Burdensome-Guarantee — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$33

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

98.9%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

138 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$291

$1.90K lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 17:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Other

44% 98% +$3

Politics

36% 91% +$34

Crypto

12% 100% +$1

Tech

6% 100% +$0

Sports

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+3	$2	67¢	$2	$0	10-27 18:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$155	84	84	+0	No	+$5	10-28 04:01
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	6	$129	80	51	+30	No	+$1	08-31 20:04
LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	2	$108	54	54	+0	Yes	+$0	09-10 10:56
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$107	54	54	+0	No	+$0	09-07 13:03
Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	4	$105	53	53	+0	Yes	+$0	08-19 12:59
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$101	52	52	+0	No	+$0	08-27 17:45
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	2	$93	47	47	+0	No	+$0	10-08 05:39
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	2	$90	46	46	+0	Yes	+$0	10-13 13:21
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	1	$86	88	0	+88	Yes	+$2	10-29 17:37
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	10-03 04:41
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	1	$55	55	0	+55	No	+$0	09-21 17:55
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$55	61	61	+0	Yes	+$27	10-25 22:52
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$54	55	0	+55	No	+$0	09-14 16:52
will gpt 6 be released by october 31 2026	1	$54	54	0	+54	Yes	+$0	09-04 12:16
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$1	08-21 02:54
will scotland reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120745	1	$46	46	0	+46	No	+$0	06-27 08:12
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$0	07-30 01:46
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$32	32	0	+32	Yes	+$0	05-30 14:19
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	2	$29	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	09-30 17:25
will elon musks net worth be at least 710b on march 31	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	03-31 10:17
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	1	$26	26	0	+26	No	+$0	06-29 16:07
will ethereum dip to 1600 in february 2026	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	02-28 21:24
Will Poland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	05-14 01:15
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	09-30 19:54
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?	1	$19	19	0	+19	No	+$0	06-29 08:38
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	2	$18	9	9	+0	No	+$0	10-14 01:22
will chainlink hit 23 in january	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	01-24 01:58
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April?	1	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	04-28 08:46
will solana reach 200 in september 2026	2	$14	7	7	+0	No	+$0	09-29 08:25
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$13	13	0	+13	Yes	+$0	05-26 06:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:37:05	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	88	98¢	$86	0xc4c47e…
10-28 04:01:23	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	84	96¢	$80	0x0c09a4…
10-27 21:55:56	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	84	90¢	$75	0xcffda4…
10-27 18:45:27	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x033dad…
10-27 18:17:27	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xeb5e35…
10-25 22:53:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	17	6¢	$1	0x97958a…
10-25 22:53:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	25	6¢	$2	0x9db0cb…
10-25 22:52:08	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	61	67¢	$41	0x5ea621…
10-23 01:52:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	42	0¢	$0	0x8bb138…
10-17 21:22:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	61	23¢	$14	0x5b4e79…
10-14 01:22:50	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xc07428…
10-13 13:21:32	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	97¢	$45	0x8eb450…
10-13 12:58:37	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	97¢	$45	0x6fcee7…
10-08 05:39:40	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	SELL	47	100¢	$46	0xaa96a9…
10-06 07:10:28	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	47	100¢	$46	0xaf87c0…
10-03 13:21:17	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x7e1f8f…
10-03 04:41:23	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xbdbbeb…
09-30 19:54:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf66216…
09-30 17:57:09	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x52d69b…
09-30 17:25:47	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x4f06b7…
09-30 12:58:14	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x9dd08e…
09-29 08:25:38	will solana reach 200 in september 2026	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xb6ee3c…
09-29 01:58:50	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x7d3fac…
09-27 11:56:44	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x25a8c7…
09-25 12:30:12	will solana reach 200 in september 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x8f2a88…
09-23 00:48:22	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xbfe443…
09-21 17:55:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x90bb5f…
09-14 16:52:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$54	0x77e719…
09-10 10:56:09	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	54	100¢	$54	0xd371d5…
09-09 18:30:10	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	54	99¢	$54	0x73d243…
09-07 13:03:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	54	100¢	$54	0xc72ac7…
09-05 05:01:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	54	99¢	$53	0x293d7d…
