Flickering-Conformation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

143

lifetime

Volume

$3.69K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-31

last 07-05 14:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 100% +$0

Politics

44% — —

Other

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	4	$509	500	500	+0	open	—	01-31 15:38
us strikes iran by february 4 2026	2	$458	460	0	+460	open	—	02-04 13:48
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	1	$446	450	0	+450	open	—	02-06 17:22
us strikes iran by february 8 2026	2	$418	421	0	+421	open	—	02-08 17:14
will bitcoin dip to 70k in february 2026 858 241	9	$352	400	400	+0	open	—	02-03 18:52
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	30	$116	1,517	1,517	+0	open	—	02-28 14:31
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	02-22 03:05
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	16	$95	4,600	4,600	+0	open	—	02-06 19:53
will us or israel strike iran on march 3 2026	1	$31	31	0	+31	open	—	03-03 07:48
bitcoin above 74k on april 12	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	04-12 10:46
bitcoin above 76k on april 11	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	04-11 09:30
bitcoin above 76k on april 10	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	04-10 13:02
bitcoin above 74k on april 9	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	04-09 08:25
bitcoin above 72k on april 7	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	04-07 12:48
ethereum above 2300 on april 6	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	04-05 21:19
ethereum above 1900 on april 3	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	04-03 13:09
will the price of ethereum be between 2300 2400 on april 1	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	04-01 13:10
bitcoin above 72k on march 31	1	$28	28	0	+28	open	—	03-31 08:50
ethereum above 2300 on march 30	1	$27	28	0	+28	open	—	03-30 08:54
ethereum above 2200 on march 29	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	03-29 09:00
ethereum above 2200 on march 28	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	03-28 06:53
ethereum above 1800 on march 27	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	03-27 12:51
ethereum above 1900 on march 26	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	03-26 04:19
bitcoin above 76k on march 25	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	03-25 03:34
ethereum above 1900 on march 24	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	03-24 11:26
will the price of ethereum be less than 1800 on march 23	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	03-23 08:24
ethereum above 2200 on march 22	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	03-22 14:11
bitcoin above 68k on march 21	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	03-21 13:48
will bitcoin reach 78k on march 20	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	03-20 14:33
will bitcoin reach 76k on march 19	1	$27	27	0	+27	open	—	03-19 13:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-06 13:05:25	bitcoin above 66k on july 6 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x7f5a48…
07-05 14:26:52	ethereum above 1900 on july 5 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xa1e556…
07-02 03:06:22	bitcoin above 66k on july 2 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x9406c4…
06-28 12:56:44	ethereum above 1700 on june 28 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x5ac241…
06-25 15:30:13	ethereum above 1900 on june 25 2026	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x988c16…
06-12 10:25:58	ethereum above 1800 on june 12 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x0393fc…
06-11 05:24:34	bitcoin above 66k on june 11 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x337066…
06-07 08:33:51	ethereum above 1800 on june 7 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x5c9942…
06-04 13:22:21	bitcoin above 68k on june 4 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd8d095…
05-30 07:48:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x8732b3…
05-23 12:31:09	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 23?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x355554…
05-22 13:12:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9b7ffc…
05-21 09:59:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xcd7434…
05-20 14:04:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x2e50e6…
05-10 13:17:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x129552…
05-07 18:27:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x129468…
05-07 15:04:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 7?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xcc4c12…
05-05 13:50:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x457491…
05-03 10:26:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xd3df23…
05-02 14:08:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 2?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x3598f5…
04-29 15:15:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 29?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xf4197a…
04-27 12:37:00	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x4560c0…
04-23 09:41:18	bitcoin above 82k on april 23	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0x1953d5…
04-22 13:15:44	bitcoin above 82k on april 22	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb765a1…
04-21 10:27:58	ethereum above 2500 on april 21	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x378805…
04-20 13:34:12	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 90 114	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xa50535…
04-19 12:08:18	bitcoin above 78k on april 19	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xe0c6b2…
04-17 12:58:54	bitcoin above 80k on april 17	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x3530f4…
04-16 12:51:06	bitcoin above 78k on april 16	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd06026…
04-15 08:18:48	bitcoin above 78k on april 15	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xb4653f…
04-14 10:56:49	ethereum above 2100 on april 14	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xbadaa5…
04-13 13:20:03	bitcoin above 74k on april 13	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x38177d…
04-12 10:46:05	bitcoin above 74k on april 12	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x18a7f5…
