Mild-Lecture — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$167

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

42.4%

Resolved

Trades

6,046

lifetime

Volume

$6.95M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.15K

Open exposure

$219

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-05 02:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

57% 100% +$167

Politics

38% 50% +$0

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 137 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No		-221	$-218	99¢	$-219	$-1	06-01 16:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran strike israel on march 10	207	$264.1K	134,840	136,243	-1,403	open	—	03-14 19:53
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	94	$256.8K	184,122	79,430	+104,691	open	—	03-04 18:25
netanyahu out by march 31 854	236	$233.1K	131,905	111,907	+19,998	open	—	03-17 15:52
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	196	$198.5K	147,203	88,896	+58,307	open	—	03-26 23:26
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	37	$179.2K	134,175	45,944	+88,231	open	—	01-03 20:25
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	31	$146.5K	85,896	63,113	+22,783	open	—	03-03 05:33
earnings mentions netflix 2026 01 20 warner bros 1 times	27	$139.7K	130,000	10,000	+120,000	open	—	01-22 02:38
will melania say career during ai talk on friday	20	$135.5K	134,834	790	+134,044	open	—	01-20 23:17
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	25	$134.9K	69,496	69,496	+0	open	—	03-12 17:53
will israel take military action in gaza on march 18 2026	67	$130.6K	65,329	68,077	-2,748	open	—	03-20 10:43
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 728 921 637 263	22	$118.1K	119,213	0	+119,213	open	—	03-11 04:26
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	60	$116.7K	118,034	1,085	+116,949	open	—	02-03 21:19
college football undefeated 15 0 team	77	$112.9K	105,387	14,391	+90,996	open	—	01-18 04:25
will crude oil cl hit high 80 by end of march 113 384 528 915 639 242 637	9	$95.9K	96,036	0	+96,036	open	—	03-06 05:58
will the greens win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	18	$92.6K	46,595	46,595	+0	open	—	03-10 06:38
will leavitt say state of the union during the next white house press briefing	26	$92.6K	92,681	0	+92,681	open	—	03-04 20:38
will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 747 434	7	$92.0K	77,605	15,556	+62,049	open	—	03-13 05:56
will the ecb announce a 50 bps decrease at the february 2026 meeting	1	$85.1K	85,183	0	+85,183	open	—	02-04 06:06
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	3	$82.5K	82,784	0	+82,784	open	—	02-28 23:55
iran strike on israel by february 28	58	$77.9K	82,502	25	+82,477	open	—	02-28 21:53
will israel strike lebanon on january 16 2026	27	$75.2K	75,243	0	+75,243	open	—	01-21 02:39
gc hit 5000 high jan 2026 374 153 895 849	21	$74.0K	74,284	0	+74,284	open	—	01-27 06:29
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$71.2K	35,731	35,731	+0	open	—	03-25 18:24
will trump talk to emmanuel macron in january	62	$70.8K	65,387	6,000	+59,387	open	—	01-30 18:56
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	7	$70.4K	35,254	35,254	+0	open	—	01-26 23:03
will trump admin release any more epstein related files by february 6	46	$69.1K	62,222	7,000	+55,222	open	—	02-08 19:51
will the government shutdown last 3 days or more	7	$66.7K	60,507	6,296	+54,211	open	—	02-02 04:36
will crude oil cl hit low 90 by end of march 217 921	23	$66.6K	66,713	0	+66,713	open	—	03-23 20:36
will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 947	8	$66.4K	61,500	5,000	+56,500	open	—	03-26 02:09
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	6	$64.9K	46,087	19,111	+26,976	open	—	03-09 19:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 02:31:58	fda approves arvinas vepdegestrant 06 05 2026	No	BUY	8,888	0¢	$36	0x8e4c6e…
06-05 02:26:15	fda approves arvinas vepdegestrant 06 05 2026	No	BUY	4,249	0¢	$8	0xc3b73f…
06-02 17:20:52	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,135	1¢	$8	0x1a036f…
06-01 16:44:03	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	55¢	$13	0xf5c4aa…
06-01 16:43:14	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	733	55¢	$401	0x459340…
06-01 16:43:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x2433e0…
06-01 16:42:44	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x986cb1…
06-01 16:42:19	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	221	55¢	$121	0xcdcb37…
06-01 16:42:18	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x8eaab9…
06-01 16:42:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x7bff39…
06-01 16:41:02	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	SELL	221	98¢	$218	0x5d493e…
05-31 18:41:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x6a7c03…
05-31 18:19:33	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	71¢	$28	0x68641f…
05-31 18:14:56	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	405	1¢	$2	0xef0d91…
