Lighthearted-Productivity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

62.2%

Resolved

Trades

162

lifetime

Volume

$6.69K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

$73

1 position

First seen

2026-03-16

last 06-15 11:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

37% 100% +$0

Other

37% 100% +$0

Sports

22% 50% $-0

Crypto

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No		+78	$73	94¢	$73	$-0	06-15 14:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	10	$514	492	492	+0	open	—	06-13 05:53
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	9	$481	264	264	+0	No	$-0	04-21 16:35
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	6	$333	170	170	+0	open	—	06-10 20:01
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$331	168	168	+0	open	—	03-28 21:09
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	10	$323	346	346	+0	open	—	04-18 00:17
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	5	$312	165	165	+0	Yes	+$0	04-22 02:31
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	7	$233	246	246	+0	open	—	06-15 13:27
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	4	$203	290	290	+0	open	—	05-27 22:41
will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	4	$191	132	132	+0	open	—	06-13 19:20
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	4	$191	164	164	+0	open	—	05-29 18:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	4	$184	164	164	+0	open	—	05-30 06:15
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	3	$183	199	199	+0	open	—	06-08 20:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$176	94	94	+0	open	—	05-20 18:39
will iowa state win the 2026 ncaa tournament	3	$174	92	92	+0	open	—	03-19 09:40
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	2	$174	88	88	+0	open	—	03-20 05:18
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	2	$169	88	88	+0	open	—	04-19 18:09
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	9	$168	356	356	+0	No	+$0	04-03 04:01
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	3	$166	84	84	+0	open	—	06-10 05:27
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	2	$166	85	85	+0	open	—	06-09 23:47
will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	2	$166	139	139	+0	open	—	03-20 13:54
Iran Nuke before 2027?	3	$166	92	92	+0	open	—	06-09 01:27
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	6	$162	285	285	+0	open	—	04-22 07:03
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	3	$159	82	82	+0	open	—	03-21 04:57
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	3	$158	84	84	+0	No	+$0	03-31 02:08
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	4	$157	83	83	+0	open	—	04-14 03:41
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$156	82	82	+0	open	—	04-23 11:06
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$155	88	88	+0	open	—	04-23 01:21
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$155	79	79	+0	No	+$0	04-20 19:06
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	2	$152	78	78	+0	open	—	03-18 13:36
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$89	60	60	+0	open	—	05-24 06:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 14:09:51	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	78	94¢	$73	0x3e645b…
06-15 13:27:48	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0x0b6939…
06-15 11:51:00	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x369852…
06-14 12:06:39	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	126	16¢	$20	0x87fc27…
06-14 12:05:52	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	126	16¢	$20	0x711d96…
06-14 06:48:12	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	26	81¢	$21	0xffa3e3…
06-14 06:48:07	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	74	81¢	$60	0x11a61e…
06-14 04:39:15	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x634af5…
06-13 19:20:37	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	31	9¢	$3	0x49994e…
06-13 18:15:43	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	31	15¢	$5	0xf7ba2a…
06-13 05:53:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	107	48¢	$51	0x944b42…
06-13 03:41:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	67	48¢	$32	0x3c5691…
06-13 01:56:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	174	48¢	$84	0xe817ad…
06-12 18:35:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	174	48¢	$84	0xff57ff…
06-12 17:12:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	174	53¢	$92	0x049e90…
06-12 12:56:22	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	101	91¢	$92	0xea307e…
06-12 11:13:31	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	101	91¢	$92	0x05c128…
06-10 20:01:42	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	56	97¢	$55	0x89ec33…
06-10 20:01:42	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x22ef72…
06-10 16:45:57	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	86	97¢	$84	0x11d2a1…
06-10 11:40:40	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	SELL	77	36¢	$28	0x009a77…
06-10 10:13:25	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	BUY	77	36¢	$28	0x2a8cdb…
06-10 05:27:45	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xd4e60b…
06-10 05:27:45	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	67	99¢	$66	0xbbf103…
06-10 02:02:04	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	84	99¢	$83	0x5a2dd6…
06-09 23:47:55	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	85	98¢	$83	0xb97175…
06-09 19:32:13	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	85	97¢	$83	0xb13535…
06-09 10:18:27	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	82	98¢	$81	0xf35c99…
06-09 10:18:27	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xb21bad…
06-09 06:52:48	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	84	98¢	$83	0x8ddabc…
06-09 01:27:55	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	61	90¢	$55	0xb582f7…
06-09 01:27:55	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	31	90¢	$28	0x51cd5b…