04-11 09:30:15	bitcoin above 76k on april 11	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x314dc8…
04-10 13:02:51	bitcoin above 76k on april 10	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x7b76f4…
04-09 08:25:17	bitcoin above 74k on april 9	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x524a61…
04-07 12:48:53	bitcoin above 72k on april 7	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x6a2b6c…
04-05 21:19:41	ethereum above 2300 on april 6	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x400e09…
04-03 13:09:27	ethereum above 1900 on april 3	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xdd0df4…
04-01 13:10:17	will the price of ethereum be between 2300 2400 on april 1	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xb2946a…
03-31 08:50:49	bitcoin above 72k on march 31	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x5bfcd1…
03-30 08:54:06	ethereum above 2300 on march 30	No	BUY	28	100¢	$27	0xff7116…
03-29 09:00:12	ethereum above 2200 on march 29	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xdea631…
03-28 06:53:27	ethereum above 2200 on march 28	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x402a68…
03-27 12:51:23	ethereum above 1800 on march 27	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x6d036d…
03-26 04:19:25	ethereum above 1900 on march 26	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x6ad9ef…
03-25 03:34:59	bitcoin above 76k on march 25	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x88b2c2…
03-24 11:26:35	ethereum above 1900 on march 24	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x5724ab…
03-23 08:24:57	will the price of ethereum be less than 1800 on march 23	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xc2e173…
03-22 14:11:59	ethereum above 2200 on march 22	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xeb9358…
03-21 13:48:29	bitcoin above 68k on march 21	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x34569c…
03-20 14:33:43	will bitcoin reach 78k on march 20	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x295e35…
03-19 13:37:29	will bitcoin reach 76k on march 19	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xafcee5…
03-18 02:15:45	bitcoin above 80k on march 18	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xb3ea02…
03-17 09:48:41	bitcoin above 80k on march 17	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xd0df4d…
03-16 09:42:51	bitcoin above 68k on march 16	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xa372d2…
03-15 14:11:11	will bitcoin reach 79k on march 15	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x1725b9…
03-12 16:27:27	bitcoin above 62k on march 13	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xafacd3…
03-11 09:11:57	us strikes iraq by march 7	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x24ef57…
03-08 05:00:11	us forces enter iran by march 7	Yes	BUY	4,000	0¢	$4	0x630b2b…
03-03 07:48:19	will us or israel strike iran on march 3 2026	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x72e4f8…
03-01 14:56:05	will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xfca500…
02-28 15:57:43	will bitcoin reach 75000 in february 858 936	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x5578b8…
02-28 14:31:21	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	30	5¢	$1	0x11bc19…
02-28 09:45:43	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$1	0xac6d3b…
02-27 14:59:31	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xbf16ee…
02-27 14:54:23	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xe5ccce…
02-27 12:50:17	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x96f8e2…
02-27 12:39:23	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x1e6d57…
02-27 10:47:25	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0xfe5c65…
02-27 10:46:11	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0xafc56c…
02-27 10:39:05	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0xc25d05…
02-27 10:38:23	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0x322f4c…
02-27 10:28:47	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0xc8cca4…
02-27 10:24:49	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xf927b0…
02-27 10:24:31	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xde4467…
02-22 03:05:20	us strikes iran by february 21 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x1b8b5f…
02-21 05:09:24	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	549	4¢	$20	0xac3c81…
02-21 05:08:22	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	9	4¢	$0	0x76c7cb…
02-21 05:08:20	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	9	4¢	$0	0x69a72e…
02-21 05:08:20	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	9	4¢	$0	0x096bad…
02-21 05:07:16	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	104	4¢	$4	0x7819ae…
02-21 05:04:52	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	9	4¢	$0	0x409cd2…
02-21 05:01:12	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	45	4¢	$2	0x6f921d…
02-21 04:59:48	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	9	4¢	$0	0x5f92d0…
02-21 04:59:16	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x982af2…
02-21 04:56:36	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	4	4¢	$0	0xef8b03…
02-21 04:54:40	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0xef2403…
02-21 04:52:44	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0x3d570d…
02-21 04:48:40	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	139	4¢	$5	0x5a77a8…
02-21 04:47:42	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	41	4¢	$2	0x293654…
02-21 04:44:18	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	9	4¢	$0	0x841d44…
02-21 04:41:54	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	52	4¢	$2	0x0a0049…
02-21 04:30:36	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	1,010	4¢	$37	0x919ad0…
02-18 14:47:28	us strikes iran by february 18 2026	Yes	BUY	16	2¢	$0	0xb7e228…
02-18 14:46:56	us strikes iran by february 18 2026	Yes	BUY	54	2¢	$1	0x574be5…
02-18 14:45:56	us strikes iran by february 18 2026	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$9	0x4aa18f…
02-08 17:14:35	us strikes iran by february 8 2026	No	BUY	361	99¢	$359	0x50b01c…
02-08 17:05:21	us strikes iran by february 8 2026	No	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0x06cc6b…
02-07 17:49:31	us strikes iran by february 7 2026	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$2	0x564be7…