Definite-Stool — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$35

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.1%

Resolved

Trades

517

lifetime

Volume

$13.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-27

last 06-11 11:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

58% 50% +$10

Other

30% 0% $-45

Pop-Culture

4% — —

Sports

4% — —

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 99 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	46	$3.3K	3,208	3,208	+0	open	—	04-19 22:02
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	35	$1.7K	1,802	1,802	+0	open	—	04-19 14:59
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?	26	$774	937	937	+0	No	+$10	04-22 00:06
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$597	667	0	+667	open	—	02-28 01:27
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	9	$576	669	669	+0	open	—	04-19 16:43
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026?	9	$553	562	562	+0	open	—	04-21 14:33
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians	17	$433	621	577	+44	open	—	04-21 22:25
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	8	$408	466	466	+0	open	—	04-24 10:45
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	7	$313	368	368	+0	open	—	05-11 19:47
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?	4	$307	212	212	+0	open	—	05-22 15:25
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	15	$289	535	535	+0	open	—	04-23 13:42
Will T1 qualify for EWC 2026?	3	$280	291	291	+0	open	—	04-22 08:21
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?	9	$258	261	261	+0	open	—	05-25 22:56
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	5	$249	191	191	+0	open	—	04-24 23:24
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color?	8	$210	201	201	+0	open	—	04-23 04:22
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	12	$186	645	645	+0	open	—	04-20 20:05
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	23	$178	261	249	+12	open	—	04-19 03:26
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	3	$175	153	153	+0	open	—	05-02 04:56
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	2	$145	103	103	+0	open	—	06-02 09:12
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	78	$143	442	442	+0	open	—	04-22 21:35
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	5	$142	176	176	+0	open	—	04-30 18:40
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?	2	$140	105	105	+0	open	—	06-02 13:48
Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by May 31, 2026?	4	$128	164	164	+0	open	—	04-30 01:14
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	12	$127	200	200	-0	open	—	04-26 12:29
Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	5	$119	153	152	+1	No	$-22	04-22 07:42
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in May?	3	$115	162	162	+0	open	—	05-01 17:58
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?	5	$105	169	89	+80	open	—	05-02 03:43
James Comey charges dropped by May 31?	6	$103	160	160	+0	open	—	04-29 03:57
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	7	$102	93	93	-0	open	—	06-10 17:43
will andurils valuation hit high 95b by june 30	3	$93	56	60	-4	open	—	06-11 02:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 11:36:31	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	SELL	9	38¢	$3	0xb977c0…
06-11 11:16:43	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	SELL	50	41¢	$20	0x5a9594…
06-11 10:40:39	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	19	43¢	$8	0x3d61e3…
06-11 10:37:33	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x0fcb39…
06-11 10:37:01	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xa2c8a6…
06-11 10:35:58	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xc5fab9…
06-11 10:35:49	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x72e080…
06-11 03:05:00	will trump praise delcy rodriguez by june 30	No	SELL	12	60¢	$8	0xc784c2…
06-11 02:59:18	will andurils valuation hit high 95b by june 30	No	SELL	9	77¢	$7	0x5209c4…
06-11 02:39:24	will trump praise delcy rodriguez by june 30	No	BUY	12	60¢	$8	0xfb26ad…
06-11 02:19:12	will andurils valuation hit high 95b by june 30	No	SELL	51	80¢	$41	0x8ca57d…
06-11 01:55:45	will andurils valuation hit high 95b by june 30	No	BUY	56	80¢	$45	0x276d6d…
06-10 20:57:24	will stripes valuation hit high 190b by december 31	No	SELL	60	24¢	$14	0x77d76d…
06-10 20:52:18	will stripes valuation hit high 190b by december 31	No	BUY	60	45¢	$27	0xa5243e…
06-10 17:43:33	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	No	SELL	42	69¢	$29	0xac8520…
06-10 16:35:03	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	No	SELL	12	71¢	$9	0xff2a88…
06-10 16:01:00	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	No	SELL	8	83¢	$6	0x94f924…
06-10 15:34:34	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	No	BUY	62	74¢	$46	0x492d2f…
06-10 14:17:15	will abnb reach 144 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	58	23¢	$13	0x4452e6…
06-10 14:05:18	will abnb reach 144 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0xd81b25…
06-10 13:46:49	will abnb reach 144 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x78aed5…
06-10 11:11:01	will ismala sarr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	52	51¢	$26	0xe5a86d…
06-10 10:39:45	will ismala sarr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	8	54¢	$4	0x6a3ecd…
06-10 10:17:36	will tsla reach 450 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0x382640…
06-10 10:06:28	will tsla reach 450 in june 2026	No	SELL	6	75¢	$4	0xca469f…
06-10 09:16:37	will tsla reach 450 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0xf1bb8f…
06-10 08:03:54	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	Yes	SELL	24	18¢	$4	0xad20f7…
06-10 07:36:00	will ismala sarr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	34	55¢	$19	0x47011f…
06-10 07:28:57	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	Yes	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0x11934d…
06-10 07:01:01	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	Yes	BUY	31	20¢	$6	0x3dd412…
06-10 06:32:57	will tsla reach 450 in june 2026	No	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0x2f36bf…
06-10 05:33:48	will ismala sarr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x0ba23e…
06-03 22:21:52	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	SELL	35	47¢	$16	0xc02d6d…
06-03 22:18:43	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	SELL	44	48¢	$21	0x8c9800…
06-03 22:01:46	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6f960b…
