will Nashville SC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0xc77c00…
10-11 00:12:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	SELL	7	91¢	$6	0xa05d88…
10-10 21:29:51	Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)	Villarreal CF	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xe1a372…
10-10 21:25:01	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-10-10?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xebb5f9…
10-10 21:24:58	Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)	Villarreal CF	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xf00647…
10-10 21:24:58	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$5	0x21e18e…
10-10 20:37:01	Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)	Villarreal CF	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xb52087…
10-10 19:29:46	Will CS Marítimo vs. FC Porto end in a draw?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x03932e…
10-10 19:22:10	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0xa0b9dc…
10-10 19:18:57	Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)	Villarreal CF	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x7a0dc5…