Well-Informed-Loaf — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$99

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

80.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.65K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$63

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-19

last 10-24 16:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Politics

51% 86% +$34

Tech

37% 86% -$134

Other

11% 60% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	3	$287	160	153	+7	No	-$6	06-12 15:51
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	8	$285	173	173	+0	Yes	+$1	06-06 06:55
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	3	$236	124	124	-0	No	+$12	05-28 04:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$220	112	112	+0	No	+$4	05-27 05:46
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	2	$214	119	119	+0	No	+$2	05-26 14:49
will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	2	$170	191	191	+0	Yes	-$170	07-02 16:41
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	1	$157	165	0	+165	No	+$8	06-18 10:14
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	2	$143	146	0	+146	No	+$2	06-06 19:58
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	1	$140	157	0	+157	No	+$17	06-17 15:02
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	1	$138	143	0	+143	No	+$5	05-31 07:00
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$128	65	65	+0	No	+$1	05-24 07:50
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	1	$124	138	0	+138	No	+$14	05-28 07:01
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	1	$100	106	0	+106	No	+$6	06-26 08:39
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	3	$90	53	40	+13	Yes	+$1	04-11 11:07
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$50	52	0	+52	No	+$2	04-01 11:07
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	03-19 03:57
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	1	$50	51	0	+51	Yes	+$1	03-21 03:31
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	2	$43	1	42	-41	No	-$1	05-24 07:50
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	2	$18	20	20	+0	open	—	09-26 01:58
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	2	$10	37	0	+37	open	—	10-24 16:33
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	1	$1	10	0	+10	No	-$1	07-31 08:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 16:33:50	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0xe5f37b…
10-24 07:58:17	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	28¢	$6	0x13450c…
09-26 01:58:54	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0xfdf6ed…
09-17 13:20:48	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x9916d7…
07-31 08:04:33	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb289ac…
07-02 16:41:13	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	SELL	191	0¢	$0	0xaed13f…
06-30 17:07:40	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	BUY	191	89¢	$170	0x12aac0…
06-26 08:39:28	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xc1f9b4…
06-18 10:14:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 19	No	BUY	165	95¢	$157	0x4418bb…
06-17 15:02:41	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 17	No	BUY	157	89¢	$140	0xe6d8e8…
06-12 15:51:03	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	Yes	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0x0a52cb…
06-12 13:32:40	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	SELL	153	92¢	$141	0x2607df…
06-10 09:53:18	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	153	95¢	$146	0x74306e…
06-06 19:58:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	BUY	121	98¢	$119	0xf936e8…
06-06 19:38:48	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x3c0d18…
06-06 06:55:25	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	173	83¢	$143	0xd64a97…
06-01 23:33:55	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xd9edd0…
06-01 23:26:19	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	82¢	$78	0x4cd91c…
06-01 23:11:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x8e19af…
06-01 21:48:31	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	82¢	$23	0x236e19…
06-01 21:48:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0x5e966a…
06-01 21:42:13	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xac13c5…
06-01 21:35:39	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xb682ed…
05-31 07:00:10	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	143	96¢	$138	0x07f9c3…
05-28 07:01:45	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?	No	BUY	138	90¢	$124	0x3b0d44…
05-28 04:11:50	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	SELL	124	100¢	$124	0xce5c2a…
05-27 06:42:43	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	32	90¢	$29	0xba0fa2…
05-27 06:42:43	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	92	90¢	$83	0x17d9ac…
05-27 05:46:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	112	100¢	$112	0x15be2d…
05-26 16:34:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	112	96¢	$108	0x4e2135…
05-26 14:49:27	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	119	91¢	$108	0x5f4751…
05-24 07:50:56	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	119	89¢	$106	0x9862c4…
05-24 07:50:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	65	100¢	$65	0x8ba6f7…
05-24 07:50:35	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	42	98¢	$41	0x947e80…
05-11 12:01:56	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x30f7f1…
05-07 21:29:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	65	98¢	$64	0xbc8445…
04-11 11:07:43	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	13	98¢	$13	0x95511a…
04-11 11:07:35	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	27	98¢	$27	0xb263b1…
04-01 11:07:09	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x0df17f…
04-01 06:23:19	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	53	96¢	$51	0x93dcae…
03-21 03:31:03	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x88e5f7…
03-19 03:57:39	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xe3c851…