Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$34

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

60.9%

Resolved

170

Trades

190

lifetime

Volume

$250

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

5 positions

First seen

2026-07-24

last 11-07 07:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 71 days

Categories

Other

80% 63% +$29

Politics

12% 53% -$2

Tech

8% 75% +$6

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 12, 2026?	Yes	+5	$1	35¢	$2	+$1	11-06 13:21
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	+2	$1	100¢	$2	+$1	11-05 18:05
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	+3	$1	43¢	$1	+$0	11-06 21:49
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	+2	$1	46¢	$1	$0	11-03 16:55
Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	No	+3	$1	28¢	$1	$0	11-07 07:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	2	$5	5	5	+0	Yes	+$1	08-23 06:38
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?	2	$5	5	5	+0	Yes	+$1	08-23 06:38
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in August?	2	$4	3	3	+0	No	+$0	08-23 06:39
Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?	2	$4	5	5	+0	Yes	+$0	08-23 06:39
Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August?	2	$4	3	3	+0	No	$0	08-23 06:39
Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August?	2	$4	6	6	+0	No	$0	08-23 06:40
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	2	$4	3	3	+0	Yes	$0	08-23 06:39
will wti reach 95 in august 2026	2	$4	8	8	+0	No	$0	08-23 06:39
will trump say transgender during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255816	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	07-24 14:15
Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	-$2	07-29 03:33
spy closes above 775 on august 13 2026	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	-$2	08-13 10:47
another pandemic before gta vi	1	$2	4	0	+4	cancelled	+$0	07-28 04:08
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	1	$2	8	0	+8	Yes	-$2	08-05 00:29
will xagusd reach 63 by september 28 2026	2	$2	4	0	+4	No	$0	09-30 00:19
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	2	$2	5	0	+5	No	+$2	11-06 03:46
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	1	$2	6	0	+6	Yes	+$4	08-02 21:52
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?	1	$2	4	0	+4	No	+$2	08-16 05:08
Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	1	$2	4	0	+4	No	+$2	08-06 00:32
wynn quarterly earnings nongaap eps 08 04 2026 1	1	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	-$2	08-04 00:28
will googl dip to 345 by august 10 2026	1	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	+$2	08-10 05:25
Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?	1	$2	6	0	+6	Yes	+$4	08-07 00:36
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	1	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	+$2	08-12 10:04
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	08-02 04:49
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	1	$2	5	0	+5	No	-$2	08-06 08:33
will googl dip to 345 by august 3 2026	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	08-03 08:26
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	1	$2	3	0	+3	No	-$2	08-04 16:29
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	1	$2	10	0	+10	No	-$2	08-16 14:39
will mu dip to 840 by august 10 2026	1	$2	4	0	+4	No	+$2	08-12 02:03
will trump say stock market during remarks in new york 20260811183234690	1	$2	7	0	+7	Yes	-$2	08-14 03:00
will trump say kamala during remarks in new york 20260811183234697	1	$2	3	0	+3	Yes	-$2	08-13 02:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 07:32:22	Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xa2cdbb…
11-06 21:49:46	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xe6f37e…
11-06 13:21:25	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x20051d…
11-06 03:46:51	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x56caeb…
11-06 03:46:00	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xbf388e…
11-05 18:05:54	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x18e1cc…
11-05 09:54:10	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xf77ef2…
11-05 01:37:18	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xa3e116…
11-04 09:16:45	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x6a1d28…
11-04 01:14:33	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xae749c…
11-03 16:55:15	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x8e0c82…
11-03 08:46:57	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xefb4e1…
11-03 00:46:39	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xc3b9e8…
11-02 16:46:10	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x492b86…
11-02 08:45:46	CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 89% to 90.5%?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x071806…
11-02 00:44:55	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x6e39dd…
11-01 15:30:28	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x16559f…
10-31 17:13:55	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x200054…
10-30 20:27:45	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x1e573a…
10-30 11:05:03	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x524453…
10-30 01:25:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x4990c8…
10-29 03:24:05	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x78301e…
10-28 19:18:28	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x8dce57…
10-27 23:15:27	Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x6ce805…
10-27 14:11:21	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xa89a69…
10-25 18:08:20	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xb66bb6…
10-25 10:07:17	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x705af2…
10-25 02:06:32	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 28?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x8d8263…
10-24 14:18:29	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.0% in September?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x7d6289…
10-24 05:53:39	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x9b3742…
10-23 20:56:06	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x4f5e41…
10-23 12:54:54	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xe6c2a9…
