Foolish-Guarantee — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$342

Unrealized P&L

+$31

Hit rate

77.1%

Resolved

337

Trades

1,256

lifetime

Volume

$86.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$69

Open exposure

$16

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-25 00:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 124 days

Categories

Other

93% 43% +$320

Crypto

4% 92% +$20

Politics

2% 80% +$2

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No		+11	$11	100¢	$11	$0	09-25 00:08
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes		-87	-$36	5¢	$-5	+$31	06-09 02:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 180 199	60	$4.0K	2,022	2,022	+0	No	+$1	04-19 09:15
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	39	$2.9K	1,452	1,452	+0	No	+$4	05-03 20:23
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	4	$2.2K	1,080	1,080	+0	No	+$0	06-11 15:07
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	4	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$0	06-05 17:40
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	15	$1.9K	939	939	+0	No	+$0	05-17 02:22
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	12	$1.8K	900	900	+0	No	+$1	05-29 14:58
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	8	$1.6K	815	815	+0	No	+$4	06-02 06:09
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	12	$1.6K	811	811	+0	No	+$0	05-03 08:54
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 260 279	5	$1.6K	806	806	+0	No	+$2	04-16 23:51
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 80 99	4	$1.6K	800	800	+0	No	+$0	04-05 05:35
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 80 99	5	$1.6K	800	800	+0	No	+$0	04-14 18:24
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	6	$1.6K	800	800	+0	No	+$0	05-26 14:52
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	8	$1.6K	800	800	+0	No	+$0	05-08 05:23
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	7	$1.6K	800	800	+0	No	+$1	04-27 18:34
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 120 139	5	$1.6K	800	800	+0	No	+$0	04-20 05:58
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	11	$1.4K	800	572	+228	No	+$1	04-24 02:30
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	4	$1.3K	650	650	+0	No	+$2	04-29 01:22
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	6	$1.1K	767	367	+400	No	+$1	04-27 02:48
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	3	$1.1K	540	540	+0	No	+$0	06-10 14:10
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	3	$1.1K	540	540	+0	No	+$0	06-12 14:30
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	3	$999	500	500	+0	No	+$0	06-23 14:19
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	3	$999	500	500	+0	No	+$0	06-07 11:53
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	2	$999	500	500	+0	No	+$0	05-18 07:30
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	3	$999	500	500	+0	No	+$0	06-08 22:07
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	3	$996	500	500	+0	No	+$2	06-01 03:54
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 0 19	2	$823	412	412	+0	No	+$0	04-12 14:12
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 560 579	2	$801	401	401	+0	No	+$0	02-18 03:53
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 140 159	4	$801	936	909	+27	No	-$1	04-11 01:17
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 180 199	2	$799	400	400	+0	No	+$0	04-13 12:35
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	2	$799	400	400	+0	No	+$0	05-22 05:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-25 00:08:21	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xbdb799…
08-20 18:18:42	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2,212	0¢	$7	0x9717e8…
08-20 15:55:34	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x3fc829…
08-20 15:18:21	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x72af46…
08-20 14:35:49	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xac09d5…
08-20 14:21:03	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xbddaee…
08-20 14:20:43	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xf22c85…
08-20 12:26:13	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xa983c8…
08-20 11:01:54	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xf8ecad…
08-20 09:26:30	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	46	0¢	$0	0xa10ce9…
08-20 08:03:09	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xeca7b0…
08-20 07:45:48	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x817a56…
08-20 06:26:27	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x8cc829…
08-20 05:44:04	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x190920…
08-20 05:41:37	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x9f88a7…
08-20 05:38:37	dota2 vsn2 boombo 2026 08 20 game1 first blood	TEAM VISION	BUY	27	57¢	$15	0x904ba8…
08-20 05:34:25	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x44e0e5…
08-20 04:59:55	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x2916af…
08-20 04:57:13	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x144405…
08-20 04:45:04	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xd2570b…
08-20 04:44:18	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x174052…
08-20 04:34:45	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xe42777…
08-19 21:24:46	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x6c8661…
08-19 20:46:46	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0xfcb22b…
08-19 20:33:06	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x5a4380…
08-19 20:32:34	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x59dddc…
08-19 20:12:30	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x92cc48…
08-19 19:12:33	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x450e9e…
08-19 19:03:07	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x3353a7…
08-19 19:03:01	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x80c170…
08-19 18:26:46	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x4a93ef…
08-19 16:20:10	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xdfdbf1…
08-19 16:03:27	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xfa1abf…
08-19 16:03:13	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x0e9d36…
08-19 14:53:16	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x95dadf…
08-19 14:34:51	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x0397de…
08-19 14:01:31	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xd0e21f…
08-19 13:41:18	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x4759c6…
08-19 13:28:51	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xf1460d…
08-19 13:27:13	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	13	0¢	$0	0xf6e880…
08-19 13:19:36	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x0814bc…
08-19 13:07:04	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x056e4e…
08-19 13:00:45	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xa109d2…
08-19 12:41:07	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x8bee53…
08-19 08:47:04	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xcaddea…
08-19 08:05:45	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xdf630a…
08-19 05:51:03	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xa947b3…
08-19 04:39:24	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x59cf55…
08-19 02:48:04	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xa91c81…
08-19 02:10:16	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x8d0246…
08-19 01:53:06	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xa8d5e2…
08-19 00:12:34	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xa50492…
08-19 00:12:30	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x9f4cdf…
08-18 22:15:51	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x129592…
08-18 21:48:45	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xd35530…
08-18 21:38:52	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x0278c0…
08-18 20:26:39	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x2194f2…
08-18 20:25:54	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x1d4328…
08-18 20:25:49	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xca29f1…
08-18 20:01:09	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x6e14f8…
08-18 19:56:19	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x248850…
08-18 19:13:13	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	133	0¢	$0	0x7528cb…
08-18 18:59:42	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x321c08…
08-18 18:49:28	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x96f55f…
08-18 18:46:21	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x1aed63…
08-18 18:27:04	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xaf3a57…
08-18 18:26:03	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x083056…
08-18 17:37:34	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x84ab32…
08-18 10:27:46	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x1c914c…
08-18 10:27:33	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x4c3650…
08-18 10:22:48	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x71f0b9…
08-18 10:18:13	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xba1f75…
08-18 10:11:48	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xeec4f5…
08-18 10:09:51	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xf04702…
08-18 10:09:36	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xf8871e…
08-18 09:26:22	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xb4eb32…
08-18 01:48:19	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x75c201…
08-18 01:04:39	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x85a8e5…
08-18 00:30:49	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xf0769a…
08-18 00:19:48	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x567378…
08-18 00:18:24	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x339fa8…
08-18 00:16:33	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x2c7504…
08-17 22:39:54	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xad8600…
08-17 22:23:18	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xf02b75…
08-17 22:23:06	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0x35ac03…
08-17 20:05:24	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xc055c3…
08-17 19:35:49	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xb37e97…
08-17 19:03:49	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xef9479…
08-17 19:03:45	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x91659e…
08-17 17:35:24	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xee02f5…
08-17 17:35:07	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x74ee7b…
08-17 15:44:54	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x7d5cb8…
08-17 15:11:24	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x86f617…
08-17 15:09:21	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x337480…
08-17 14:58:34	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x004532…
08-17 14:58:31	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x1e59a5…
08-17 14:58:03	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x2e87c5…
08-17 14:56:43	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xaf7260…
08-17 14:35:21	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xbd6298…
08-17 14:35:18	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xeda2fb…