06-03 21:58:21	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	7	50¢	$3	0x76babe…
06-03 21:05:51	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9ec461…
06-03 21:00:22	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x1b323b…
06-03 20:56:04	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xabd854…
06-03 20:54:52	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x5872c3…
06-03 20:54:01	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x6f0634…
06-03 20:49:18	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xb26f77…
06-03 20:43:25	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x143a3b…
06-03 17:58:03	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?	No	SELL	56	38¢	$21	0xaddf9a…
06-03 16:32:16	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in June?	Yes	SELL	103	29¢	$30	0xa0f32c…
06-03 16:32:16	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 in June?	No	SELL	14	25¢	$3	0x0d6c9a…
06-03 16:13:52	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in June?	Yes	BUY	103	36¢	$37	0x708220…
06-03 16:00:18	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 in June?	No	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0xbcb09d…
06-03 15:18:04	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?	No	BUY	56	39¢	$22	0xd18318…
06-03 15:08:49	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June?	Yes	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0x1693b1…
06-03 15:03:48	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June?	Yes	BUY	103	27¢	$28	0xa920b9…
06-03 13:53:20	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June?	No	SELL	90	13¢	$12	0x4f73ad…
06-03 12:06:30	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June?	No	SELL	14	16¢	$2	0x51dc4e…
06-03 11:58:51	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June?	No	BUY	104	24¢	$25	0x193d13…
06-03 09:16:06	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	18	30¢	$5	0xccd11b…
06-03 09:16:06	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	18	30¢	$5	0xc492d9…
06-03 09:03:34	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	37	30¢	$11	0x7aedf1…
06-03 07:44:28	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	12	69¢	$8	0xc6951e…
06-03 06:30:05	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0x883447…
06-03 03:42:58	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	101	31¢	$31	0xc1c0bb…
06-03 00:46:34	Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by June 30?	Yes	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0x8baabc…
06-03 00:20:52	Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by June 30?	Yes	BUY	103	63¢	$65	0x053af6…
06-02 21:18:49	Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?	No	SELL	52	25¢	$13	0x7fddb0…
06-02 20:57:54	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	No	SELL	83	25¢	$21	0xc3c09d…
06-02 20:57:54	Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?	No	SELL	50	25¢	$12	0x44bfb7…
06-02 20:57:52	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	No	SELL	13	25¢	$3	0xc36b8e…
06-02 20:51:39	Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?	No	BUY	102	29¢	$30	0xd78978…
06-02 20:51:06	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	No	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x0ef75f…
06-02 20:48:50	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	No	BUY	25	29¢	$7	0x2866b0…
06-02 20:47:01	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	No	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x7fd67a…
06-02 20:45:04	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	No	BUY	28	29¢	$8	0xaa16fd…
06-02 19:31:02	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x505d49…
06-02 19:13:55	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June?	Yes	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0xa66c77…
06-02 19:08:52	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June?	Yes	BUY	105	24¢	$25	0xea8899…
06-02 14:17:28	will 9z qualify to the iem cologne 2026 playoffs	Yes	SELL	103	10¢	$10	0x795bb4…
06-02 14:12:25	will 9z qualify to the iem cologne 2026 playoffs	Yes	BUY	103	15¢	$15	0x914392…
06-02 13:48:46	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?	Yes	SELL	105	66¢	$69	0x096ff7…
06-02 13:38:35	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?	Yes	BUY	105	67¢	$71	0x6aa27d…
06-02 13:31:55	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 in June?	No	BUY	104	55¢	$57	0x52688c…
06-02 12:59:32	Will The MongolZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs?	No	SELL	23	16¢	$4	0xfd52df…
06-02 12:19:56	Will The MongolZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs?	No	BUY	23	56¢	$13	0xacc3bf…
06-02 09:12:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	No	SELL	103	70¢	$72	0xe8517d…
06-02 09:03:05	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	No	BUY	103	71¢	$73	0xbf797b…
05-26 11:26:13	Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42B by June 30?	No	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x51c827…
05-26 10:35:46	Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42B by June 30?	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x1bf762…
05-25 22:56:26	Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	103	86¢	$89	0x225399…
05-25 22:49:10	Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	81¢	$84	0x0cf140…
05-25 14:37:53	Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	80	21¢	$17	0xd2a3f6…
05-25 14:28:30	Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x2e039b…
05-25 13:51:06	Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x39f315…
05-25 00:55:42	Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	58	34¢	$20	0xa2d99a…
05-25 00:05:17	Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x0db1a8…
05-25 00:05:04	Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0x008fbd…
05-24 21:34:38	Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	34¢	$15	0x7c7c8e…
05-22 15:25:37	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?	No	SELL	152	70¢	$106	0x5d3d6d…
05-22 15:25:07	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?	No	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0x5d6059…
05-22 15:04:17	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?	No	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0x077a58…
05-22 14:52:02	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?	No	BUY	212	75¢	$159	0xe955c1…
05-11 19:47:49	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	SELL	112	32¢	$36	0xad73f9…
05-11 19:43:44	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	SELL	31	32¢	$10	0x8d9d16…