10-23 04:52:06	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x932e3d…
10-22 20:32:44	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x6cd0da…
10-22 12:26:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xcae086…
10-22 04:20:11	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xadbf55…
10-21 20:14:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xd7cd6a…
10-21 11:58:54	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x729edf…
10-21 03:58:39	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xd79729…
10-20 07:50:01	Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q3 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 6% to 8%?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xa4755c…
10-19 23:49:53	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xc9eb01…
10-19 15:46:44	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc5acc0…
10-19 07:42:39	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $55 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xa31d8b…
10-18 23:42:26	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xc108ac…
10-18 15:42:14	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x5a32bc…
10-18 07:41:47	Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Q3 comparable sales growth 6% to 8%?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x5c9491…
10-17 23:28:35	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x4677c8…
10-17 23:28:00	Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 32% to 34%?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xfc21bc…
10-17 15:24:56	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xd48ee7…
10-17 06:22:34	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xb54279…
10-16 21:50:23	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x60b8d5…
10-16 12:30:37	spy up or down on october 16 2026	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x022944…
10-16 12:21:16	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x8cbbfb…
10-16 03:45:13	spx up or down on october 16 2026	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x9d372b…
10-15 18:22:20	Will Meta (META) close at $730-$740 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xe7289a…
10-15 09:23:19	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15?	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x2bc7b8…
10-15 01:20:43	will wti dip to 90 by october 12 2026 from october 12	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x1eacf9…
10-15 01:20:37	will the tesla roadster fly for 1s	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x802b09…
10-14 17:20:22	will coin dip to 162 50 by october 12 2026	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x97371d…
10-14 09:18:46	spy up or down on october 14 2026	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xd6a8ad…
10-14 01:15:24	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x58ed30…
10-13 05:13:12	will mu reach 1020 by october 12 2026	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x6390ae…
10-12 21:12:56	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $62 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xb889c0…
10-12 13:12:38	Israel military action against Lebanon on October 17?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xa084e6…
10-11 03:51:54	Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xc57551…
10-10 19:05:40	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xe7589d…
10-10 04:42:45	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x625b40…
10-10 04:16:43	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xc153dd…
10-09 19:47:37	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xeb6457…
10-09 11:45:48	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x7e22a7…
10-09 03:45:12	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xde82ae…
10-08 19:45:06	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x5e9c2d…
10-08 11:31:05	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x36deaf…
10-08 03:30:32	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x4d1d21…
10-07 19:26:10	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xa0a80e…
10-07 11:25:49	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x9d5c08…
10-07 02:41:15	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7?	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x56c3dd…
10-06 18:41:08	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x439203…
10-06 10:40:55	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xd0e3f1…
10-06 02:39:28	Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x927de9…
10-03 16:14:17	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x5f791c…
10-03 05:32:24	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x28ac02…
10-02 21:16:00	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x9ed8b1…
10-01 23:32:41	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xa37533…
10-01 02:38:03	Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xbccd2b…
10-01 02:28:41	Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in September?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xbbb323…
09-30 17:45:03	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xc226ae…
09-30 09:37:05	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x7d0373…
09-30 09:36:14	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x6d179f…
09-30 00:19:48	will xagusd reach 63 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf4ef70…
09-30 00:18:14	will xagusd reach 63 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xde60b7…
09-26 12:47:44	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x369da5…
09-26 04:47:38	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x74f4b9…
09-23 20:10:46	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x859e32…
09-23 12:10:41	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x969864…
09-23 04:10:29	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x28b9d0…
09-22 20:10:01	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in July 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x617dc7…
09-22 12:07:57	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x72cb91…
09-20 22:41:59	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $132.50 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x6502c0…
09-20 14:40:49	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x922c3d…