Direct-Toffee — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$113

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

5.9%

Resolved

112

Trades

144

lifetime

Volume

$23.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$166

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-23

last 10-10 03:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 57 days

Categories

Sports

47% 0% -$9

Other

33% 82% -$97

Politics

16% 80% -$9

Crypto

4% 92% +$1

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$3.7K	1,878	1,870	+8	No	-$2	01-31 08:16
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	3	$3.7K	1,868	1,868	+0	No	-$2	02-02 06:50
Will the New York Rangers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	3	$3.7K	1,857	1,855	+2	No	-$2	02-23 02:32
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 700 719	3	$3.7K	1,844	1,844	+0	No	-$2	02-02 06:50
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	3	$3.7K	1,843	1,843	-0	No	-$2	02-02 06:50
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	11	$2.5K	6,822	6,821	+0	No	$0	06-17 11:07
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$1.2K	4,636	4,630	+6	No	-$5	06-19 06:09
Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	1	$107	398	0	+398	No	-$107	07-05 06:13
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	1	$72	72	0	+72	No	+$0	09-11 07:42
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on October 11?	1	$72	72	0	+72	No	+$0	10-10 03:39
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May?	2	$50	26	24	+2	No	+$0	05-28 03:04
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May?	2	$44	23	21	+2	No	+$0	05-28 03:04
Will Solana dip to $10 in May?	2	$40	23	17	+6	No	+$0	05-18 06:09
will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	2	$39	20	19	+1	No	$0	03-10 06:05
will xrp reach 3 in june 2026	2	$35	18	17	+1	No	+$0	06-27 07:08
will solana reach 160 in june 2026	2	$33	17	16	+1	No	$0	06-27 07:08
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	2	$33	17	16	+1	No	+$0	06-27 07:08
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	1	$26	26	0	+26	No	+$0	05-05 09:40
will solana dip to 10 in august 2026	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	08-05 03:43
will ethereum dip to 200 in march 2026	2	$25	13	12	+1	No	$0	03-10 06:05
will xrp dip to 0pt2 in august 2026	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	08-05 03:43
Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	2	$24	13	11	+2	No	$0	04-03 01:46
Will Xiaomi be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	08-25 03:16
will bitcoin dip to 50k august 3 9 2026	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	08-05 03:42
will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	2	$23	12	11	+1	No	$0	03-10 06:05
will ethereum reach 3000 in june 2026	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	06-09 06:36
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5?	1	$21	21	0	+21	No	+$0	05-05 09:46
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts first half	1	$20	24	0	+24	No	+$4	07-19 03:28
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$20	12	11	+1	No	+$1	04-03 01:46
will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-09 06:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-10 03:39:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on October 11?	No	BUY	72	100¢	$72	0xed6c66…
09-11 07:42:28	Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	72	100¢	$72	0x62c34e…
08-25 03:16:03	Will Xiaomi be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xce9dcb…
08-05 03:43:48	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in august 2026	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xa8d77a…
08-05 03:43:02	will solana dip to 10 in august 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x015669…
08-05 03:42:30	will bitcoin dip to 50k august 3 9 2026	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x128a92…
07-19 03:30:57	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 corners first half total 3pt5	Over	BUY	22	52¢	$12	0xc14cfc…
07-19 03:30:21	Spain to score first vs. Argentina?	No	BUY	24	47¢	$11	0x995340…
07-19 03:29:48	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts	No	BUY	22	47¢	$10	0x0d66a2…
07-19 03:29:18	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts second half	Yes	BUY	22	28¢	$6	0x54f4c7…
07-19 03:28:46	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts first half	No	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x0174be…
07-05 06:13:02	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	398	27¢	$107	0xf4aef8…
06-27 07:11:01	bitcoin above 70k on june 30 2026	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x344c84…
06-27 07:10:49	bitcoin above 72k on june 29 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x327fdf…
06-27 07:10:37	bitcoin above 68k on june 28 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x3f80d4…
06-27 07:10:20	bitcoin above 64k on june 27 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x8d70a2…
06-27 07:08:49	will xrp reach 3 in june 2026	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xc7d58d…
06-27 07:08:41	Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xb918d3…
06-27 07:08:32	will solana reach 160 in june 2026	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x26c20b…
06-19 06:09:59	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	4,630	13¢	$593	0x239f90…
06-19 06:08:38	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	4,636	13¢	$598	0xa8c0ed…
06-17 11:07:04	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	3,593	18¢	$665	0x1c9e72…
06-17 11:05:37	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,580	18¢	$477	0x270b9d…
06-17 11:03:40	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	178	18¢	$33	0x87e447…
06-17 11:03:20	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	32	18¢	$6	0xb603c4…
06-17 11:03:19	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	270	18¢	$50	0xcdb9aa…
06-17 11:01:43	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0xec35a9…
06-17 10:58:29	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0xb6063c…
