Weekly-Jaw — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

88.6%

Resolved

109

Trades

130

lifetime

Volume

$1.12K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$39

1 position

First seen

2026-01-15

last 10-29 17:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 43 days

Categories

Other

49% 94% +$0

Politics

35% 89% -$12

Crypto

14% 100% +$0

Tech

2% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No		+39	$38	99¢	$39	+$1	10-29 17:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	2	$100	50	50	+0	No	+$0	08-17 13:51
LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	2	$93	47	47	+0	Yes	+$0	09-10 01:21
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$88	46	46	+0	No	-$2	08-25 13:35
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	09-07 08:18
Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	1	$53	53	0	+53	No	+$0	10-09 08:04
Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	1	$52	52	0	+52	Yes	+$0	08-05 14:59
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$47	47	0	+47	No	+$0	08-22 00:14
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $310 in August?	1	$44	44	0	+44	No	+$0	08-28 15:11
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$1	10-05 07:56
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	1	$38	39	0	+39	open	—	10-29 17:44
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	1	$32	33	0	+33	Yes	+$1	10-02 03:39
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$32	39	0	+39	Yes	-$32	10-15 07:11
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	1	$32	32	0	+32	No	+$0	10-01 02:09
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	2	$30	50	50	+0	open	—	10-17 16:19
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	1	$28	28	0	+28	No	+$0	09-16 03:18
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	1	$27	27	0	+27	No	+$0	09-28 17:18
Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	1	$27	27	0	+27	Yes	+$0	09-22 12:22
will openais valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	06-30 12:11
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$24	25	0	+25	Yes	+$0	08-18 18:54
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	07-30 22:14
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	1	$15	16	0	+16	No	+$0	03-31 07:18
aapl above 220 on february 27 2026	1	$12	12	0	+12	Yes	+$0	02-25 09:29
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	1	$11	11	0	+11	No	+$0	05-30 20:38
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	2	$9	6	6	+0	No	+$0	09-16 05:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	3	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	05-18 02:27
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	05-07 21:39
will ethereum dip to 1600 in july 2026 from july 6	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	07-31 22:21
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	09-22 11:22
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	06-05 01:48
aapl above 220 on january 30 2026	1	$4	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	01-15 03:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 17:44:49	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	39	97¢	$38	0x746a10…
10-20 22:09:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xf4c0ac…
10-20 21:57:18	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0x296dea…
10-17 16:19:14	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0x6d4a7a…
10-15 07:11:58	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	39	83¢	$32	0xec586f…
10-12 00:41:27	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x3d8979…
10-09 08:04:49	Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0xb9f4a1…
10-05 07:56:35	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xbb4e89…
10-02 03:39:57	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	33	98¢	$32	0xd86633…
10-01 02:09:38	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x80a6e5…
09-28 17:18:09	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x919d29…
09-22 12:22:03	Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x1a8426…
09-22 11:22:39	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3a65e8…
09-16 05:47:33	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	SELL	6	75¢	$4	0xb62fb1…
09-16 03:18:16	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xa123c4…
09-16 00:29:33	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x6df8fe…
09-10 01:21:43	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	47	99¢	$46	0x32e831…
09-10 00:13:21	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	47	99¢	$46	0xdd9bb0…
09-07 08:18:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x7da15a…
09-04 14:15:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	29	98¢	$28	0x581f39…
09-03 20:38:48	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0xd74dfc…
08-28 15:11:03	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $310 in August?	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xea7d9d…
08-27 04:05:27	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on August 28?	Yes	BUY	24	0¢	$0	0xf38d3c…
08-27 04:05:09	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on August 28?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x987e69…
08-27 03:30:06	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on August 28?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xb59a37…
08-27 03:26:24	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on August 28?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xc40b1e…
08-27 00:43:01	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on August 28?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x38f881…
08-25 13:35:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	46	93¢	$43	0x78ba57…
08-25 04:00:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	46	97¢	$45	0xcaf076…
08-24 07:33:01	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xff8403…
08-22 00:14:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0x3b1f58…
08-19 01:18:27	will nvda dip to 160 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x29f0a3…