05-31 17:12:07	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	73¢	$242	0xb464dd…
05-21 23:58:40	Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Cash" on Thursday?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x2d900f…
05-01 03:38:38	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	No	SELL	152	92¢	$140	0x90f291…
04-30 04:23:36	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	No	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0xa72ba0…
04-30 04:22:28	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	No	SELL	300	0¢	$2	0x34a328…
04-30 04:19:44	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	No	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0xda1b40…
04-30 04:19:22	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	No	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0xb39596…
04-30 04:19:04	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	No	SELL	1,000	0¢	$5	0x7f93a2…
04-30 04:09:24	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	No	SELL	2,000	0¢	$10	0x2079d7…
04-30 03:35:52	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	No	BUY	5,555	0¢	$22	0xb429ab…
04-30 03:32:54	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	No	BUY	555	1¢	$4	0xca3807…
04-30 03:30:40	Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?	No	BUY	383	1¢	$3	0x75fcf4…
04-05 05:58:21	sol updown 5m 1775368500	Down	BUY	29	49¢	$14	0x5d7219…
04-02 16:09:51	will trump talk to mohammed bin salman in march 915	No	SELL	2,705	1¢	$31	0xd6ed57…
04-02 02:59:17	will trump talk to mohammed bin salman in march 915	No	BUY	228	83¢	$189	0x392def…
04-02 01:48:19	will trump talk to mohammed bin salman in march 915	No	BUY	688	96¢	$657	0x5d40cf…
04-02 01:43:45	will trump talk to mohammed bin salman in march 915	No	BUY	1,294	95¢	$1,229	0xeb7b91…
04-02 01:40:41	will trump talk to mohammed bin salman in march 915	No	BUY	494	95¢	$468	0x2635b1…
04-01 00:31:57	will the kospi composite index ks11 close above 5000 on the final trading day of q1 2026	Yes	BUY	1,204	100¢	$1,202	0xa5904f…
04-01 00:31:39	will the kospi composite index ks11 close above 5250 on the final trading day of q1 2026	No	BUY	519	100¢	$518	0x5d2aa7…
04-01 00:11:31	wti up or down on march 31 2026	Down	BUY	426	100¢	$425	0x8cd2fa…
04-01 00:10:19	Will Drake officially release Iceman by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,815	100¢	$5,809	0xbd498d…
03-31 16:01:15	donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 80 99	No	BUY	155	100¢	$154	0x0d35a4…
03-31 16:00:55	donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 80 99	No	BUY	991	100¢	$989	0x709dc7…
03-31 15:59:51	donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 80 99	No	BUY	340	100¢	$339	0xc48c13…
03-31 15:58:07	donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 80 99	No	BUY	833	99¢	$828	0x74c20a…
03-31 15:57:37	donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 100 119	Yes	BUY	353	100¢	$353	0x8308cd…
03-31 15:57:31	donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 80 99	No	BUY	1,667	99¢	$1,657	0xe0100c…
03-31 15:54:57	donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 100 119	Yes	BUY	10,797	100¢	$10,745	0xe3292e…
03-31 15:54:43	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	SELL	15,000	100¢	$14,985	0x52fa1e…
03-31 14:35:55	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0x9d08a8…
03-28 04:08:29	will silver si hit low 65 by end of march	No	BUY	62	36¢	$22	0x992980…
03-27 01:32:41	US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	Yes	SELL	9,991	38¢	$3,798	0x659f64…
03-27 00:27:37	US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	Yes	BUY	15	39¢	$6	0x5d1e6a…
03-27 00:26:29	US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	Yes	BUY	778	39¢	$303	0x4b50e8…
03-27 00:18:35	US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	Yes	BUY	500	38¢	$190	0x6017f7…
03-27 00:16:19	US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	Yes	BUY	5,000	39¢	$1,950	0x6c3157…
03-27 00:15:11	US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	Yes	BUY	2,991	37¢	$1,107	0x07784c…
03-27 00:14:45	US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	Yes	BUY	500	35¢	$175	0x9de60b…
03-26 23:39:11	US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	Yes	BUY	216	36¢	$77	0xe7a749…
03-26 23:26:37	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	No	BUY	92	99¢	$91	0x9ca9b1…
03-26 23:25:17	will silver si hit low 65 by end of march	No	BUY	26	65¢	$17	0x6cc6c9…
03-26 21:38:55	will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 26 2026 253	Yes	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x412ea9…
03-26 21:36:49	will trump say hell 6 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	Yes	BUY	1,405	100¢	$1,404	0xe5389e…
03-26 20:55:13	will trump say hell 6 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	Yes	BUY	10,000	100¢	$9,990	0x5b4b6c…
03-26 20:53:37	will trump say hell 6 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	Yes	BUY	74	100¢	$74	0x3c346c…
