Reasonable-Polarisation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

102

lifetime

Volume

$1.90K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$23

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 06-29 21:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

44% — —

Other

24% 100% +$0

Politics

23% 100% +$3

Tech

9% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	No		+18	$18	100¢	$18	+$0	06-29 02:55
Will Silver (SI) settle over $140 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No		+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	06-06 00:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	1	$178	178	+178	open	—	06-02 16:41
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?	2	$165	165	+165	open	—	06-27 15:01
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	1	$162	165	+165	open	—	05-26 18:27
Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$161	162	+162	open	—	05-21 04:24
gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	1	$152	153	+153	open	—	06-25 22:40
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	1	$111	112	+112	open	—	05-30 20:24
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$88	95	+95	open	—	05-16 15:31
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	1	$87	88	+88	open	—	05-12 10:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	1	$84	87	+87	No	+$3	05-09 16:44
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?	1	$66	67	+67	open	—	05-30 03:31
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?	2	$56	59	+59	open	—	04-14 15:06
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	1	$47	47	+47	open	—	04-23 16:25
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	1	$46	49	+49	open	—	04-27 16:24
will ethena dip to 0pt08 in march	1	$40	40	+40	open	—	04-01 02:25
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1	$39	47	+47	open	—	04-21 07:28
will googl reach 390 in june 2026	1	$30	30	+30	open	—	06-28 10:54
will spy dip to 690 in june 2026	1	$27	27	+27	open	—	06-29 01:37
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	1	$18	18	+18	open	—	06-29 02:55
will wti reach 90 in june 2026 from june 16	1	$18	18	+18	open	—	06-29 21:45
si above 70 jan 2026	1	$13	14	+14	open	—	01-24 05:00
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 781	1	$13	13	+13	open	—	02-20 14:38
meta above 820 on february 27 2026	1	$12	12	+12	open	—	02-24 03:00
will bitcoin dip to 45k in january 2026	1	$11	12	+12	open	—	01-07 02:22
will ethereum reach 3400 in february 2026	1	$8	8	+8	open	—	02-20 14:43
will bnb dip to 400 in january	1	$8	8	+8	open	—	01-07 16:55
will the bank of brazil increase the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	2	$7	7	+7	open	—	03-10 06:12
will hyperliquid hit 42 in january	1	$7	7	+7	open	—	01-10 02:37
si hit 25 low jan 2026 271 644 727	1	$6	7	+7	open	—	01-19 22:07
will chainlink dip to 6 in january	1	$6	6	+6	open	—	01-08 23:29
will hyperliquid hit 46 in january	1	$6	6	+6	open	—	01-13 10:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-29 21:45:25	will wti reach 90 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x12aa71…
06-29 02:55:49	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xbd0214…
06-29 01:37:59	will spy dip to 690 in june 2026	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xfb1b0e…
06-28 10:54:46	will googl reach 390 in june 2026	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xb64f2a…
06-27 15:01:52	Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	151	100¢	$151	0x3e14dd…
06-27 02:43:41	Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xca683a…
06-25 22:40:56	gpt 5pt6 released by june 26 2026	No	BUY	153	99¢	$152	0xac01ca…
06-06 22:46:30	will anthropics valuation hit low 750b by june 30	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xf7f32e…
06-06 00:55:37	Will Silver (SI) settle over $140 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x254c5f…
06-02 16:41:33	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?	No	BUY	178	100¢	$178	0x62a97c…
05-30 21:19:08	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8c774f…
05-30 20:24:52	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	No	BUY	112	100¢	$111	0x0db865…
05-30 03:31:02	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?	No	BUY	67	100¢	$66	0x5441de…
05-26 18:27:25	Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	165	99¢	$162	0xfb9123…
05-21 04:24:18	Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	162	99¢	$161	0xcd8ea7…
05-16 15:31:47	Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	92¢	$88	0x6eddb3…
05-12 10:58:24	Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	88	99¢	$87	0x0ddb29…
05-09 16:44:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	87	97¢	$84	0xc41a13…
05-07 05:50:54	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $288 in May?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x1c7fb8…
05-06 09:46:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0acb4c…
04-29 02:10:54	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1e8fe4…
04-29 00:55:58	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x25dc3a…
04-27 16:24:26	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	49	95¢	$46	0x103e9d…
04-26 08:44:54	Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $140 end of April?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcb5544…
04-23 16:25:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	No	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0x14b118…
04-21 07:28:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	47	83¢	$39	0x9b3329…
04-20 02:53:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x819e3a…
04-17 15:45:26	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x089c33…
04-17 08:06:02	Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x391d9f…
04-16 04:31:40	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd526a6…
04-15 12:09:28	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x97350a…
04-14 23:06:32	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of April?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x6ac17d…
04-14 15:06:59	Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe016e0…
04-14 02:32:55	Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	57	95¢	$54	0x23e931…
04-14 01:03:47	Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xddd38e…
04-12 21:59:27	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe4e60f…
04-12 01:14:53	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x0b8961…
04-11 19:40:27	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x56dfc4…