08-18 18:54:22	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	25	99¢	$24	0xbacc93…
08-17 14:17:34	will wti reach 130 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x11eae6…
08-17 13:51:36	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x62bf16…
08-14 14:05:22	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	0¢	$0	0x0baba4…
08-14 04:59:46	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$0	0x2806f5…
08-09 22:40:31	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x671d9a…
08-06 23:44:35	will ethereum reach 3000 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1dd576…
08-05 14:59:27	Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	BUY	52	99¢	$52	0x67523b…
07-31 22:21:15	will ethereum dip to 1600 in july 2026 from july 6	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0f7244…
07-30 22:14:48	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xcdd22a…
07-30 15:38:30	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2e3bfa…
07-30 02:32:06	will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7e1b09…
07-27 19:02:39	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1e623d…
07-26 13:12:42	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8b0a33…
07-26 09:12:43	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026 367	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x73a4ee…
07-24 05:42:12	will bitcoin reach 77pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3d69f6…
07-23 18:48:57	will bitcoin dip to 50k in july 2026 812	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb334ea…
07-23 07:46:40	will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5a1da2…
07-21 18:59:57	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x040f1e…
07-17 16:22:27	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x6c1e0f…
07-17 14:20:37	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x6e26a1…
06-30 12:11:23	will openais valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x34771c…
06-28 05:37:14	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x858411…
06-27 13:43:44	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x494fb0…
06-27 08:38:34	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x2f0d34…
06-05 01:48:22	Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x35bb09…
05-30 20:38:43	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xa30f7e…
05-18 02:27:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa27d5b…
05-13 09:21:33	Will Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbb356e…
05-09 08:21:19	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf95b17…
05-08 20:14:34	Will Solana dip to $40 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xd15ca4…
05-07 21:39:37	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4f9639…
05-07 11:09:02	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x01b242…
05-07 08:41:16	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7cd704…
05-06 08:39:12	Will Solana dip to $20 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x10a949…
05-05 19:22:40	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xfa3e66…
05-05 19:16:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x3fe929…
05-05 17:35:56	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5bfc05…
05-05 14:59:38	Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9c79e6…
05-05 13:05:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x40fc3a…
05-05 12:02:42	Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa0d9dc…
04-28 21:06:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc34798…
04-22 03:05:04	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xac26aa…
04-21 12:14:28	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xe19c2c…
04-20 11:09:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x690505…
04-20 01:12:42	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x8cbe1b…
04-19 06:19:20	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x3ceaba…
04-18 15:17:52	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$2	0xd36cc0…
04-17 13:50:22	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1e8b0a…
04-17 05:39:42	Will BNB dip to $200 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xaa6153…
04-14 23:53:40	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd0dbaf…
04-14 13:51:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x1e4e1a…
04-13 21:07:15	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$3	0xdfcd91…
04-05 19:36:43	Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xb12bf9…
03-31 07:18:53	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$15	0x4ede49…
03-29 17:02:52	will ethereum reach 3600 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x07d998…
03-28 01:29:21	will ethereum reach 3600 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5f2477…
03-26 14:21:19	will dogecoin reach 0pt2 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf7a5f8…
03-25 16:00:35	googl above 260 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6b1295…
03-22 06:18:39	nflx above 140 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7e4786…
03-21 03:32:01	will microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 889	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x59f00a…
03-19 19:11:23	will solana reach 150 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd13013…
03-19 01:01:21	will xrp dip to 0pt4 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcde2a2…
03-17 22:35:03	will amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 453	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x68776f…
03-16 13:48:15	will amazon be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa68eae…
03-13 21:43:33	will the ecb announce a 50 bps decrease at the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbc35a7…
03-13 06:05:47	will oracle be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x691690…
03-11 17:01:01	bank of england decreases interest rates by 50 bps after march 2026 meeting 876	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x228830…