Flaky-Senator — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$496

Unrealized P&L

+$10

Hit rate

73.6%

Resolved

195

Trades

689

lifetime

Volume

$2.81K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$16

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 09-01 11:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 81 days

Categories

Other

79% 35% +$518

Politics

21% 42% -$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes		-467	-$26	3¢	$-16	+$10	06-18 08:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?	44	$406	810	788	+22	No	+$26	07-30 11:13
Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	14	$300	354	354	+0	Yes	+$222	08-31 11:48
will usd fall to 1pt5m iranian rials by june 30	32	$200	289	289	+0	No	+$18	06-25 20:50
will usd fall to 1pt6m iranian rials by july 31 20260626150325082	10	$146	142	142	+0	No	+$6	07-08 19:30
Will USD be at least 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?	25	$136	182	182	+0	Yes	+$6	07-27 07:21
will usd reach 1pt8m iranian rials by july 31 20260626150325080	13	$121	177	177	+0	Yes	-$5	07-07 07:52
nothing ever happens khamenei	1	$98	339	0	+339	No	+$241	01-08 12:22
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30?	7	$92	143	143	+0	Yes	+$36	06-29 19:33
Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	10	$87	231	231	+0	No	-$1	08-31 19:41
Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31?	9	$70	213	213	+0	No	-$4	08-26 12:47
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	19	$63	137	137	+0	open	—	08-01 12:05
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on July 31?	7	$49	100	100	+0	No	+$7	07-26 18:04
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30?	6	$45	60	60	+0	No	+$1	06-29 16:20
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	9	$44	49	49	+0	Yes	+$16	05-28 14:43
iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	5	$41	53	53	+0	open	—	08-30 21:26
will usd reach 1pt9m iranian rials by june 30	14	$35	55	55	+0	No	-$1	06-15 04:18
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	10	$27	95	95	+0	No	-$9	07-10 06:07
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	2	$26	0	467	-467	open	—	06-18 08:05
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	9	$25	66	66	+0	open	—	08-07 09:44
will usd reach 2pt0m iranian rials by june 30	9	$24	55	55	+0	No	+$2	06-13 13:20
iran full airspace closure by august 15	2	$24	74	0	+74	No	-$24	08-01 12:05
will usd reach 1pt8m iranian rials by june 30	11	$23	156	156	+0	No	+$1	06-28 22:18
will usd fall to 1pt7m iranian rials by june 30	12	$21	841	40	+801	Yes	-$1	06-16 02:12
Will USD be at least 2.2M Iranian rials on September 30?	2	$20	16	16	+0	Yes	+$0	08-30 21:23
iran closes its airspace by june 15	7	$19	1,026	26	+1,000	Yes	+$5	06-08 04:34
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$18	16	16	+0	Yes	+$8	06-15 04:00
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 24, 2026?	2	$17	17	17	+0	Yes	+$15	08-25 06:31
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	5	$16	19	19	+0	No	+$6	06-08 04:22
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	4	$15	88	88	+0	No	-$7	08-30 23:03
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?	2	$15	16	16	+0	Yes	+$13	08-28 07:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-01 11:30:30	Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0x68fe2f…
09-01 11:29:40	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	SELL	8	7¢	$1	0x8a760e…
08-31 19:47:58	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x4a9d0c…
08-31 19:41:43	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	SELL	112	1¢	$1	0x550ba8…
08-31 14:55:36	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa570c2…
08-31 13:54:49	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	43	5¢	$2	0xdd8901…
08-31 11:49:10	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x0824e1…
08-31 11:48:09	Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	SELL	97	75¢	$73	0xfbc553…
08-31 11:44:30	Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0x46802a…
08-31 11:43:58	Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	SELL	111	70¢	$78	0xa8e83d…
08-31 11:42:09	Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x5dd9c2…
08-31 11:36:18	Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	SELL	21	83¢	$18	0x4323b5…
08-31 11:34:33	Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	SELL	102	80¢	$82	0x53719b…
08-31 04:37:06	Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x853d89…
08-31 04:36:54	Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x28af94…
08-31 04:36:36	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	SELL	54	10¢	$5	0x7835c7…
08-30 23:06:16	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x62c78e…
08-30 23:05:51	Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	13¢	$1	0xe7b79c…
08-30 23:04:10	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	BUY	34	12¢	$4	0x305872…
08-30 23:03:51	Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	SELL	88	5¢	$4	0xfeb562…
08-30 21:32:27	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xbf81d6…
08-30 21:31:03	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	3¢	$1	0xe9b749…
08-30 21:26:37	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xbbf9b9…
08-30 21:26:27	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0x8b884c…
08-30 21:24:42	Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	BUY	39	13¢	$5	0x0cf5c9…
08-30 21:24:27	Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xc4fb0c…
08-30 21:23:40	Will USD be at least 2.2M Iranian rials on September 30?	Yes	SELL	16	66¢	$10	0xd4c2d7…
08-30 21:23:06	Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xd9afbe…
08-30 20:34:18	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x8846b9…
08-30 20:25:15	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xacbe65…
08-30 17:14:51	Will USD be at least 2.2M Iranian rials on September 30?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xb16128…
08-30 17:13:01	Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x169372…
08-30 17:11:22	Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	88	11¢	$10	0x3fcb58…
08-30 17:11:00	Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	94	11¢	$10	0x521c5a…
08-29 14:48:49	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	SELL	57	50¢	$28	0xfee9b5…
08-29 07:21:42	Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0xe7df3f…
08-29 07:19:57	Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	92	5¢	$5	0x22b952…
08-28 07:34:19	Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	87¢	$14	0x363b98…
08-26 12:49:00	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	57	52¢	$30	0x631b84…