04-11 13:38:49	Will BNB reach $900 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x191b03…
04-11 02:22:59	Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x0bacce…
04-07 07:25:37	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x89f70e…
04-07 06:28:01	will the bank of korea increase the base rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x14b586…
04-07 04:25:51	Will Solana dip to $30 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x6590e8…
04-06 12:34:21	will the bank of korea make no change to the base rate after the april meeting	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x43ca44…
04-06 06:54:45	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x601784…
04-05 20:44:01	will the bank of new zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the april decision	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9690c4…
04-05 04:49:49	Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x82df50…
04-01 02:25:35	will ethena dip to 0pt08 in march	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xd9f6d7…
03-30 19:55:35	will xrp dip to 0pt8 in march 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9e223a…
03-30 01:37:52	will openai have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x06da56…
03-27 21:37:09	will chainlink reach 14 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa079e4…
03-27 18:52:31	will ethena reach 0pt16 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8317a2…
03-26 17:49:39	will solana reach 120 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x31d2e0…
03-26 08:03:23	tsla above 440 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd91645…
03-25 12:38:11	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x380759…
03-25 06:32:47	will xai have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc4717b…
03-24 20:18:53	will xrp reach 2pt6 in march 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe97ffc…
03-24 16:06:57	will ethereum reach 3800 in march 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x8a35c7…
03-24 15:29:33	will hyperliquid dip to 24 in march	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0d0fc6…
03-24 09:20:43	will xrp reach 3pt2 in march 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xdb3493…
03-23 23:04:19	will ethena dip to 0 in march	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc72c24…
03-23 18:23:35	nvda above 240 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3e1cdc…
03-23 10:31:43	will ethereum dip to 600 in march 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9b6d3c…
03-23 05:21:15	will deepseek have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x2a5804…
03-23 01:44:11	will alibaba have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 712	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xb14812…
03-22 20:30:15	will amazon be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xd68873…
03-22 19:37:31	will chainlink dip to 4 in march	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf8fa6f…
03-21 21:37:35	googl above 350 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xdde801…
03-12 04:09:21	will moonshot have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x6f7c01…
03-12 03:27:11	will moonshot have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x0eafe5…
03-11 12:26:21	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x84d13b…
03-10 20:13:29	googl above 360 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0x3dc75e…
03-10 06:12:25	will the bank of brazil increase the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x99442b…
03-10 02:16:35	will ethereum reach 3400 in march 2026	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x2bcc4a…
03-09 09:02:31	will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x06c3bd…
03-08 20:33:23	will the bank of brazil increase the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x72fe06…
03-08 11:10:05	nvda above 240 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x79824c…
03-08 09:18:35	bank of england increases interest rates after march 2026 meeting 393	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x4a5f3e…
03-07 16:06:23	googl above 360 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x58eeda…
03-04 08:27:31	bank of england decreases interest rates by 50 bps after march 2026 meeting 876	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf52e5b…
02-25 06:04:38	pltr above 164 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd810b9…
02-24 09:48:14	will silver si hit high 160 by end of february 597 366 984 937	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3d14ba…
02-24 09:36:04	will gold gc hit high 6600 by end of february 828 163 164 179 126 514	No	BUY	5	100¢	$4	0x5942e9…
02-24 03:00:24	meta above 820 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x02b735…
02-21 23:46:42	will nvidia be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xba967b…
02-21 22:53:50	tsla above 480 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6f0565…
02-21 19:04:02	nflx above 100 on february 27 2026	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xbeef3b…
02-20 14:43:06	will ethereum reach 3400 in february 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6678e9…
02-20 14:38:36	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 781	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xf14a3c…
02-02 17:10:50	will saudi aramco be the third largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0xb95eae…
01-24 05:00:38	si above 70 jan 2026	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$13	0x1b1e87…
01-22 12:08:06	si hit 40 low jan 2026 159 697 786	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xd50729…
01-21 04:19:02	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 756	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4cb2c3…
01-19 22:07:00	si hit 25 low jan 2026 271 644 727	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0x9f1b56…
01-17 00:03:32	googl above 260 on january 30 2026	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x1fdfd8…
01-16 01:20:10	nvda above 140 on january 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8ba4e6…
01-13 10:18:01	will hyperliquid hit 46 in january	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa7776a…
01-11 21:47:40	googl above 370 on january 30 2026	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x8f84c0…
01-10 02:37:00	will hyperliquid hit 42 in january	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xe7e917…
01-08 23:29:24	will chainlink dip to 6 in january	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf9cd7c…