09-04 12:16:07	will gpt 6 be released by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0x279e32…
08-31 20:04:12	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb92e9a…
08-31 20:03:09	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$23	0x37c23a…
08-31 20:01:28	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x735f53…
08-31 19:25:43	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xb7ca45…
08-31 19:13:42	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0x06af61…
08-30 22:49:09	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xf841e3…
08-30 20:26:09	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8d0a66…
08-27 17:45:58	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	52	97¢	$50	0xaa8208…
08-26 20:12:24	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in August?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcf8734…
08-25 00:59:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x97b5ad…
08-21 08:44:51	will ethereum dip to 1200 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x87699b…
08-21 02:54:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	52	99¢	$52	0xb13ddf…
08-20 11:06:21	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0x1b4aba…
08-19 12:59:10	Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x1834e4…
08-19 12:24:40	Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x76284c…
08-19 12:24:39	Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x73aff1…
08-05 14:48:24	Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x7ad094…
07-30 01:46:21	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0x26b878…
07-27 11:17:16	will ethereum dip to 1400 in july 2026 711 181	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7c9b70…
07-26 07:23:28	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x00e640…
07-25 19:42:52	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3b5a2b…
07-25 16:08:06	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x242e67…
07-23 18:22:28	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in july 2026 821	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x83970c…
07-23 12:11:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x95bae6…
07-23 04:17:01	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x3c12e2…
07-23 02:14:42	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1d68b4…
06-29 16:07:22	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x00cffb…
06-29 08:38:59	Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x82332c…
06-28 05:24:20	will xauusd reach 4600 in june 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xc3225b…
06-27 08:12:16	will scotland reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120745	No	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0x95d6ea…
06-27 04:43:04	Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc6278a…
05-30 14:19:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x9038a7…
05-26 06:38:43	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xc528e4…
05-22 22:51:50	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x55ea0c…
05-20 23:31:21	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x7af35f…
05-20 09:37:00	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1ed2ba…
05-14 01:15:20	Will Poland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x307c37…
05-12 05:39:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xab166f…
05-11 19:05:24	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x3791bc…
05-09 10:54:31	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x7160db…
05-08 22:47:54	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf8c94a…
05-08 15:23:03	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7b6972…
05-08 08:09:09	Will Solana dip to $20 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb9280a…
05-07 08:35:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdb6a20…
05-07 06:19:38	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $288 in May?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x27a135…
05-05 22:24:04	Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcd446d…
05-05 16:43:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x2c4353…
04-28 08:46:54	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x0bfc6e…
04-21 22:55:22	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x87c550…
04-21 20:23:50	Will BNB dip to $400 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xddce68…
04-20 14:21:30	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xcc83b4…
04-20 04:31:30	Will BNB reach $1,000 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x8d39d4…
04-19 07:36:18	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9138f7…
04-18 19:13:28	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0b9561…
04-18 03:34:48	Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x5b1894…
04-17 19:17:00	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $310 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x6bcbcf…
04-16 21:53:30	Will BNB dip to $100 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xae35cf…
04-15 12:38:56	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe49397…
04-14 08:23:25	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x4238ba…
04-14 01:45:55	Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xe4d2bc…
04-05 06:43:51	Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4bffc9…
03-31 10:17:49	will elon musks net worth be at least 710b on march 31	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xd835db…
03-29 08:34:26	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9c7e9d…
03-27 01:59:49	tsla above 430 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x68e24c…
03-24 07:07:29	will dogecoin dip to 0pt05 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd87f9d…
03-23 12:54:31	amzn above 260 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3b1373…
03-21 22:14:17	will hyperliquid dip to 12 in march	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2771b4…