08-26 12:48:22	Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	34	18¢	$6	0x42ef64…
08-26 12:47:06	Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	SELL	213	15¢	$33	0xfdb634…
08-26 12:45:46	Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	SELL	57	5¢	$3	0xdc43fa…
08-26 10:37:52	Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	12¢	$2	0xecee86…
08-26 10:36:37	Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x29a817…
08-25 18:43:01	Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xe5f433…
08-25 18:42:37	Iran leadership change by September 30?	Yes	SELL	12	3¢	$0	0x7733e5…
08-25 18:41:45	Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x609774…
08-25 18:41:30	Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xb29b56…
08-25 18:41:19	Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x886045…
08-25 18:40:52	Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	52	10¢	$5	0xd328b8…
08-25 18:40:24	Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x19ad3e…
08-25 06:31:54	Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	93¢	$16	0x8990cb…
08-24 12:00:01	Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa580a4…
08-24 11:59:57	Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xabbcb5…
08-24 11:59:51	Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x04de88…
08-24 11:57:51	Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	51	10¢	$5	0x688ebd…
08-24 11:57:06	Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	68	7¢	$5	0x0f9435…
08-24 11:56:25	Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	SELL	13	33¢	$4	0x9e36ca…
08-22 19:13:33	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	SELL	62	22¢	$13	0xf3de68…
08-22 11:23:30	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	43	9¢	$4	0xc3aaa2…
08-22 11:22:49	Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xf9600c…
08-22 11:22:18	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	32	3¢	$1	0xa69034…
08-22 11:22:12	iran full airspace closure by december 31 20260727170429885	Yes	SELL	49	29¢	$14	0x74c242…
08-21 13:16:54	Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x0f989c…
08-20 23:09:58	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 24 2026 20260722225036948	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x10a0c2…
08-18 18:28:43	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 21 2026 20260722225036945	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x3ea05d…
08-18 18:25:55	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xe727da…
08-12 14:49:54	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 20 2026 20260722225036944	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xe0e3df…
08-12 14:49:48	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 19 2026 20260722225036943	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xd005c3…
08-12 14:49:43	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 18 2026 20260722225036942	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x6fdf41…
08-12 14:49:37	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 17 2026 20260722225036941	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x1eccf6…
08-12 14:49:34	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 16 2026 20260722225036940	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x19fa4f…
08-12 14:45:39	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 11 2026 20260722225036935	Yes	SELL	9	94¢	$9	0x2a2f89…
08-11 10:48:13	Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x1c639c…
08-09 08:38:16	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x360ad6…
08-09 08:36:43	Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	SELL	12	12¢	$1	0x9e5674…
08-09 08:35:09	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 15 2026 20260722225036939	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xe103a5…
08-09 08:35:04	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 14 2026 20260722225036938	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x803f7e…
08-09 08:34:49	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 13 2026 20260722225036937	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x5dc953…
08-09 08:32:42	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 4 2026 20260722225036928	Yes	SELL	7	94¢	$6	0x5b5221…
08-07 09:44:40	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 12 2026 20260722225036936	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x3589ac…
08-07 09:44:34	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 11 2026 20260722225036935	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xb4fe5e…
08-07 09:44:19	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	SELL	13	18¢	$2	0xded360…
08-07 09:43:27	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 10 2026 20260722225036934	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x3a76dd…
08-07 09:43:22	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 9 2026 20260722225036933	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x15e113…
08-07 09:43:16	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 8 2026 20260722225036932	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x9288c9…
08-05 09:11:44	Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xbbc94c…
08-05 09:06:26	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	SELL	29	2¢	$0	0xb72d9f…
08-05 09:06:09	will a european country take military action on iran by august 31 20260720005529606	Yes	SELL	87	2¢	$1	0x640aed…
08-05 09:05:21	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	22¢	$3	0xd421d6…
08-02 11:19:53	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x966103…
08-02 11:16:44	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x831ba4…
08-02 04:55:23	will iran target ukraine by august 31 2026 20260727234956917	Yes	SELL	114	4¢	$4	0x8733a1…
08-01 12:09:11	will a european country take military action on iran by august 31 20260720005529606	Yes	BUY	87	6¢	$5	0x667073…
08-01 12:07:29	will iran target ukraine by august 31 2026 20260727234956917	Yes	BUY	114	4¢	$5	0xd0166f…
08-01 12:05:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	42	24¢	$10	0x0a90b1…
08-01 12:05:00	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	BUY	29	31¢	$9	0xaf43c2…
08-01 06:58:14	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x36b576…
08-01 06:56:57	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 7 2026 20260722225036931	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x0e9aeb…
08-01 06:56:45	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 6 2026 20260722225036930	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x1dc34e…