Silent-Grouse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$311

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

48.9%

Resolved

416

Trades

491

lifetime

Volume

$33.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$69

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-15

last 09-02 15:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 94 days

Categories

Crypto

79% 44% -$151

Other

13% 51% -$200

Tech

5% 33% -$5

Sports

2% 50% +$22

Politics

1% 100% +$29

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157 255 857	Yes		+8	$5	40¢	$3	-$2	08-21 14:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$1.0K	516	516	+0	Yes	+$1	04-09 22:29
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	2	$611	337	337	+0	Yes	+$11	05-11 15:19
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$597	321	321	+0	Yes	-$3	03-31 11:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 22:45 UTC	1	$500	505	0	+505	Down	+$5	07-21 22:48
Will London have less than 20mm of precipitation in April?	4	$459	272	272	+0	Yes	-$21	04-22 23:15
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	2	$438	224	224	+0	Yes	-$2	03-26 22:27
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$387	256	256	+0	Yes	-$13	05-06 13:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 12:25 UTC	1	$330	337	0	+337	Up	+$7	03-31 12:29
highest temperature in warsaw on april 15 2026 15corhigher	3	$324	237	135	+102	Yes	+$6	04-14 01:20
will swim bts be the billboard 1 song for the week of april 4	2	$315	178	178	+0	Yes	-$5	03-27 12:18
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?	2	$307	234	234	+0	No	+$7	05-08 14:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 12:20 UTC	1	$300	312	0	+312	Down	+$12	03-31 12:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 19:45 UTC	1	$300	517	0	+517	Down	-$300	07-29 19:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	1	$300	765	0	+765	Down	-$300	09-02 15:10
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$264	474	474	+0	Yes	+$44	07-20 00:34
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$227	161	161	+0	Yes	+$27	06-07 22:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 17:00 UTC	1	$200	625	0	+625	Up	-$200	08-04 17:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 19:40 UTC	1	$200	464	0	+464	Down	-$200	07-29 19:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 17:05 UTC	1	$200	426	0	+426	Up	-$200	08-04 17:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 22:20 UTC	1	$200	709	0	+709	Down	+$509	07-21 22:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 19:30 UTC	1	$200	339	0	+339	Down	-$200	07-29 19:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 23:00 UTC	1	$200	202	0	+202	Up	+$2	03-26 23:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 17:15 UTC	1	$200	204	0	+204	Down	+$4	03-30 17:19
will swim bts be the 1 song on spotify this week 154	2	$198	102	102	+0	Yes	-$2	03-30 17:49
will the los angeles clippers make the nba playoffs	17	$196	200	200	+0	No	-$2	03-31 11:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	1	$193	715	0	+715	Up	-$193	09-02 15:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$168	169	169	+0	No	-$32	04-22 22:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 22:15 UTC	1	$160	309	0	+309	Down	-$160	07-21 22:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 17:25 UTC	1	$150	160	0	+160	Down	+$10	03-30 17:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-14 00:45 UTC	1	$140	287	0	+287	Down	+$147	04-14 00:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-02 15:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	715	27¢	$193	0xe49f1f…
09-02 15:10:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	765	39¢	$300	0x00e1a5…
09-02 08:18:37	Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x113fd6…
09-02 08:13:51	Solana Up or Down - September 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	95	84¢	$80	0x8d6224…
09-02 08:01:49	Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	181	61¢	$110	0xa0f373…
09-02 07:56:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	125	56¢	$70	0xe4641a…
09-02 07:46:55	Solana Up or Down - September 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	162	37¢	$60	0x9b9c3a…
09-02 07:36:54	Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	140	50¢	$70	0xf85c4e…
09-02 07:26:27	Solana Up or Down - September 2, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	103	78¢	$80	0x3a9166…
08-31 19:45:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	312	32¢	$100	0x6b3b80…
08-31 19:36:03	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 19:35 UTC	Up	BUY	188	53¢	$100	0x461aa5…
08-31 19:30:52	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	45	62¢	$28	0x6cd474…
