Definite-Stool — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$35

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.1%

Resolved

Trades

563

lifetime

Volume

$14.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-27

last 06-14 15:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

54% 50% +$10

Other

29% 0% $-45

Sports

9% — —

Pop-Culture

4% — —

Tech

2% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 99 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	46	$3.3K	3,208	3,208	+0	open	—	04-19 22:02
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	35	$1.7K	1,802	1,802	+0	open	—	04-19 14:59
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?	26	$774	937	937	+0	No	+$10	04-22 00:06
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$597	667	0	+667	open	—	02-28 01:27
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	9	$576	669	669	+0	open	—	04-19 16:43
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026?	9	$553	562	562	+0	open	—	04-21 14:33
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians	17	$433	621	577	+44	open	—	04-21 22:25
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	8	$408	466	466	+0	open	—	04-24 10:45
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	7	$313	368	368	+0	open	—	05-11 19:47
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?	4	$307	212	212	+0	open	—	05-22 15:25
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	15	$289	535	535	+0	open	—	04-23 13:42
Will T1 qualify for EWC 2026?	3	$280	291	291	+0	open	—	04-22 08:21
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?	9	$258	261	261	+0	open	—	05-25 22:56
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	5	$249	191	191	+0	open	—	04-24 23:24
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color?	8	$210	201	201	+0	open	—	04-23 04:22
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	12	$186	645	645	+0	open	—	04-20 20:05
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	23	$178	261	249	+12	open	—	04-19 03:26
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	3	$175	153	153	+0	open	—	05-02 04:56
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	2	$145	103	103	+0	open	—	06-02 09:12
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	78	$143	442	442	+0	open	—	04-22 21:35
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	5	$142	176	176	+0	open	—	04-30 18:40
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?	2	$140	105	105	+0	open	—	06-02 13:48
Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by May 31, 2026?	4	$128	164	164	+0	open	—	04-30 01:14
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	12	$127	200	200	-0	open	—	04-26 12:29
will lionel messi score 4 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144833283	5	$122	109	109	+0	open	—	06-12 13:26
Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	5	$119	153	152	+1	No	$-22	04-22 07:42
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in May?	3	$115	162	162	+0	open	—	05-01 17:58
will andurils valuation hit high 95b by june 30	5	$109	71	74	-4	open	—	06-12 11:53
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?	5	$105	169	89	+80	open	—	05-02 03:43
James Comey charges dropped by May 31?	6	$103	160	160	+0	open	—	04-29 03:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 15:11:09	will ecuador be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003066	No	SELL	56	9¢	$5	0x7890c7…
06-14 14:33:27	will ecuador be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003066	No	BUY	56	70¢	$39	0x957c70…
06-14 07:57:27	will 4 matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610211249341	Yes	SELL	55	20¢	$11	0xf999b9…
06-13 20:47:55	will canada be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003052	No	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0xd04fe7…
06-13 20:31:25	will morocco be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003069	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x93122a…
06-13 19:55:28	will canada be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003052	No	BUY	21	82¢	$17	0x7f5793…
06-13 19:29:13	will morocco be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003069	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x59ed51…
06-13 12:41:28	will there be 5 missed penalties during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610205750573	Yes	SELL	56	78¢	$44	0x535a92…
06-13 12:33:03	will there be 5 missed penalties during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610205750573	Yes	BUY	56	79¢	$45	0xb5af32…
06-13 11:25:19	will there be 15 missed penalties during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610205750575	Yes	SELL	55	19¢	$10	0x79ee53…
06-12 15:51:09	will kylian mbappe score 6 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144023007	No	SELL	11	32¢	$4	0x7e99dc…
06-12 15:33:58	will kylian mbappe score 6 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144023007	No	BUY	11	70¢	$8	0x10861f…
06-12 14:26:43	will mikel merino score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	57	47¢	$27	0x04089f…
06-12 14:16:49	will mikel merino score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	57	60¢	$34	0xa962bd…
06-12 14:11:09	will bernardo silva score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x71aa19…
06-12 13:26:21	will lionel messi score 4 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144833283	No	SELL	101	45¢	$45	0xb59bd1…
06-12 13:19:52	will bernardo silva score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x0e272b…
06-12 12:43:25	will lionel messi score 4 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144833283	No	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0x5f08a5…
06-12 12:28:21	will lionel messi score 4 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144833283	No	BUY	55	67¢	$37	0x41b6b5…
06-12 11:53:25	will andurils valuation hit high 95b by june 30	No	SELL	14	54¢	$8	0x43e847…
06-12 11:48:24	will folarin balogun score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	49	20¢	$10	0xa6e726…
06-12 11:44:07	will lionel messi score 4 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144833283	No	BUY	48	70¢	$33	0xad9ca9…
06-12 11:43:00	will lionel messi score 4 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144833283	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x377bdc…
06-12 11:17:37	will folarin balogun score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0xa4363d…
06-12 10:37:21	will andurils valuation hit high 95b by june 30	No	BUY	14	60¢	$9	0x677a63…
06-12 09:58:57	will folarin balogun score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xd50557…
06-12 09:48:43	will folarin balogun score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	25	34¢	$8	0x8bba36…
06-12 08:56:19	will ibrahim sangar score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	57	50¢	$29	0xe4f570…
06-12 08:45:13	will ibrahim sangar score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	57	61¢	$35	0xb71f29…
