Imaginative-Withdrawal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$322

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

71.9%

Resolved

465

Trades

988

lifetime

Volume

$5.42K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$16

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-14

last 10-21 02:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 26 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 53% -$122

Other

4% 14% -$12

Sports

3% 0% -$180

Politics

2% 50% +$2

Tech

1% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		-12	-$10	98¢	$-12	-$2	05-12 00:07
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No		+20	$10	19¢	$4	-$7	09-11 13:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 13:45 UTC	2	$344	174	174	+0	Up	+$3	03-15 13:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 13:40 UTC	2	$331	171	171	+0	Up	+$10	03-15 13:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 11:00 UTC	2	$316	159	159	+0	Down	+$3	03-15 11:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 11:10 UTC	2	$202	103	103	+0	Down	+$2	03-15 11:15
Will Chengdu Rongcheng win Chinese Super League?	1	$180	200	0	+200	No	-$180	10-21 02:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	2	$58	39	39	+0	Up	+$18	05-11 21:44
Will Jack Crompton win the 2026 Whistler mayoral election?	4	$54	40	40	+0	Yes	+$8	09-07 21:27
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in August?	2	$50	40	40	+0	No	+$0	09-30 12:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	2	$45	38	38	+0	Up	+$5	05-11 20:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	1	$40	76	0	+76	Down	-$40	05-13 05:40
Will Sally Doyle win the next Huon Valley mayoral election?	4	$39	40	40	+0	No	-$7	09-08 14:21
Will Anna Wintour attend Ralph Lauren?	3	$35	40	40	+0	Yes	-$12	09-07 17:02
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	4	$33	40	40	+0	No	-$6	09-08 14:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	2	$32	23	23	+0	Up	+$12	05-11 18:04
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	3	$29	40	20	+20	open	—	09-11 13:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	2	$29	19	19	+0	Up	+$9	05-11 21:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	2	$29	19	19	+0	Up	+$9	05-11 18:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	2	$27	17	17	+0	Up	+$7	05-11 15:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	2	$26	19	19	+0	Up	+$6	05-11 19:59
Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?	2	$24	20	20	+0	No	+$0	09-11 13:52
US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Botic van de Zandschulp	4	$22	20	20	+0	Botic van de Zandschulp	+$0	09-06 01:05
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200?	2	$21	20	20	+0	No	-$4	09-08 14:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	1	$20	53	0	+53	Down	-$20	05-13 05:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	2	$18	14	14	+0	Up	+$8	05-11 22:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	4	$18	20	10	+10	Down	+$9	05-19 10:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	3	$16	19	9	+10	Up	+$9	05-16 15:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	2	$16	11	11	+0	Up	+$6	05-11 17:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	2	$16	11	11	+0	Up	+$6	05-11 18:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	2	$16	11	11	+0	Up	+$6	05-11 15:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$16	11	11	+0	Up	+$6	05-11 16:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 02:47:15	Will Chengdu Rongcheng win Chinese Super League?	Yes	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x2d1be6…
09-30 12:30:09	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in August?	No	SELL	40	63¢	$25	0x91bd5d…
09-12 18:11:33	Will Valérie Hamel win the next Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x23eaad…
09-11 13:52:27	Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?	No	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0xd06b38…
09-11 13:33:55	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x6b22f0…
09-10 12:32:22	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in August?	No	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x712bba…
09-10 00:40:19	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x98f33e…
09-10 00:11:01	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xc956e1…
09-09 08:42:37	SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	10¢	$2	0x5757e6…
09-09 02:04:42	SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x218d4c…
09-08 19:33:22	SSI public model released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0x9427ee…
09-08 17:53:04	Will Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise win the next La Prairie Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0xc089bd…
09-08 14:22:00	Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200?	No	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0x5ab120…
09-08 14:21:57	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	No	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x573c50…
09-08 14:21:51	Will Sally Doyle win the next Huon Valley mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x25ff41…
09-07 21:47:06	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x29aeb0…
09-07 21:27:10	Will Jack Crompton win the 2026 Whistler mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	39	77¢	$30	0xe5ba41…
09-07 19:49:21	Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x68baa9…
09-07 18:28:03	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xe65558…
09-07 17:32:28	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x58768d…
09-07 17:04:33	Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x803074…
09-07 17:02:15	Will Anna Wintour attend Ralph Lauren?	No	SELL	40	29¢	$12	0x6e54ff…
09-06 09:43:36	Will Jack Crompton win the 2026 Whistler mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xf78496…
09-06 08:05:34	Will Valérie Hamel win the next Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x569018…
09-06 07:11:51	Will Sally Doyle win the next Huon Valley mayoral election?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x335e65…
09-06 05:00:16	Will Sally Doyle win the next Huon Valley mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x0e2581…
09-06 04:45:58	Will Sally Doyle win the next Huon Valley mayoral election?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xd8e8b4…
