Baggy-Margarine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.35K

Unrealized P&L

+$562

Hit rate

31.5%

Resolved

Trades

891

lifetime

Volume

$129.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$145

Open exposure

$64

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-14

last 06-28 14:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

77% — —

Politics

12% — —

Crypto

10% 50% $-1,351

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 102 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes		-860	$-69	8¢	$-64	+$4	05-28 10:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		+0	$-558	99¢	$0	+$558	06-11 00:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	72	$17.4K	30,633	33,656	-3,023	open	—	05-25 02:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	10	$10.8K	6,200	6,200	+0	open	—	06-11 00:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	14	$8.6K	4,963	4,385	+579	open	—	05-28 22:09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	29	$7.2K	9,134	9,134	+0	open	—	05-25 01:58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	43	$6.3K	12,195	12,195	+0	open	—	05-12 23:17
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	33	$6.0K	7,285	7,285	+0	open	—	06-08 00:03
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	27	$6.0K	4,617	5,270	-653	open	—	05-29 00:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	29	$5.8K	3,727	2,797	+930	open	—	04-30 03:16
will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	15	$4.6K	3,117	3,117	+0	open	—	06-15 09:31
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	3	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	06-02 07:13
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	3	$3.5K	3,100	700	+2,400	open	—	05-29 22:20
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	40	$3.2K	2,978	3,016	-37	open	—	06-08 14:37
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	10	$3.0K	3,924	3,924	+0	open	—	04-29 22:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	3	$2.6K	1,337	1,337	+0	open	—	05-29 23:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	8	$2.5K	1,393	1,393	+0	open	—	05-02 00:44
fifwc can qat 2026 06 18 spread home 1pt5	2	$2.5K	5,320	0	+5,320	open	—	06-18 21:15
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	11	$2.3K	2,181	2,181	+0	open	—	04-21 23:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	47	$2.0K	1,980	1,382	+599	open	—	04-27 05:17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	10	$2.0K	1,326	1,319	+7	open	—	04-30 06:36
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$2.0K	1,164	1,164	+0	open	—	06-12 11:57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	15	$1.8K	2,658	2,651	+6	open	—	04-28 06:30
btc updown 5m 1780560600	40	$1.8K	1,012	1,011	+0	open	—	06-04 08:13
deepseek v4 released by april 24	2	$1.6K	813	813	+0	open	—	04-24 06:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	2	$1.4K	1,645	0	+1,645	open	—	05-02 00:34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	16	$1.3K	3,564	3,471	+93	open	—	04-22 14:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	2	$1.3K	800	800	+0	open	—	05-18 01:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	2	$1.1K	540	540	+0	open	—	04-29 11:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	2	$1.0K	2,243	0	+2,243	Down	$-1,013	05-05 13:55
fifwc aut jor 2026 06 17 spread home 1pt5	1	$1000	1,852	0	+1,852	open	—	06-17 00:24
btc updown 5m 1780561200	14	$980	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	06-04 08:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 14:47:38	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 btts	Yes	BUY	128	47¢	$60	0xe45166…
06-28 14:35:53	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 team total home 1pt5	Over	BUY	60	18¢	$11	0x6a417d…
06-28 14:35:35	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x0d6dd2…
06-23 14:25:17	fifwc pan hrv 2026 06 23 spread away 1pt5	Panama	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0xc8b824…
06-23 14:18:56	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 btts	Yes	BUY	128	39¢	$50	0x6b2be3…
06-23 14:10:37	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 btts	Yes	BUY	132	38¢	$50	0x89b91a…
06-23 00:57:16	fifwc nor sen 2026 06 22 btts	Yes	SELL	140	55¢	$77	0x4be66e…
06-22 21:37:07	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 team total home 2pt5	Over	SELL	312	62¢	$193	0x02f8b7…
06-22 13:39:37	fifwc nor sen 2026 06 22 btts	Yes	BUY	140	57¢	$80	0xcaf156…
06-22 09:25:38	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 team total home 2pt5	Over	BUY	238	66¢	$157	0xdec845…
06-22 09:25:37	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 team total home 2pt5	Over	BUY	67	66¢	$44	0xd986f2…
06-22 09:25:37	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 team total home 2pt5	Over	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x77b193…
06-22 00:34:04	fifwc nzl egy 2026 06 21 btts	Yes	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x025ff6…
06-22 00:33:46	fifwc nzl egy 2026 06 21 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0xb44199…
06-21 12:33:04	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 team total home 2pt5	Over	BUY	135	66¢	$89	0x43e612…
06-20 13:43:23	fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 spread home 1pt5	Sweden	BUY	128	69¢	$88	0x90574e…
06-20 00:51:17	fifwc bra hai 2026 06 19 team total home 2pt5	Over	SELL	156	45¢	$70	0x876432…
06-19 15:28:55	fifwc bra hai 2026 06 19 team total home 2pt5	Over	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x28de30…
06-18 21:15:37	fifwc can qat 2026 06 18 spread home 1pt5	Qatar	BUY	4,300	46¢	$1,978	0xdce72a…
06-18 19:06:32	fifwc can qat 2026 06 18 spread home 1pt5	Qatar	BUY	1,020	49¢	$500	0xdac695…
06-17 00:24:50	fifwc aut jor 2026 06 17 spread home 1pt5	Jordan	BUY	1,852	54¢	$1,000	0x734cc3…
06-16 15:37:38	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 spread home 1pt5	Senegal	BUY	102	59¢	$60	0x0162df…
06-16 15:00:53	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 spread home 1pt5	Senegal	BUY	250	60¢	$150	0xab487a…
06-16 09:01:00	will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	No	SELL	500	28¢	$138	0x013679…
06-15 11:13:45	will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	No	BUY	495	46¢	$228	0x855b3b…
06-15 11:03:13	will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xbc72cd…
06-15 09:31:37	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	SELL	2,117	92¢	$1,947	0xc76717…
06-14 18:03:37	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 spread away 1pt5	Netherlands	BUY	659	91¢	$600	0xc7a2a3…
