Failing-Dimension — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$680

Unrealized P&L

+$308

Hit rate

76.0%

Resolved

105

Trades

1,001

lifetime

Volume

$62.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$62

Open exposure

$3.68K

16 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-27 00:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 64 days

Categories

Politics

66% 53% +$705

Other

24% 58% -$287

Sports

10% 65% +$262

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+1,200	$1,080	94¢	$1.1K	+$48	10-23 14:08
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	-652	-$607	98¢	$-636	-$29	05-27 16:44
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+765	$449	62¢	$471	+$22	10-22 10:00
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+454	$354	98¢	$446	+$92	10-27 00:00
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	No	+300	$280	94¢	$281	+$0	10-04 19:49
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	+325	$260	84¢	$275	+$15	10-25 10:15
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	+165	$4	97¢	$160	+$155	08-20 13:05
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+167	$139	92¢	$153	+$14	09-17 22:28
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+180	$92	66¢	$118	+$26	09-10 23:32
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-388	-$13	1¢	$-5	+$8	06-06 15:51
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	Yes	+5	$3	77¢	$4	+$1	05-15 22:57
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	+1	$0	98¢	$1	+$1	05-19 16:57
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	+1	$0	88¢	$1	+$1	09-30 21:05
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+2	$54	12¢	$0	-$53	08-26 11:00
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+1	-$11	10¢	$0	+$11	06-01 02:35
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	+0	$4	2¢	$0	-$4	05-27 00:05