03-26 20:53:25	will trump say hell 6 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	Yes	BUY	7,000	100¢	$6,993	0x8b2feb…
03-26 20:53:03	will trump say hell 6 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	Yes	BUY	15,000	100¢	$14,985	0x8d3c50…
03-26 20:47:21	will trump say hell 6 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	Yes	BUY	330	100¢	$329	0x95b037…
03-26 20:46:01	will trump say hell 6 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	Yes	BUY	372	100¢	$372	0x239463…
03-26 20:45:57	will trump say hell 6 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	Yes	BUY	3,333	100¢	$3,323	0x652583…
03-26 20:43:07	will trump say hell 6 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	Yes	BUY	1,600	100¢	$1,592	0x394689…
03-26 20:42:31	will trump say hell 6 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,990	0x4b914d…
03-26 20:42:21	will trump say hell 6 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	Yes	BUY	724	100¢	$720	0x221691…
03-26 20:42:03	will trump say hell 6 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0x64bfb3…
03-26 20:40:19	will trump say hell 6 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	Yes	BUY	1,000	99¢	$990	0x40cfe3…
03-26 20:39:25	will trump say hell 6 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	Yes	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x978457…
03-26 20:35:39	will trump say hell 6 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	Yes	BUY	1,930	100¢	$1,926	0x3040a6…
03-26 20:35:25	will trump say hell 6 times during cabinet meeting on march 26	Yes	BUY	293	99¢	$292	0xc58ee3…
03-26 20:28:33	will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 26 2026 253	Yes	BUY	4,990	100¢	$4,984	0x7883ba…
03-26 20:27:51	will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 26 2026 253	Yes	BUY	2,329	100¢	$2,325	0x3e1f55…
03-26 20:24:29	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 25 2026 431	Yes	BUY	8,993	100¢	$8,984	0xfc3b4a…
03-26 18:49:25	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 25 2026 431	Yes	BUY	1,858	99¢	$1,848	0xa4b6ae…
03-26 18:45:33	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 25 2026 431	Yes	BUY	1,106	98¢	$1,088	0x5ed077…
03-26 18:45:25	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 25 2026 431	Yes	BUY	3,856	99¢	$3,813	0x4234c6…
03-26 18:44:39	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 25 2026 431	Yes	BUY	147	98¢	$143	0x41797a…
03-26 18:27:05	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 25 2026 431	Yes	BUY	333	95¢	$315	0x5d1c55…
03-26 18:25:05	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 25 2026 431	Yes	BUY	266	94¢	$250	0x0bc2d5…
03-26 18:23:35	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 25 2026 431	Yes	BUY	1,150	91¢	$1,047	0x057c90…
03-26 18:22:37	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 25 2026 431	Yes	BUY	130	90¢	$117	0x4da8e3…
03-26 18:22:27	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 25 2026 431	Yes	BUY	598	90¢	$538	0xce27ed…
03-26 17:52:33	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 26 2026 528	Yes	BUY	1,052	100¢	$1,051	0x7f66e9…
03-26 17:52:25	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 26 2026 528	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0x75652e…
03-26 17:51:21	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 26 2026 528	Yes	BUY	16,500	100¢	$16,483	0x45569e…
03-26 17:50:49	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 26 2026 528	Yes	BUY	206	100¢	$205	0x97a460…
03-26 17:50:19	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 26 2026 528	Yes	BUY	3,696	100¢	$3,687	0x247e2a…
03-26 17:45:45	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 26 2026 528	Yes	BUY	2,870	99¢	$2,838	0xbeaf94…
03-26 02:32:37	will trump say favored nation at the nrcc dinner on march 25 338	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x01bd69…
03-26 02:28:59	will trump say favored nation at the nrcc dinner on march 25 338	Yes	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xdb054f…
03-26 02:28:47	will trump say favored nation at the nrcc dinner on march 25 338	Yes	BUY	1,100	100¢	$1,099	0x8990cd…
03-26 02:27:33	will trump say favored nation at the nrcc dinner on march 25 338	Yes	BUY	72	100¢	$72	0xf99eda…
03-26 02:26:31	will trump say favored nation at the nrcc dinner on march 25 338	Yes	BUY	460	100¢	$459	0x23d4e1…
03-26 02:23:15	will trump say cheat cheater cheated cheating 10 times at the nrcc dinner on march 25	Yes	BUY	301	100¢	$301	0x9df74d…
03-26 02:23:15	will trump say cheat cheater cheated cheating 10 times at the nrcc dinner on march 25	Yes	BUY	280	100¢	$279	0x9585c9…
03-26 02:23:13	will trump say cheat cheater cheated cheating 10 times at the nrcc dinner on march 25	Yes	BUY	1,232	100¢	$1,231	0xe04805…
03-26 02:16:09	will trump say cheat cheater cheated cheating 10 times at the nrcc dinner on march 25	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2da896…