06-09 00:11:46	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	92	90¢	$83	0xf15161…
06-08 20:12:40	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	186	46¢	$86	0xcfa836…
06-08 20:12:40	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	13	46¢	$6	0x2faf41…
06-08 18:31:46	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	199	46¢	$92	0x6df1b1…
06-05 16:55:03	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	92	27¢	$25	0xe39f2c…
06-05 10:52:00	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	92	27¢	$25	0xf222c1…
06-05 03:41:24	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	45¢	$6	0xce3d5b…
06-05 03:41:22	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	82	45¢	$37	0xc7810f…
06-05 02:12:12	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	37	45¢	$17	0xabad8c…
06-05 02:12:12	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	58	45¢	$26	0x886cb4…
06-04 14:49:36	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	185	4¢	$8	0x8f646f…
06-04 12:30:40	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	185	5¢	$9	0xe860e7…
05-30 06:15:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	56¢	$5	0xedbad0…
05-30 06:14:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	56¢	$7	0x6ca451…
05-30 04:14:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	142	56¢	$80	0xc7939f…
05-30 04:13:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	164	56¢	$92	0xbed6ab…
05-29 18:51:11	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	121	69¢	$83	0x51fcdd…
05-29 17:16:34	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	121	68¢	$82	0x2b7e7d…
05-29 08:43:58	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	110	75¢	$82	0xd45fdb…
05-28 17:51:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	78	59¢	$46	0x0eafc8…
05-28 17:51:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	66	59¢	$39	0xf8add1…
05-28 16:39:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	75	60¢	$45	0x9925d5…
05-28 16:39:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x869332…
05-28 16:39:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	19	60¢	$11	0x6d3e5b…
05-28 13:48:46	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	43	29¢	$12	0x04491e…
05-28 12:07:16	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	43	29¢	$12	0x129639…
05-27 22:41:08	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	96	99¢	$95	0x0c7492…
05-27 20:29:44	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	96	99¢	$95	0x915da5…
05-24 06:50:35	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	60	75¢	$45	0x754c57…
05-24 05:15:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	60	74¢	$44	0x8e7e73…
05-23 15:05:16	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	194	5¢	$9	0x50e2ee…
05-23 13:06:23	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	194	2¢	$4	0xfb9913…
05-20 18:39:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	94	94¢	$88	0x90a983…
05-20 18:38:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	94	94¢	$88	0xcc1fd5…
05-15 06:38:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	2¢	$2	0x082149…
05-15 04:33:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	2¢	$2	0xbf3d59…
04-23 11:06:56	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	82	95¢	$78	0x7a2e93…
04-23 08:51:04	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	82	95¢	$78	0x67a110…
04-23 01:21:48	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	88	88¢	$77	0x07290f…
04-23 00:44:38	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	88	88¢	$77	0xb40a05…
04-22 07:03:14	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	207	2¢	$4	0xf8d536…
04-22 05:58:22	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	98	2¢	$2	0x9c7335…
04-22 05:58:22	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	96	2¢	$2	0x96ca8a…
04-22 05:58:22	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x6889fc…
04-22 02:31:56	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	82	94¢	$77	0x00cc6a…
04-22 01:21:04	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	82	94¢	$77	0x6e03e7…
04-21 16:35:38	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0xc43604…
04-21 16:35:38	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	81	88¢	$72	0x28de96…
04-21 12:31:14	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0xb88012…
04-21 12:31:14	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	30	88¢	$27	0x091d67…
04-21 10:14:22	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	78	99¢	$77	0x4611b3…
04-21 05:31:02	Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	78	99¢	$77	0x50f0b9…
04-20 19:06:46	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	65	98¢	$64	0x39def6…
04-20 19:06:46	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0x2c5cff…
04-20 16:43:36	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	55	98¢	$54	0x73442f…
04-20 16:43:36	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$23	0x22d3f1…
04-19 18:09:26	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	88	96¢	$84	0x917a03…
04-19 15:46:34	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	88	96¢	$84	0xbefbe1…
04-18 19:04:28	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	85	4¢	$3	0xcd8b7a…
04-18 16:45:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	79	3¢	$3	0x7b7eaa…
04-18 16:45:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x3db744…
04-18 00:17:26	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	186	2¢	$4	0x6cf49e…
04-17 21:58:32	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0x70a84f…
04-17 21:58:32	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x203b98…
04-17 21:58:32	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x1561a1…
04-17 13:55:26	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	43	88¢	$38	0x9caeb4…
04-17 13:55:26	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	43	88¢	$38	0x88dfee…
04-17 10:02:20	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	86	89¢	$76	0x9cbc3f…