08-31 19:21:24	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 19:20 UTC	Up	BUY	154	39¢	$60	0xdc4699…
08-31 18:05:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 18:05 UTC	Up	BUY	103	58¢	$60	0xe922d7…
08-31 17:57:25	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 17:55 UTC	Up	BUY	101	49¢	$50	0x142e45…
08-31 17:55:16	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 17:45 UTC	Up	SELL	81	100¢	$81	0x2757f0…
08-31 17:47:07	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	81	49¢	$40	0x4d7d54…
08-21 14:10:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157 255 857	Yes	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xa960ec…
08-04 17:05:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 17:05 UTC	Down	BUY	426	47¢	$200	0xb66cfe…
08-04 17:00:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	625	32¢	$200	0x35b6f8…
08-04 15:58:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 15:55 UTC	Up	BUY	170	59¢	$100	0xd04302…
08-04 15:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	101	79¢	$80	0xfc7786…
08-04 15:37:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 15:35 UTC	Down	BUY	177	62¢	$110	0xfb78ca…
08-04 15:06:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 15:05 UTC	Up	BUY	506	20¢	$100	0xc30fd9…
08-04 15:01:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 15:00 UTC	Down	BUY	142	35¢	$50	0xa03208…
08-03 17:15:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 17:15 UTC	Down	BUY	128	39¢	$50	0x14d8b2…
07-31 06:07:03	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0xf55aee…
07-30 06:34:18	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-30 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	84	24¢	$20	0x786fc6…
07-29 19:45:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	517	58¢	$300	0x1c45ec…
07-29 19:40:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 19:40 UTC	Up	BUY	464	43¢	$200	0xb10c0a…
07-29 19:30:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	339	59¢	$200	0xfa732f…
07-29 19:28:24	will ethereum reach 2000 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	55	21¢	$12	0x79c47a…
07-29 19:25:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 19:25 UTC	Up	BUY	260	50¢	$130	0xff1008…
07-29 19:17:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x81dfc8…
07-29 19:05:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	265	49¢	$130	0x7fe650…
07-29 19:02:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0xb90b1c…
07-29 18:13:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 18:10 UTC	Down	BUY	193	62¢	$120	0x7c0567…
07-29 18:05:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 18:05 UTC	Down	BUY	256	39¢	$100	0x311e11…
07-29 18:04:12	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	88¢	$55	0x627190…
07-29 18:00:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	273	22¢	$60	0x8413da…
07-29 17:55:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 17:55 UTC	Down	BUY	120	50¢	$60	0x1f4005…
07-27 05:42:31	will ethereum reach 2000 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	55	73¢	$40	0x8be24d…
07-24 14:16:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0x3c5813…
07-23 13:50:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 13:50 UTC	Up	BUY	275	51¢	$140	0x5922c5…
07-23 13:45:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	226	44¢	$100	0x4d00e4…
07-22 18:06:45	dota2 z10 lvlup1 2026 07 22	Zero Tenacity	BUY	125	64¢	$80	0x133e39…
07-22 18:01:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	140	43¢	$60	0x131dec…
07-22 14:27:07	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 14:25 UTC	Down	BUY	177	28¢	$50	0x90fd73…
07-21 22:48:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 22:45 UTC	Down	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0x9c6105…
07-21 22:40:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 22:40 UTC	Up	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0xe047ea…
07-21 22:35:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 22:35 UTC	Down	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0xd860c3…
07-21 22:30:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 22:30 UTC	Up	BUY	245	41¢	$100	0xf554af…
07-21 22:25:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 22:25 UTC	Up	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x68cea4…
07-21 22:23:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 22:20 UTC	Down	BUY	709	28¢	$200	0xa1ace9…
07-21 22:15:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 22:15 UTC	Up	BUY	309	52¢	$160	0x4780c2…
07-21 22:10:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 22:10 UTC	Up	BUY	179	53¢	$95	0x185978…
07-21 22:05:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 22:05 UTC	Up	BUY	316	38¢	$120	0xf19fb3…
