Definite-Stool — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.44K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

12.1%

Resolved

134

Trades

778

lifetime

Volume

$19.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-27

last 06-14 15:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Politics

49% 21% -$1,037

Other

32% 14% -$927

Sports

9% 3% -$303

Pop-Culture

4% 0% -$38

Tech

4% 0% -$123

Crypto

3% 0% -$10

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-14).

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	46	$3.3K	3,208	3,208	+0	No	-$5	04-19 22:02
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	35	$1.7K	1,802	1,802	+0	Yes	-$206	04-19 14:59
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?	26	$774	937	937	+0	No	+$10	04-22 00:06
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$597	667	0	+667	Yes	-$597	02-28 01:27
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	9	$576	669	669	+0	No	$0	04-19 16:43
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026?	9	$553	562	562	+0	Yes	-$8	04-21 14:33
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians	17	$433	621	577	+44	Yes	-$181	04-21 22:25
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	8	$408	466	466	+0	No	-$44	04-24 10:45
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?	12	$379	329	329	+0	Yes	+$1	05-22 11:02
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	7	$313	368	368	+0	No	-$44	05-11 19:47
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?	4	$307	212	212	+0	Yes	-$11	05-22 15:25
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	5	$299	198	198	+0	No	+$5	05-11 20:39
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	15	$289	535	535	+0	Yes	-$199	04-23 13:42
Will T1 qualify for EWC 2026?	3	$280	291	291	+0	Yes	-$70	04-22 08:21
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?	9	$258	261	261	+0	Yes	+$0	05-25 22:56
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?	5	$249	191	191	+0	No	-$16	04-24 23:24
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	4	$213	207	207	-0	open	—	05-23 06:05
Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?	8	$211	234	234	+0	open	—	05-15 21:24
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?	5	$210	155	155	+0	No	-$19	05-27 07:56
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color?	8	$210	201	201	+0	Yes	-$60	04-23 04:22
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $160B by December 31?	3	$199	227	227	+0	Yes	-$46	05-21 16:18
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	12	$186	645	645	+0	Yes	-$85	04-20 20:05
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	23	$178	261	249	+12	Yes	-$1	04-19 03:26
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	3	$175	153	153	+0	Yes	-$28	05-02 04:56
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	4	$163	147	147	+0	No	-$5	05-03 01:06
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?	6	$146	158	158	+0	No	-$13	05-01 03:57
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?	2	$145	103	103	+0	Yes	-$1	06-02 09:12
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	78	$143	442	442	+0	No	-$42	04-22 21:35
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	5	$142	176	176	+0	No	-$16	04-30 18:40
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?	2	$140	105	105	+0	Yes	-$1	06-02 13:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-14 15:12:12	Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?	Yes	SELL	4	38¢	$2	0x63ee0e…
06-14 15:11:09	will ecuador be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003066	No	SELL	56	9¢	$5	0x7890c7…
06-14 14:33:27	will ecuador be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003066	No	BUY	56	70¢	$39	0x957c70…
06-14 09:53:25	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?	Yes	SELL	29	34¢	$10	0x573dc5…
06-14 09:47:30	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?	Yes	SELL	35	34¢	$12	0x539cdd…
06-14 09:22:25	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?	Yes	SELL	47	39¢	$19	0xa41d05…
06-14 09:11:03	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?	Yes	BUY	54	53¢	$29	0x7901d8…
06-14 09:04:45	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?	Yes	BUY	57	55¢	$32	0x9afabc…
06-14 08:12:24	Will Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup?	No	SELL	29	30¢	$9	0xa13931…
06-14 07:57:27	will 4 matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610211249341	Yes	SELL	55	20¢	$11	0xf999b9…
06-14 07:51:52	Will 4+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	55	25¢	$14	0x1b7713…
06-14 07:16:39	Will Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup?	No	BUY	29	33¢	$10	0xd8f65b…
06-13 23:05:18	Will Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	32	72¢	$23	0x2f9b56…
06-13 22:37:58	Will Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0x723106…
06-13 22:32:58	Will Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	13	31¢	$4	0x8601e1…
06-13 22:27:07	Will Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	32	81¢	$26	0x410313…
06-13 22:18:16	Will Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xc9701c…
06-13 21:14:49	Will Canada be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?	No	SELL	16	77¢	$12	0xfdcd96…
06-13 20:56:18	Will Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	13	18¢	$2	0x8a446d…
06-13 20:47:55	will canada be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003052	No	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0xd04fe7…
06-13 20:47:55	Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	No	SELL	56	17¢	$9	0x5e143f…
06-13 20:31:25	will morocco be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003069	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x93122a…
06-13 20:26:51	Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	No	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x2d219f…
06-13 19:58:30	Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	No	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xf8212b…
06-13 19:55:28	will canada be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003052	No	BUY	21	82¢	$17	0x7f5793…
06-13 19:29:13	will morocco be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003069	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x59ed51…
06-13 15:48:45	Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	No	SELL	11	33¢	$4	0xbd41d9…
06-13 15:10:49	Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	36	35¢	$13	0x539b59…
06-13 14:45:28	Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0xc43d4b…
06-13 14:39:51	Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	56	40¢	$22	0xd156ad…
06-13 14:37:48	Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	No	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0x4967a1…
06-13 13:25:43	Will USA be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	19	17¢	$3	0x54aea2…
06-13 13:20:42	Will USA be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x495dd9…