09-06 04:24:09	Will Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise win the next La Prairie Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc738bc…
09-06 03:41:21	Will Anna Wintour attend Ralph Lauren?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0xb575a0…
09-06 03:35:46	Will Anna Wintour attend Ralph Lauren?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x35db3e…
09-06 03:18:21	Will Jack Crompton win the 2026 Whistler mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x002931…
09-06 03:17:07	Will Jack Crompton win the 2026 Whistler mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xd7fe6d…
09-06 01:08:16	US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala	Alexandra Eala	SELL	10	32¢	$3	0x9b5009…
09-06 01:08:04	US Open WTA: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala	Alexandra Eala	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0xfaa734…
09-06 01:05:24	US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Botic van de Zandschulp	Botic van de Zandschulp	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0x386810…
09-06 01:02:43	US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Botic van de Zandschulp	Botic van de Zandschulp	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x766347…
09-06 01:02:33	US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens	Naomi Osaka	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0x60b43e…
09-06 01:02:31	US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens	Naomi Osaka	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xa44bd9…
09-06 01:00:45	US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Botic van de Zandschulp	Zizou Bergs	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0xec4f8c…
09-06 00:59:09	US Open ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Botic van de Zandschulp	Zizou Bergs	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xf29a15…
05-21 09:35:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x10bdfe…
05-21 08:49:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x73a671…
05-21 08:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x31f548…
05-21 08:17:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xc6d27a…
05-21 08:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x731557…
05-21 08:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x345966…
05-21 07:55:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x532a93…
05-21 07:55:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x48f97d…
05-21 07:54:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xab6ee3…
05-21 07:50:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x9cc8d1…
05-21 07:50:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x01b274…
05-21 07:40:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc6e2a9…
05-21 07:39:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xbef209…
05-21 07:35:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x45ca9b…
05-21 06:45:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf7c9f2…
05-21 05:54:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xcbad80…
05-21 05:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xf6bf93…
05-21 05:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x6edc6b…
05-21 05:29:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0xb1129e…
05-21 05:26:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xeb79a4…
05-21 05:24:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x310282…
05-21 05:21:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xf53716…
05-21 05:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0x8d2744…
05-21 05:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	SELL	4	83¢	$3	0x0b8697…
05-21 05:15:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0xf002bf…
05-21 05:15:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0x0c4980…
05-21 05:00:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xb992ff…
05-21 05:00:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x7f36a7…
05-21 05:00:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	52¢	$1	0x409b96…
05-21 04:22:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xc4baa2…
05-21 04:20:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xfba858…
05-21 04:08:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x04d274…
05-21 04:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x0a1a61…
05-21 02:34:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0x65d38b…
05-21 02:30:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xe2ae8e…
05-21 02:29:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0xb00137…
05-21 02:25:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x9800e3…
05-21 02:24:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x52837a…
05-21 02:20:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf3dc83…
05-21 01:30:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xc46f4c…
05-21 00:50:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x3382bc…
05-21 00:37:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0xdebcee…
05-21 00:37:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	SELL	4	83¢	$3	0x64f614…
05-21 00:37:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x2531b7…
05-21 00:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf32598…
05-21 00:18:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x3e78c7…
05-21 00:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x74eb53…
05-21 00:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x500aa7…
05-21 00:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0xd2d498…
05-21 00:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	7	52¢	$4	0xb42559…
05-20 23:54:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0xb4b0fa…
05-20 23:50:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa55a82…
05-20 22:37:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	SELL	4	83¢	$3	0xfa315c…
05-20 22:37:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0xd9a758…
05-20 22:37:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x146658…
05-20 22:35:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x916b66…
05-20 22:21:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0x12c0a4…
05-20 22:20:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	52¢	$1	0xbeef76…
05-20 22:20:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x7690af…
05-20 22:20:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xf942d8…