07-21 22:00:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 22:00 UTC	Up	BUY	435	23¢	$100	0x76bd3a…
07-20 14:20:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 14:20 UTC	Up	BUY	277	47¢	$130	0x5b1a35…
07-20 14:10:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 14:10 UTC	Down	BUY	209	67¢	$140	0x41eb4f…
07-20 14:05:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 14:05 UTC	Down	BUY	229	52¢	$120	0x3272ee…
07-20 14:00:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 14:00 UTC	Down	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0xfd0742…
07-20 09:51:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 09:50 UTC	Down	BUY	381	26¢	$100	0xd613ee…
07-20 09:45:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 09:45 UTC	Down	BUY	267	41¢	$110	0x2f4276…
07-20 09:40:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 09:40 UTC	Down	BUY	211	57¢	$120	0xae6e1e…
07-20 09:30:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 09:30 UTC	Down	BUY	230	52¢	$120	0xb8953f…
07-20 09:27:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 09:25 UTC	Down	BUY	255	39¢	$100	0x90fa91…
07-20 00:56:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 00:55 UTC	Up	BUY	155	45¢	$70	0xa96fa5…
07-20 00:50:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 00:50 UTC	Up	BUY	284	46¢	$130	0xb32fc7…
07-20 00:45:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 00:45 UTC	Up	BUY	305	39¢	$120	0x35f68a…
07-20 00:41:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 00:40 UTC	Up	BUY	177	56¢	$100	0x267b13…
07-20 00:34:34	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	69	100¢	$69	0x1edc29…
07-20 00:30:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	366	27¢	$100	0x9a0986…
07-20 00:25:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 00:25 UTC	Up	BUY	77	39¢	$30	0x2a53ec…
07-16 20:52:35	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on July 17?	Yes	BUY	48	63¢	$30	0x68b51e…
07-16 20:16:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	345	29¢	$100	0x6861f3…
07-16 20:10:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 20:10 UTC	Up	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0x95a4a0…
07-16 06:00:38	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	69	58¢	$40	0xeffda8…
07-16 05:59:37	Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	BUY	143	42¢	$60	0x96ca49…
07-15 22:05:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 22:05 UTC	Down	BUY	340	38¢	$130	0x3547aa…
07-15 22:00:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 22:00 UTC	Up	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0x748da5…
07-15 21:56:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 21:55 UTC	Down	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0x4a1445…
07-14 05:56:53	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0x27b308…
07-14 05:56:07	dota2 liquid xtreme 2026 07 14	Team Liquid	BUY	46	65¢	$30	0x5f12a6…
07-13 22:30:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 22:30 UTC	Down	BUY	481	27¢	$130	0x33d35f…
07-13 22:29:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 22:25 UTC	Down	BUY	194	15¢	$30	0x1a99d9…
07-13 22:21:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 22:20 UTC	Down	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x212218…
07-13 22:15:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 22:15 UTC	Down	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xcb9990…
07-13 22:10:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 22:10 UTC	Down	BUY	115	52¢	$60	0xda9d5f…
07-13 22:09:07	Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0x4a03b3…
07-12 21:36:53	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-12 21:35 UTC	Up	BUY	127	39¢	$50	0x40262c…
07-12 08:15:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-12 08:15 UTC	Down	BUY	140	50¢	$70	0x9060e6…
07-12 08:07:40	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-12 08:05 UTC	Up	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0xf43ebf…
07-10 22:33:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-10 22:30 UTC	Down	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x1fc83e…
07-10 22:31:47	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	103	58¢	$60	0x318872…
07-10 22:26:38	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	405	21¢	$85	0xd5fab4…
07-09 23:01:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0xce4b4e…
07-09 22:56:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 22:55 UTC	Up	BUY	128	39¢	$50	0x8e0c92…
07-09 22:49:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 22:45 UTC	Down	BUY	123	98¢	$120	0xdcc50e…
07-09 22:48:25	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	405	17¢	$70	0x89f5a1…