06-12 08:24:00	will rklb reach 140 in june 2026	No	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0x962c8b…
06-12 08:18:00	will rklb reach 140 in june 2026	No	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0xc6174b…
06-12 08:07:13	world cup messi to score 2 penalties 20260605004829032	No	SELL	29	44¢	$13	0xdaeaa3…
06-12 07:49:27	world cup messi to score 2 penalties 20260605004829032	No	BUY	29	44¢	$13	0xe0c25c…
06-12 06:59:51	will alexis mac allister score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x22ed07…
06-12 06:07:21	will son heung min score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	50	74¢	$37	0x899509…
06-12 05:57:55	will alexis mac allister score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xfdbf32…
06-12 05:31:33	will folarin balogun score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	7	34¢	$2	0x2cc050…
06-12 05:20:48	will son heung min score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x3428be…
06-12 04:08:04	will folarin balogun score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	57	36¢	$21	0xf5f0dd…
06-11 22:35:43	will xauusd reach 4700 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	22	15¢	$3	0x4883d9…
06-11 22:29:49	will portugal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149749	No	SELL	29	64¢	$18	0x7d1d31…
06-11 22:13:16	will xauusd reach 4700 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	22	15¢	$3	0x7394c5…
06-11 21:48:55	will portugal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149749	No	SELL	30	63¢	$19	0x1e6ad0…
06-11 21:42:22	will portugal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149749	No	BUY	59	67¢	$39	0xe17fef…
06-11 17:24:09	will databricks valuation hit high 180b by december 31	Yes	SELL	15	25¢	$4	0x16319a…
06-11 16:37:01	will databricks valuation hit high 180b by december 31	Yes	BUY	15	49¢	$7	0xfbdb24…
06-11 11:36:31	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	SELL	9	38¢	$3	0xb977c0…
06-11 11:16:43	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	SELL	50	41¢	$20	0x5a9594…
06-11 10:40:39	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	19	43¢	$8	0x3d61e3…
06-11 10:37:33	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x0fcb39…
06-11 10:37:01	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xa2c8a6…
06-11 10:35:58	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xc5fab9…
06-11 10:35:49	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x72e080…
06-11 03:05:00	will trump praise delcy rodriguez by june 30	No	SELL	12	60¢	$8	0xc784c2…
06-11 02:59:18	will andurils valuation hit high 95b by june 30	No	SELL	9	77¢	$7	0x5209c4…
06-11 02:39:24	will trump praise delcy rodriguez by june 30	No	BUY	12	60¢	$8	0xfb26ad…
06-11 02:19:12	will andurils valuation hit high 95b by june 30	No	SELL	51	80¢	$41	0x8ca57d…
06-11 01:55:45	will andurils valuation hit high 95b by june 30	No	BUY	56	80¢	$45	0x276d6d…
06-10 20:57:24	will stripes valuation hit high 190b by december 31	No	SELL	60	24¢	$14	0x77d76d…
06-10 20:52:18	will stripes valuation hit high 190b by december 31	No	BUY	60	45¢	$27	0xa5243e…
06-10 17:43:33	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	No	SELL	42	69¢	$29	0xac8520…
06-10 16:35:03	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	No	SELL	12	71¢	$9	0xff2a88…
06-10 16:01:00	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	No	SELL	8	83¢	$6	0x94f924…
06-10 15:34:34	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	No	BUY	62	74¢	$46	0x492d2f…
06-10 14:17:15	will abnb reach 144 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	58	23¢	$13	0x4452e6…
06-10 14:05:18	will abnb reach 144 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0xd81b25…
06-10 13:46:49	will abnb reach 144 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x78aed5…
06-10 11:11:01	will ismala sarr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	52	51¢	$26	0xe5a86d…
06-10 10:39:45	will ismala sarr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	8	54¢	$4	0x6a3ecd…
06-10 10:17:36	will tsla reach 450 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0x382640…
06-10 10:06:28	will tsla reach 450 in june 2026	No	SELL	6	75¢	$4	0xca469f…
06-10 09:16:37	will tsla reach 450 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0xf1bb8f…
06-10 08:03:54	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	Yes	SELL	24	18¢	$4	0xad20f7…
06-10 07:36:00	will ismala sarr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	34	55¢	$19	0x47011f…
06-10 07:28:57	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	Yes	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0x11934d…
06-10 07:01:01	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	Yes	BUY	31	20¢	$6	0x3dd412…
06-10 06:32:57	will tsla reach 450 in june 2026	No	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0x2f36bf…
06-10 05:33:48	will ismala sarr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x0ba23e…
06-03 22:21:52	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	SELL	35	47¢	$16	0xc02d6d…
06-03 22:18:43	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	SELL	44	48¢	$21	0x8c9800…
06-03 22:01:46	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6f960b…
06-03 21:58:21	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	7	50¢	$3	0x76babe…
06-03 21:05:51	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9ec461…
06-03 21:00:22	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x1b323b…
06-03 20:56:04	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xabd854…
06-03 20:54:52	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x5872c3…
06-03 20:54:01	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x6f0634…
06-03 20:49:18	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xb26f77…
06-03 20:43:25	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x143a3b…
06-03 17:58:03	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?	No	SELL	56	38¢	$21	0xaddf9a…
06-03 16:32:16	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in June?	Yes	SELL	103	29¢	$30	0xa0f32c…
06-03 16:32:16	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 in June?	No	SELL	14	25¢	$3	0x0d6c9a…
06-03 16:13:52	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in June?	Yes	BUY	103	36¢	$37	0x708220…
06-03 16:00:18	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 in June?	No	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0xbcb09d…
06-03 15:18:04	Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?	No	BUY	56	39¢	$22	0xd18318…
06-03 15:08:49	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June?	Yes	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0x1693b1…
06-03 15:03:48	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June?	Yes	BUY	103	27¢	$28	0xa920b9…
06-03 13:53:20	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June?	No	SELL	90	13¢	$12	0x4f73ad…
06-03 12:06:30	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June?	No	SELL	14	16¢	$2	0x51dc4e…
06-03 11:58:51	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June?	No	BUY	104	24¢	$25	0x193d13…