06-13 12:41:28	will there be 5 missed penalties during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610205750573	Yes	SELL	56	78¢	$44	0x535a92…
06-13 12:33:03	will there be 5 missed penalties during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610205750573	Yes	BUY	56	79¢	$45	0xb5af32…
06-13 11:25:19	will there be 15 missed penalties during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610205750575	Yes	SELL	55	19¢	$10	0x79ee53…
06-13 10:18:09	Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	55	19¢	$10	0xdd2671…
06-12 16:04:07	Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x623659…
06-12 15:51:09	will kylian mbappe score 6 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144023007	No	SELL	11	32¢	$4	0x7e99dc…
06-12 15:33:58	will kylian mbappe score 6 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144023007	No	BUY	11	70¢	$8	0x10861f…
06-12 15:25:22	Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xba15fb…
06-12 14:26:43	will mikel merino score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	57	47¢	$27	0x04089f…
06-12 14:16:49	will mikel merino score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	57	60¢	$34	0xa962bd…
06-12 14:11:09	will bernardo silva score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x71aa19…
06-12 13:26:21	will lionel messi score 4 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144833283	No	SELL	101	45¢	$45	0xb59bd1…
06-12 13:19:52	will bernardo silva score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x0e272b…
06-12 12:43:25	will lionel messi score 4 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144833283	No	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0x5f08a5…
06-12 12:28:21	will lionel messi score 4 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144833283	No	BUY	55	67¢	$37	0x41b6b5…
06-12 11:53:25	will andurils valuation hit high 95b by june 30	No	SELL	14	54¢	$8	0x43e847…
06-12 11:48:24	will folarin balogun score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	49	20¢	$10	0xa6e726…
06-12 11:44:07	will lionel messi score 4 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144833283	No	BUY	48	70¢	$33	0xad9ca9…
06-12 11:43:00	will lionel messi score 4 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144833283	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x377bdc…
06-12 11:17:37	will folarin balogun score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0xa4363d…
06-12 10:37:21	will andurils valuation hit high 95b by june 30	No	BUY	14	60¢	$9	0x677a63…
06-12 10:37:03	Will Portugal be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	15	60¢	$9	0x1f00b8…
06-12 09:58:57	will folarin balogun score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xd50557…
06-12 09:48:43	will folarin balogun score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	25	34¢	$8	0x8bba36…
06-12 09:12:25	Will Portugal be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	40	59¢	$24	0xd7e833…
06-12 09:05:19	Will Portugal be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	55	75¢	$41	0x7d47d1…
06-12 08:56:19	will ibrahim sangar score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	57	50¢	$29	0xe4f570…
06-12 08:45:13	will ibrahim sangar score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	57	61¢	$35	0xb71f29…
06-12 08:24:00	will rklb reach 140 in june 2026	No	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0x962c8b…
06-12 08:18:00	will rklb reach 140 in june 2026	No	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0xc6174b…
06-12 08:07:13	world cup messi to score 2 penalties 20260605004829032	No	SELL	29	44¢	$13	0xdaeaa3…
06-12 07:51:57	Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	8	35¢	$3	0xaf34d2…
06-12 07:49:27	world cup messi to score 2 penalties 20260605004829032	No	BUY	29	44¢	$13	0xe0c25c…
06-12 06:59:51	will alexis mac allister score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x22ed07…
06-12 06:59:10	Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x07f4ff…
06-12 06:07:21	will son heung min score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	50	74¢	$37	0x899509…
06-12 05:57:55	will alexis mac allister score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xfdbf32…
06-12 05:31:33	will folarin balogun score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	7	34¢	$2	0x2cc050…
06-12 05:20:48	will son heung min score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x3428be…
06-12 04:08:04	will folarin balogun score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	57	36¢	$21	0xf5f0dd…
06-12 01:51:55	Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	34	42¢	$14	0xee86fe…
06-12 00:57:03	Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0xc3d308…
06-12 00:27:33	Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	SELL	6	49¢	$3	0xc49f66…
06-12 00:12:43	Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	39	44¢	$17	0xdcac48…
06-11 23:31:10	Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xee4c1a…
06-11 22:35:43	will xauusd reach 4700 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	22	15¢	$3	0x4883d9…
06-11 22:29:49	will portugal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149749	No	SELL	29	64¢	$18	0x7d1d31…
06-11 22:13:16	will xauusd reach 4700 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	22	15¢	$3	0x7394c5…
06-11 21:48:55	will portugal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149749	No	SELL	30	63¢	$19	0x1e6ad0…
06-11 21:42:22	will portugal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149749	No	BUY	59	67¢	$39	0xe17fef…
06-11 21:32:01	Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	50	50¢	$25	0xeabb63…
06-11 21:26:58	Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0x6bc170…
06-11 21:26:58	Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x10d2b0…
06-11 17:24:09	will databricks valuation hit high 180b by december 31	Yes	SELL	15	25¢	$4	0x16319a…
06-11 16:37:01	will databricks valuation hit high 180b by december 31	Yes	BUY	15	49¢	$7	0xfbdb24…
06-11 11:36:31	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	SELL	9	38¢	$3	0xb977c0…
06-11 11:16:43	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	SELL	50	41¢	$20	0x5a9594…
06-11 10:40:39	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	19	43¢	$8	0x3d61e3…
06-11 10:37:33	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x0fcb39…
06-11 10:37:01	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xa2c8a6…
06-11 10:35:58	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xc5fab9…
06-11 10:35:49	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x72e080…
06-11 03:05:00	will trump praise delcy rodriguez by june 30	No	SELL	12	60¢	$8	0xc784c2…
06-11 02:59:18	will andurils valuation hit high 95b by june 30	No	SELL	9	77¢	$7	0x5209c4…
06-11 02:39:24	will trump praise delcy rodriguez by june 30	No	BUY	12	60¢	$8	0xfb26ad…
06-11 02:19:12	will andurils valuation hit high 95b by june 30	No	SELL	51	80¢	$41	0x8ca57d…
06-11 01:55:45	will andurils valuation hit high 95b by june 30	No	BUY	56	80¢	$45	0x276d6d…