Damaged-Thought — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$32

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

82.9%

Resolved

Trades

111

lifetime

Volume

$393

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$27

5 positions

First seen

2026-05-14

last 11-14 23:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Crypto

53% 58% +$22

Other

23% 100% +$6

Politics

21% 90% +$3

Tech

3% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+8	$6	97¢	$7	+$1	10-19 03:39
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	No	+7	$6	99¢	$7	+$0	11-07 00:56
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+7	$6	98¢	$7	+$1	11-08 12:57
Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?	Yes	+5	$5	93¢	$5	$0	11-13 12:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+2	$1	90¢	$2	+$1	05-14 11:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-15 00:18:50	Solana Up or Down - November 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xf0b329…
11-15 00:06:50	XRP Up or Down - November 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x894a5d…
11-14 23:58:38	XRP Up or Down - November 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xb1a4ee…
11-14 23:52:05	XRP Up or Down - November 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x415ab7…
11-14 23:43:52	Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x870125…
11-14 23:33:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x8c15bc…
11-14 23:05:05	Solana Up or Down - November 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0x7553f7…
11-14 23:00:38	Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x191723…
11-14 22:51:20	XRP Up or Down - November 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xfa6f57…
11-14 22:48:08	Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x88944e…
11-14 22:36:34	XRP Up or Down - November 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xf7e4be…
11-14 22:17:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xa7de58…
11-14 22:01:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x442863…
11-14 22:00:10	Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xd43e8b…
11-14 20:16:14	XRP Up or Down - November 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x856722…
11-14 20:05:52	XRP Up or Down - November 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x4521cb…
11-14 19:58:43	XRP Up or Down - November 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	44¢	$2	0x332748…
11-14 19:30:25	Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x6d85a1…
11-14 19:18:38	Solana Up or Down - November 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x6de8cd…
11-14 19:06:14	Solana Up or Down - November 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	41¢	$2	0xb63210…
11-14 18:47:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x5498d7…
11-14 18:36:17	Solana Up or Down - November 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x63d98b…
11-14 18:32:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xff2e0b…
11-14 18:16:52	Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0xe5b023…
11-14 18:07:17	Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xcc07d4…
11-14 18:00:16	Will Aleksandar Repić win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x8bc32c…
11-14 17:55:10	Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x9c46ca…
11-14 17:35:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x08cc8f…
11-14 17:21:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x3f3ac2…
11-14 17:16:53	Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x132056…
11-14 17:10:55	Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xf4b28b…
11-14 16:50:58	Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x0a67fb…
11-14 16:50:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x0fe8c3…
11-14 16:43:59	Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x04d8a7…
11-14 16:41:31	Solana Up or Down - November 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0xe9a074…
11-14 15:33:29	Will Aleksandar Repić win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xbb16e1…
11-14 00:37:39	Will the FAA's nationwide ground stop be lifted by November 15, 12:00 AM ET?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xe29815…
11-14 00:37:36	Will the FAA's nationwide ground stop be lifted by November 15, 12:00 AM ET?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xda35e0…
11-13 18:31:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x0885f3…
11-13 18:01:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x6153b3…
11-13 17:35:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xa9440a…
11-13 17:22:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x77a536…
11-13 17:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x2da357…
11-13 16:55:06	XRP Up or Down - November 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x25540b…
11-13 16:31:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x639ff3…
11-13 15:50:27	Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x3e6fc6…
11-13 15:44:03	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x837a02…
11-13 15:36:39	Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	88¢	$5	0xcf7a73…
11-13 15:21:49	Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xfb20b6…
11-13 15:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x1dfc7e…
11-13 15:10:25	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x93ed04…
11-13 14:34:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xd12932…
11-13 14:19:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x37d665…
11-13 13:46:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0xb9f7bf…
11-13 13:38:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x48834d…
11-13 12:36:43	Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xa0c125…
11-13 09:52:58	Will Vitality Win the BLAST Rivals Hong Kong 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xb778a2…
11-13 09:50:42	Will Vitality Win the BLAST Rivals Hong Kong 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb42896…
11-11 01:47:52	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x5530f7…
