Welcome-Washtub — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$153

Unrealized P&L

+$34

Hit rate

27.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$20.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$246

Open exposure

$12

1 position

First seen

2026-01-20

last 09-08 11:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Politics

48% 75% -$19

Crypto

28% 0% -$3

Sports

15% 0% -$14

Tech

7% 100% +$165

Other

2% 100% +$26

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes		-69	-$46	18¢	$-12	+$34	05-02 12:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	4	$5.8K	2,932	2,932	+0	No	-$3	05-12 09:30
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$2.9K	1,471	1,471	+0	No	-$1	05-07 07:51
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$2.8K	1,437	1,437	+0	open	—	07-10 07:16
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$2.8K	1,396	1,396	+0	open	—	05-20 09:18
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$2.7K	1,366	1,366	+0	open	—	07-04 08:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1	$1.4K	1,408	0	+1,408	No	+$4	04-30 13:01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	28	$1.4K	1,534	0	+1,534	Yes	+$153	07-10 15:00
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$146	74	74	+0	open	—	09-08 11:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	1	$71	72	0	+72	No	+$1	05-20 09:20
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?	2	$62	33	33	+0	Yes	-$2	04-18 12:38
will laura virginia fernndez delgado win the 2026 costa rican presidential election	1	$48	54	0	+54	Yes	+$6	01-23 12:02
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$48	28	28	+0	Yes	+$6	05-20 09:18
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	2	$47	33	33	+0	Yes	-$8	04-18 12:38
Kash Patel out by December 31?	1	$46	0	69	-69	open	—	05-02 12:22
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	2	$46	23	23	+0	No	+$0	04-30 13:00
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	2	$43	22	22	+0	No	+$1	04-28 08:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	1	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$0	05-11 13:27
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	1	$41	0	41	-41	No	$0	01-20 12:23
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?	2	$38	23	23	+0	Yes	-$4	04-28 08:29
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	4	$31	31	31	+0	No	-$24	04-10 13:39
deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	2	$29	17	17	+0	No	+$5	03-14 11:19
Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?	2	$26	16	16	+0	open	—	09-08 11:54
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$26	31	0	+31	Yes	+$5	04-28 08:31
houthi strike on israel by march 6 2026	1	$25	26	0	+26	No	+$1	03-06 05:38
iran leadership change by march 31	1	$23	24	0	+24	No	+$1	03-25 01:25
highest temperature in nyc on january 20 24 25f	1	$21	23	0	+23	Yes	+$2	01-20 12:24
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$21	22	0	+22	No	+$1	05-07 07:53
israel x hamas ceasefire cancelled by march 31 2026 824	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	03-25 01:24
will anish giri win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	1	$18	19	0	+19	No	+$1	04-02 11:37
Gemini 3.2 released by May 8, 2026?	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	05-06 01:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-08 11:54:24	Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	16	75¢	$12	0xe021b0…
09-08 11:54:16	Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	74	100¢	$73	0x550593…
07-10 15:00:50	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x77723e…
07-10 15:00:46	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	90¢	$300	0xf05151…
07-10 15:00:38	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	128	90¢	$116	0x2c490f…
07-10 14:29:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x169cef…
07-10 14:17:59	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x1427bb…
07-10 14:16:43	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xd93ba2…
07-10 14:16:16	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xb148c8…
07-10 13:48:53	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	90¢	$14	0x679aaf…
07-10 13:39:04	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	90¢	$69	0x49ee31…
07-10 13:37:23	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	90¢	$95	0x51f9e3…
07-10 13:35:38	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	90¢	$99	0xd09db3…
07-10 13:01:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	90¢	$24	0xd0ce8d…
07-10 12:44:02	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xedbcad…
07-10 12:30:16	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	90¢	$21	0xab586c…
07-10 12:26:50	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	90¢	$22	0x81c9e1…
07-10 12:23:19	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x5ee445…
07-10 12:14:53	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xca5bc4…
07-10 12:12:16	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	90¢	$22	0x84b4ce…
07-10 12:09:17	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xe2fb7d…
07-10 12:07:22	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	90¢	$24	0x1c6f2c…
07-10 11:58:49	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x8b5c56…
07-10 11:52:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0xcf2730…
07-10 11:24:41	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xd040bd…
07-10 11:18:14	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x4136e9…
07-10 10:57:16	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	353	90¢	$318	0x33b054…
