Thrifty-Bonnet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.5%

Resolved

Trades

703

lifetime

Volume

$16.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-02

last 06-21 15:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 47% +$4

Politics

46% 100% +$8

Other

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 59 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	9	$2.6K	9,832	9,832	+0	open	—	05-11 01:48
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	9	$1.8K	4,652	4,652	+0	open	—	05-01 11:22
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$503	845	845	+0	open	—	04-03 12:36
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	4	$438	699	699	+0	open	—	04-08 01:05
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	2	$403	307	307	+0	open	—	04-08 00:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	8	$364	238	190	+47	open	—	05-01 16:34
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	2	$300	455	0	+455	open	—	04-05 15:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	6	$292	168	168	+0	open	—	05-01 13:53
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$268	222	222	+0	open	—	04-08 04:04
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	2	$243	435	435	+0	open	—	04-08 00:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	7	$237	204	109	+96	open	—	05-01 16:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	8	$236	266	236	+30	open	—	05-01 13:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	5	$234	138	138	+0	open	—	05-01 13:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	6	$218	134	134	+0	open	—	05-01 13:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	4	$213	142	142	+0	open	—	05-01 13:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	5	$209	130	130	+0	open	—	05-01 13:13
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$200	269	0	+269	open	—	04-05 15:10
will trump say jesus christ during the white house easter egg roll	3	$194	147	147	+0	open	—	04-05 16:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	6	$185	215	0	+215	open	—	05-01 12:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	4	$179	125	125	+0	open	—	05-01 12:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	8	$160	692	500	+192	open	—	05-01 16:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	4	$157	83	83	+0	open	—	05-01 14:49
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	2	$151	143	143	+0	open	—	04-08 00:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	6	$150	221	0	+221	open	—	05-01 13:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	6	$150	270	0	+270	open	—	05-01 15:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	6	$150	190	0	+190	open	—	05-01 16:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	4	$147	89	89	+0	open	—	05-26 07:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	6	$146	235	0	+235	open	—	05-01 15:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	7	$135	257	0	+257	open	—	05-01 12:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	3	$127	192	89	+103	open	—	05-01 12:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-21 15:41:56	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 goals lamine yamal gte1	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xffa3de…
06-21 06:43:43	btc updown 5m 1782024000	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x323ffa…
06-21 05:30:17	fifwc tun jpn 2026 06 21 spread away 2pt5	Japan	SELL	14	85¢	$11	0xfd3832…
06-21 05:22:55	fifwc tun jpn 2026 06 21 spread away 2pt5	Japan	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x509bbd…
06-20 18:22:49	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 total 5pt5	Over	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xc9d730…
06-20 17:27:58	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	8	91¢	$8	0xc871b2…
06-20 16:43:59	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xd60a36…
06-18 08:40:55	btc updown 5m 1781772000	Up	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x07aa86…
06-18 08:39:41	btc updown 5m 1781771700	Up	SELL	9	96¢	$9	0x06288c…
06-18 08:38:59	btc updown 5m 1781771700	Up	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xa32eb5…
06-18 08:37:53	btc updown 5m 1781771700	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x1870f3…
06-18 08:23:11	btc updown 5m 1781770800	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x05d4ed…
06-18 08:21:50	btc updown 5m 1781770800	Down	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0x4ebba4…
06-18 08:18:49	btc updown 5m 1781770500	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xa3c62c…
06-18 08:17:46	btc updown 5m 1781770500	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x0b0123…
06-15 00:49:10	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x9d2f3f…
06-15 00:35:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0x884155…
06-01 07:21:58	Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	11¢	$3	0xbd99c9…
06-01 07:21:39	Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?	Yes	SELL	13	2¢	$0	0xa5c642…
05-26 09:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x22296e…
05-26 09:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x4c141e…
05-26 09:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0xf01bfd…
05-26 09:55:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x7800ba…
05-26 09:53:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	SELL	39	31¢	$12	0xd7547c…
05-26 09:51:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x6abe09…
05-26 09:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x2f0073…
05-26 09:44:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	25	85¢	$22	0xf22034…
05-26 09:41:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x2df1a1…
05-26 09:21:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0x2e2e1c…