11-11 01:20:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x2140a8…
11-11 01:06:39	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xe40a75…
11-11 00:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x025b12…
11-11 00:29:24	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	105	1¢	$1	0x1edfef…
11-10 23:02:25	XRP Up or Down - November 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x26c75c…
11-10 22:32:19	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xfc8a0a…
11-10 21:01:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x01b208…
11-10 16:56:22	Solana Up or Down - November 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	7¢	$1	0x1474cc…
11-08 12:57:00	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0xd77438…
11-08 10:21:01	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 13?	Yes	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0x0d976a…
11-08 05:51:55	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 13?	Yes	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x66c312…
11-08 05:51:27	Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 13?	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xbdf39a…
11-08 05:43:42	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x2de921…
11-07 00:56:58	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0x2cccd7…
10-30 16:59:34	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x6d678f…
10-29 13:59:10	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0xb6ab42…
10-29 04:05:28	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x66c957…
10-28 20:33:52	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0x51a8eb…
10-28 18:49:22	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xe23b95…
10-28 18:49:22	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0xb0d588…
10-27 05:06:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0xaca0be…
10-27 04:17:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0xf0f5de…
10-19 10:27:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x12a29d…
10-19 07:14:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x47aa4c…
10-19 03:39:33	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x0dadd1…
10-19 00:37:29	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x11cde0…
10-18 22:39:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0x22694c…
10-16 17:59:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x82db6b…
10-16 06:10:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xb3d67c…
10-16 06:05:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x3daa54…
10-16 04:04:40	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb7f297…
10-14 09:24:16	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 12-18?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x4f4ace…
10-13 07:57:34	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xbe1cc6…
10-13 00:42:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 12-18?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x27a735…
10-12 18:06:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xacce64…
10-12 14:30:53	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x03c846…
10-12 12:54:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 13?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x1ce665…
08-15 21:30:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x3d6832…
05-30 22:08:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xec254a…
05-30 22:03:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe85be8…
05-28 21:36:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x8a7a66…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	3	$15	16	0	+16	Yes	+$1	10-16 06:10
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 13?	3	$13	14	0	+14	Yes	+$1	11-08 10:21
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	2	$13	14	0	+14	No	+$1	10-18 22:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	Down	+$0	05-20 11:38
Will Vitality Win the BLAST Rivals Hong Kong 2026?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	11-13 09:52
Will Aleksandar Repić win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	11-14 18:00
Will the FAA's nationwide ground stop be lifted by November 15, 12:00 AM ET?	2	$9	10	0	+10	Yes	+$1	11-14 00:37
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?	2	$9	5	5	+0	No	+$0	11-13 15:44
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	1	$6	7	0	+7	open	—	11-07 00:56
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	1	$6	7	0	+7	Yes	+$1	10-28 20:33
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	1	$6	7	0	+7	No	+$1	11-08 05:43
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	1	$6	7	0	+7	open	—	11-08 12:57
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$6	8	0	+8	open	—	10-19 03:39
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	1	$6	6	0	+6	Yes	+$0	10-29 04:05
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	10-30 16:59
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	10-27 04:17
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	10-29 13:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	1	$6	6	0	+6	Yes	+$0	10-27 05:06
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$6	6	0	+6	Yes	+$0	10-28 18:49
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	1	$5	6	0	+6	Yes	+$1	10-19 10:27
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	1	$5	6	0	+6	Yes	+$1	10-13 07:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	1	$5	11	0	+11	Down	+$6	05-14 11:31
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	10-19 00:37
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 13?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	10-12 12:54
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	10-12 14:30
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	10-19 07:14
Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	11-13 12:36
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	10-12 18:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	Up	+$0	11-13 13:38
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 12-18?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	10-14 09:24