06-14 04:03:43	fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 spread away 2pt5	Australia	BUY	425	88¢	$374	0x27d1c7…
06-14 04:03:39	fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 spread away 2pt5	Australia	BUY	83	88¢	$73	0xf3aba0…
06-14 04:03:39	fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 spread away 2pt5	Australia	BUY	83	88¢	$73	0x53b82b…
06-14 04:03:13	fifwc aus tur 2026 06 14 spread away 2pt5	Australia	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xe36541…
06-13 00:24:42	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	SELL	1,000	82¢	$818	0xd6f13d…
06-12 11:57:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	1,164	82¢	$954	0x11d87d…
06-12 10:29:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,164	86¢	$1,000	0x5f7b39…
06-12 10:27:01	will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	No	SELL	358	21¢	$77	0x59b49a…
06-12 09:40:57	will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	No	BUY	358	18¢	$65	0x6687f9…
06-11 17:49:27	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	SELL	346	40¢	$138	0x801e98…
06-11 17:41:15	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x892811…
06-11 16:28:43	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	SELL	249	25¢	$63	0xa97e7a…
06-11 12:35:13	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	BUY	600	21¢	$126	0x9458f6…
06-11 11:47:45	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	SELL	1,077	28¢	$303	0x718e1a…
06-11 07:37:12	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	BUY	542	56¢	$306	0xeab3d3…
06-11 07:37:12	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	BUY	8	57¢	$4	0x11d49b…
06-11 00:59:21	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0x143ee6…
06-11 00:56:01	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0xe483b7…
06-11 00:55:48	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	BUY	714	50¢	$354	0x2f4afa…
06-11 00:54:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,676	93¢	$1,559	0x3d8f1b…
06-11 00:50:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x50057a…
06-11 00:46:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	323	93¢	$300	0x3abd2d…
06-10 22:29:49	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	BUY	240	56¢	$134	0xf00a40…
06-10 22:19:04	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x95eb63…
06-10 22:18:39	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x7021e2…
06-10 22:01:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	2,200	93¢	$2,046	0x1330a4…
06-10 11:05:10	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	BUY	22	66¢	$15	0x5cf5bf…
06-10 11:05:06	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	BUY	362	66¢	$239	0xd10632…
06-10 11:04:58	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	BUY	428	66¢	$283	0x66351d…
06-10 11:04:57	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	BUY	506	66¢	$334	0x156ff1…
06-10 11:04:54	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	BUY	147	66¢	$97	0xf8cbf6…
06-10 11:04:51	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	No	BUY	33	66¢	$22	0x86dc8e…
06-09 14:07:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2,000	88¢	$1,760	0x6a06a9…
06-08 14:37:13	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	49	58¢	$28	0xa1f1b7…
06-08 14:23:46	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	21	58¢	$12	0xab0819…
06-08 14:11:55	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	332	58¢	$193	0x148068…
06-08 13:44:55	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	298	58¢	$173	0x9d2e9a…
06-08 09:04:33	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	8	47¢	$4	0x9d5321…
06-08 09:04:33	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	8	47¢	$4	0x984392…
06-08 09:04:33	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	6	47¢	$3	0x4675e7…
06-08 09:04:27	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	278	48¢	$132	0x9ac46a…
06-08 04:55:51	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	28	45¢	$12	0xa6850c…
06-08 04:33:54	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	197	45¢	$89	0x1b3d19…
06-08 04:30:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	500	45¢	$225	0x842819…
06-08 03:52:01	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0xe0c289…
06-08 03:52:01	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0xd1774b…
06-08 03:52:01	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x45bd64…
06-08 03:52:00	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x030fb2…
06-08 03:51:58	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x0d0084…
06-08 03:49:21	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x6500dc…
06-08 03:47:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x2bd09f…
06-08 03:17:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,000	90¢	$900	0x2a7117…
06-08 03:16:51	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x90e4d7…
06-08 03:16:51	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x8616c2…
06-08 03:16:49	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x62a5f5…
06-08 03:16:48	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x3c14bc…
06-08 03:16:45	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x0e0724…
06-08 03:16:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x487213…
06-08 03:16:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x30d548…
06-08 03:16:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0x24a14d…
06-08 03:05:22	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	269	45¢	$121	0xaeea7f…
06-08 01:05:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,000	89¢	$890	0x0b8787…
06-08 00:03:06	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	2,027	29¢	$588	0x19509f…
06-07 23:54:16	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	1,298	23¢	$299	0x17f496…
06-07 07:22:16	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	2,017	6¢	$121	0x81fc09…
06-05 14:59:01	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x010ad1…
06-05 14:52:06	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xa4150b…
06-05 14:12:52	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	80	6¢	$5	0x854885…
06-05 13:43:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	63	6¢	$4	0xd9e4ef…
06-05 12:59:06	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	176	6¢	$11	0x13786c…
06-05 12:58:06	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	46	6¢	$3	0x7e3adc…
06-05 09:50:19	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,298	23¢	$295	0xa7b270…