05-26 09:21:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x36e3f6…
05-26 08:26:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	11	74¢	$8	0xa4c89f…
05-26 08:25:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x88f6b5…
05-26 07:43:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	SELL	28	5¢	$1	0x6a541a…
05-26 07:41:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x6667c5…
05-26 07:40:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xe247b1…
05-26 07:37:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	3	80¢	$2	0xd08273…
05-26 07:37:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	29	80¢	$23	0x89e7a7…
05-26 07:36:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0xf8782a…
05-26 07:32:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	SELL	7	82¢	$6	0x7cf334…
05-26 07:32:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	SELL	32	82¢	$26	0x0dc8da…
05-26 07:32:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	38	78¢	$30	0xfbede2…
05-26 07:30:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	SELL	8	70¢	$6	0xbc4ebd…
05-26 07:30:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	SELL	9	70¢	$6	0xb580d9…
05-26 07:30:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	SELL	5	70¢	$3	0x7692df…
05-26 07:30:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	SELL	15	70¢	$11	0x63a953…
05-26 07:30:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xb8be94…
05-26 07:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x2641d5…
05-26 07:28:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	12	47¢	$6	0x4c1e1e…
05-26 07:25:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xed33c7…
05-26 07:23:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0xb2d82b…
05-26 07:22:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x1564ee…
05-26 07:21:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	SELL	39	82¢	$32	0xc5c3d7…
05-26 07:20:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	39	76¢	$30	0xa5b2c8…
05-26 04:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	SELL	4	95¢	$3	0xbbdd16…
05-26 04:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	SELL	7	95¢	$6	0x502501…
05-26 04:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x2a99b8…
05-26 04:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0x1965b3…
05-26 04:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0x0b9f91…
05-26 04:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0x0114f4…
05-26 04:22:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	41	74¢	$30	0x22959e…
05-26 04:14:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x3899f9…
05-26 04:13:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xde99ce…
05-26 04:04:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	SELL	59	55¢	$33	0xe63aee…
05-26 04:03:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	59	50¢	$30	0x2437f0…
05-26 03:54:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	SELL	38	84¢	$32	0x1257b6…
05-26 03:53:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0x2a94e9…
05-26 03:45:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x069d31…
05-26 03:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xcce688…
05-26 03:18:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	SELL	14	76¢	$10	0xc73f55…
05-26 03:16:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x879774…
05-26 03:12:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	13	85¢	$11	0x3c2f2f…
05-26 03:11:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x74084a…
05-26 01:18:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x56b7ed…
05-26 01:14:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xd4c411…
05-26 01:03:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xff194b…
05-26 01:01:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xdfb0d7…
05-26 00:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x780fb6…
05-26 00:44:17	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	Yes	SELL	699	5¢	$35	0x090499…
05-25 10:56:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0x80d561…
05-25 10:56:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xf4ee62…
05-25 10:52:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x725941…
05-25 10:52:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x172aa5…
05-25 10:28:32	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	Yes	BUY	66	8¢	$5	0x595bd4…
05-25 10:18:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x409e39…
05-25 10:18:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x22a69c…
05-25 10:03:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	SELL	6	96¢	$5	0xf8c26a…
05-25 10:03:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x6b815c…
05-25 09:57:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	13	32¢	$4	0x62c607…
05-25 09:55:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x8f6e72…
05-25 09:53:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x72313c…
05-25 09:52:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x1aeba6…
05-25 09:50:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	SELL	8	84¢	$7	0x32d7f6…
05-25 09:50:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xaa4f89…
05-25 09:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x59aafe…
05-25 09:49:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x0bde2a…
05-25 09:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	SELL	17	24¢	$4	0x839983…
05-25 09:40:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x2a31ed…
05-25 09:17:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0x7489f0…
05-25 09:14:13	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x1dda88…
05-25 09:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	18	30¢	$5	0x49b21a…