07-10 10:48:31	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xd0b05f…
07-10 10:33:32	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x98cdee…
07-10 10:25:49	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	90¢	$23	0x1fabd9…
07-10 07:16:44	Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,437	99¢	$1,423	0x887944…
07-05 01:28:58	Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	74	99¢	$73	0x9f6ed5…
07-04 08:24:49	Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,437	99¢	$1,423	0x0fc0ff…
07-04 08:24:19	Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,366	99¢	$1,355	0x206825…
05-20 09:20:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	BUY	72	99¢	$71	0x64d6c9…
05-20 09:19:58	Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	16	89¢	$14	0xc415df…
05-20 09:19:39	Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,366	99¢	$1,356	0x84486c…
05-20 09:18:55	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,396	99¢	$1,385	0x9c3a41…
05-20 09:18:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	96¢	$27	0x62912b…
05-12 09:31:39	Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,396	99¢	$1,388	0x98aa4a…
05-12 09:30:34	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	SELL	1,424	100¢	$1,419	0x45f1a0…
05-11 13:27:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0xdd5037…
05-07 07:53:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	22	95¢	$21	0x796942…
05-07 07:52:02	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	1,424	100¢	$1,420	0xba3679…
05-07 07:51:34	Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1,471	100¢	$1,466	0x8dd4f0…
05-06 01:32:28	Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1,471	100¢	$1,467	0x502e18…
05-06 01:32:02	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	75¢	$21	0xe66d84…
05-06 01:31:08	Gemini 3.2 released by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xdcfbfa…
05-06 01:30:52	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	SELL	1,508	100¢	$1,500	0x9de285…
05-02 12:23:02	Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Cadillac Championship?	Yes	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x7c9460…
05-02 12:22:44	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	1,508	100¢	$1,502	0x8c60a1…
05-02 12:22:20	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	69	67¢	$46	0x81c425…
04-30 13:01:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,408	100¢	$1,404	0xe15717…
04-30 13:00:16	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0xb8af30…
04-28 08:31:50	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	83¢	$26	0xafc2fd…
04-28 08:31:20	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0xfe7c23…
04-28 08:30:04	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x6917dd…
04-28 08:29:52	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?	Yes	SELL	23	72¢	$17	0x389b9b…
04-18 12:40:22	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	22	94¢	$21	0x7875fb…
04-18 12:39:12	Kash Patel out by April 30?	No	BUY	21	81¢	$17	0x88fdce…
04-18 12:38:44	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	33	59¢	$19	0xdfac99…
04-18 12:38:36	Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	33	90¢	$30	0x6762bb…
04-10 13:39:53	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	Yes	SELL	18	8¢	$1	0x100ea9…
04-08 13:42:17	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	Yes	BUY	18	82¢	$15	0xe04293…
04-08 13:42:01	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	SELL	13	18¢	$2	0xe98edb…
04-02 11:39:17	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x68d80a…
04-02 11:38:51	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season?	Yes	BUY	23	92¢	$21	0x60ec28…
04-02 11:37:21	will anish giri win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	No	BUY	19	95¢	$18	0x9fadde…
03-25 01:25:15	will alphabet be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	Yes	BUY	18	93¢	$17	0x368160…
03-25 01:25:07	iran leadership change by march 31	No	BUY	24	94¢	$23	0x19f1b2…
03-25 01:24:41	israel x hamas ceasefire cancelled by march 31 2026 824	No	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0x40c276…
03-14 11:20:23	will sinners win best film editing at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	18	95¢	$17	0xc82973…
03-14 11:20:11	will delroy lindo win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x15dda4…
03-14 11:19:27	deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x5238a5…
03-06 05:38:57	houthi strike on israel by march 6 2026	No	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x3ffefe…
03-06 05:38:29	deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	No	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0xec44a5…
02-28 06:01:13	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	No	BUY	18	80¢	$14	0x5f3acb…
02-24 12:32:44	will there be at least 1050 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	17	77¢	$13	0x5b88f9…
02-18 10:38:58	will israel strike gaza on february 18 2026	No	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0x5b8a04…
02-18 10:38:02	spx opens up or down on february 18 2026	Up	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x835a3a…
02-04 03:33:32	Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	33	96¢	$32	0xbb00de…
02-04 03:33:16	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	33	82¢	$27	0x7cfa62…
01-23 12:02:46	will laura virginia fernndez delgado win the 2026 costa rican presidential election	Yes	BUY	54	89¢	$48	0xddf769…
01-20 12:24:44	highest temperature in nyc on january 20 24 25f	Yes	BUY	23	91¢	$21	0x297303…
01-20 12:23:00	Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x4b01c8…