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	111	$5.8K	4,399	4,164	+235	Yes	+$538	04-08 00:13
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	18	$3.5K	2,143	2,142	+1	Yes	+$617	05-27 00:09
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	21	$2.8K	2,949	2,944	+5	No	-$1,558	10-04 22:20
will 5 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228790	15	$2.3K	1,720	1,615	+105	No	+$130	07-11 23:02
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	7	$2.1K	1,174	1,173	+1	No	+$164	05-21 00:58
trump invokes war powers against iran by march 31 2026	58	$2.0K	2,107	2,106	+1	Yes	+$246	03-03 01:30
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	47	$1.9K	1,955	1,779	+176	Yes	+$93	02-28 00:19
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	8	$1.8K	985	984	+1	No	+$126	03-31 20:44
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	15	$1.8K	1,155	990	+165	open	—	08-20 13:05
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	62	$1.6K	4,095	1,800	+2,295	Yes	+$1,609	10-04 21:20
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	7	$1.5K	775	774	+1	No	+$42	05-15 17:39
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	9	$1.4K	2,046	2,045	+1	open	—	05-27 00:05
world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	9	$1.2K	640	639	+1	No	+$27	07-12 14:12
will the us collect between 200b and 500b in revenue in 2025	24	$1.2K	635	634	+1	No	+$95	02-28 21:59
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	5	$1.2K	619	618	+1	No	+$8	07-06 02:50
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	3	$1.1K	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	10-23 14:08
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	20	$1.1K	899	445	+454	open	—	10-27 00:00
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$1.1K	1,197	0	+1,197	Yes	+$132	09-15 23:55
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	4	$961	760	759	+1	Yes	-$165	01-15 20:27
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	13	$956	1,509	1,508	+1	No	-$504	02-03 02:19
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$940	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$60	10-25 23:37
will the government shutdown last 7 days or more 188 769 669 728 992	31	$932	575	574	+1	No	+$41	02-01 16:52
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	2	$884	450	449	+1	No	+$10	01-30 01:54
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	32	$853	3,000	2,999	+1	open	—	06-01 02:35
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	7	$808	790	789	+1	No	+$113	07-30 01:21
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	8	$664	506	709	-203	No	-$313	01-14 18:57
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30?	13	$662	503	258	+245	Yes	+$58	09-27 16:23
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	6	$629	436	435	+1	No	-$33	07-17 18:11
Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	10	$622	508	254	+254	open	—	10-23 10:38
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	1	$607	0	652	-652	open	—	05-27 16:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 00:00:33	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x9c7685…
10-26 22:10:47	Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x423cc2…
10-25 23:37:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	94¢	$940	0x4cc902…
10-25 23:05:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0xd0794f…
10-25 23:03:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0x8cb612…
10-25 20:15:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0x0e52a5…
10-25 19:58:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xc5941b…
10-25 10:15:57	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x6c7e0c…
10-25 10:10:51	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	120	80¢	$96	0x0e7fd7…
10-25 09:15:18	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	105	80¢	$84	0x224607…
10-23 16:53:33	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	20¢	$30	0x301a51…
10-23 16:53:14	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	150	71¢	$106	0xa114d4…
10-23 16:47:35	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	20¢	$30	0x6d0d2e…
10-23 16:47:21	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	150	64¢	$96	0x53b0ce…
10-23 14:08:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0xade154…
10-23 10:38:33	Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	81¢	$95	0x4b019a…
10-22 11:49:11	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	790	90¢	$711	0xf071d8…
10-22 10:00:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0xb3117e…
10-22 07:26:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xf43757…
10-22 05:17:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	120	63¢	$76	0xff8423…
10-21 20:51:44	Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	75¢	$101	0x897d3b…
10-21 03:58:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x4c5857…
10-21 03:09:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	80	54¢	$43	0xc5eddb…
10-20 16:25:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	90	54¢	$49	0xe8b7c5…
10-19 18:25:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	80	54¢	$43	0xd0ea41…
10-18 11:31:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	210	87¢	$183	0x8bc6ca…
10-16 09:34:22	Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	254	86¢	$219	0x119dc8…
10-15 18:45:19	Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	85¢	$60	0xe031ea…
10-12 14:09:23	Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x447433…
10-12 14:09:21	Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	79¢	$19	0x69569a…
10-12 14:09:20	Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x63a5d2…
10-12 14:09:20	Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x2fb09e…
10-12 07:10:40	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	125	80¢	$100	0xf127e8…
10-12 06:48:49	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0x036d90…
10-12 05:18:35	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	72	80¢	$57	0xe27713…
10-12 04:13:45	Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 30?	Yes	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0x1d0179…
10-11 17:49:39	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	90	77¢	$69	0xe01cc3…
10-11 17:40:45	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	77¢	$31	0xcd5a1d…
10-10 23:59:21	Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0x402f6c…
10-10 23:44:36	Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?	Yes	BUY	82	20¢	$16	0xb0d673…
10-10 22:18:30	Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?	Yes	BUY	250	10¢	$25	0xcafb2b…
10-10 22:09:36	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	135	78¢	$105	0x6c9ce5…
10-10 21:54:06	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	86	79¢	$68	0x74b43f…
10-10 18:50:09	Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 30?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xa41353…
10-10 03:20:21	Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	80¢	$72	0x71b210…
10-10 01:17:56	Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	79¢	$9	0x20615f…
10-09 18:34:52	Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$3	0x159943…
10-09 12:10:21	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0xc87e69…
10-09 09:51:36	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	65	78¢	$51	0xeb0041…
10-07 21:29:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	40	58¢	$23	0x7d29af…
10-07 20:53:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	170	60¢	$102	0x41bac3…
10-07 11:19:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0xd75dac…
10-07 11:19:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	99	16¢	$16	0xaa555f…
10-06 20:44:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	700	16¢	$111	0x7b894f…
10-05 23:58:35	Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$2	0x5eb734…
10-05 23:48:46	Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?	Yes	BUY	249	7¢	$17	0xb8395e…
10-05 23:03:49	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0xd6e123…
10-05 22:52:26	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x7c47c3…
10-05 22:50:59	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x6f9cab…
10-05 14:27:13	Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?	Yes	SELL	244	1¢	$2	0xf00334…
10-05 00:47:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	99	84¢	$83	0xdbdece…
10-04 22:20:11	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2,000	1¢	$26	0x6c4ac9…
10-04 22:19:53	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0xa0b36e…
10-04 22:19:53	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	SELL	81	1¢	$1	0x3e7a74…
10-04 21:54:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x625173…
10-04 21:23:05	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	13¢	$13	0x3911fe…
10-04 21:20:53	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0x93d873…
10-04 19:49:10	Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	No	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x5f43d0…
10-03 07:17:47	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	65	83¢	$54	0x16e012…
10-02 17:39:47	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	SELL	6	76¢	$5	0x1496e0…
10-01 02:26:48	pakistan military action against afghanistan by september 30 2026 20260925	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x7e604e…
10-01 02:26:03	pakistan military action against afghanistan by september 30 2026 20260925	Yes	BUY	18	4¢	$1	0xc93021…
10-01 02:25:15	pakistan military action against afghanistan by september 30 2026 20260925	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x39b7e6…
09-30 21:05:08	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	SELL	85	76¢	$65	0x64e280…
09-30 20:22:14	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	SELL	2	76¢	$2	0xe83f81…
09-30 20:22:11	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	SELL	12	76¢	$9	0x254881…
09-30 20:00:42	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x805eb7…
09-30 19:51:11	Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x441a56…
09-30 19:09:59	Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x771cc0…
09-30 11:59:50	Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0xd94f2e…
09-30 11:49:51	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	SELL	8	76¢	$6	0x97722f…
09-30 09:46:57	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	SELL	83	76¢	$63	0x0e7d95…
09-30 06:05:39	Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x0a64a8…
09-30 03:04:17	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	SELL	57	76¢	$44	0x92ec66…
09-30 01:03:27	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0xc2a663…
09-29 23:10:12	Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0xcf9c39…
09-29 22:12:09	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	339	92¢	$312	0xf0de32…
09-29 21:29:17	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	250	25¢	$62	0x791ace…
09-29 21:12:08	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	13	24¢	$3	0xca10d1…
09-29 21:11:24	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	120	24¢	$29	0xa2f939…
09-29 21:11:18	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	19	24¢	$4	0x65bc9e…
09-29 21:11:17	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	24¢	$0	0xe6a50e…
09-29 19:14:36	Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x916854…
09-29 15:52:42	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	14	24¢	$3	0xd3646b…
09-29 15:03:08	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0x96e863…
09-29 12:41:11	Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x990b6d…
09-29 07:28:26	Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xf6e9f0…
09-29 03:22:27	Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0xc5f912…
09-29 00:39:18	Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3,100	0¢	$3	0x693a91…
09-29 00:38:54	Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3,100	0¢	$3	0xd1f80f…