06-17 10:58:29	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0x9d6b13…
06-17 10:56:58	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	27	18¢	$5	0xd13473…
06-17 10:56:02	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	133	18¢	$25	0x0a9a26…
06-17 05:47:29	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6,822	18¢	$1,262	0x286cf9…
06-09 06:37:28	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xe13541…
06-09 06:37:15	Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x7d3134…
06-09 06:36:52	will solana reach 160 in june 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x9ed719…
06-09 06:36:34	will xrp reach 3 in june 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xfce8be…
06-09 06:36:15	will ethereum reach 3000 in june 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xc86753…
06-09 06:35:48	will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x5094e8…
05-28 03:11:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x3b9844…
05-28 03:11:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 31?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x7cd528…
05-28 03:10:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on May 30?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x896efd…
05-28 03:10:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4fb2e5…
05-28 03:04:39	Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x247726…
05-28 03:04:31	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x7ce4d5…
05-18 06:15:21	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xe1de18…
05-18 06:14:56	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xea0aa7…
05-18 06:09:13	Will Solana dip to $10 in May?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x1ee28c…
05-14 06:03:24	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x9cb621…
05-14 06:02:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xa11da3…
05-05 09:46:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xfe79a1…
05-05 09:45:36	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x279bb2…
05-05 09:44:56	Will Solana dip to $10 in May?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x8444eb…
05-05 09:44:18	Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x477864…
05-05 09:40:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x696fb3…
04-10 02:12:47	bitcoin above 60k on april 11	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x786479…
04-10 02:12:39	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xcd616b…
04-10 02:12:27	Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x14c6f6…
04-10 02:12:21	Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xd93f64…
04-10 02:12:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x51c59f…
04-03 01:52:41	bitcoin above 56k on april 5	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x861616…
04-03 01:52:25	bitcoin above 58k on april 4	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc62032…
04-03 01:52:09	will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on april 3	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe97899…
04-03 01:46:27	Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xf35337…
04-03 01:46:17	USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x6cd799…
04-03 01:46:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	11	97¢	$10	0x8a0941…
04-02 01:23:53	Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xc8dbd0…
04-02 01:23:33	Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x34db16…
04-02 01:23:19	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0xc0ca17…
04-02 01:22:59	elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 240plus	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x7fe6b2…
04-02 01:22:45	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 580plus	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x339a8b…
04-02 01:22:25	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 580plus	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xbd0d12…
04-02 01:22:11	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 360 379	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x5592fe…
03-30 06:43:38	will the price of bitcoin be between 76000 78000 on march 31	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xf67df9…
03-30 06:43:24	will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on march 30	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x845726…
03-30 06:43:02	bitcoin above 80k on april 1	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x46471b…
03-30 06:42:52	bitcoin above 78k on march 31	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcdecf8…
03-30 06:42:42	bitcoin above 72k on march 30	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x3dbe12…
03-17 11:39:57	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 580plus	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xb06f39…
03-17 11:39:45	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 580plus	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x6473fe…
03-17 11:39:37	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 500 519	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfaaf77…
03-17 11:39:29	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 320 339	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xae7c64…
03-17 11:37:57	bitcoin above 78k on march 17	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x329bc9…
03-10 06:08:55	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x6f205d…
03-10 06:08:45	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xc40a8e…
03-10 06:08:35	us strikes iraq by march 7	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x780136…
03-10 06:08:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xb57059…
03-10 06:08:15	will us or israel strike iran on march 10 2026	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x776541…
03-10 06:08:05	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xae62de…
03-10 06:07:57	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x145525…
03-10 06:07:51	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xb5d8a4…
03-10 06:07:27	USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x562cd2…
03-10 06:07:11	will russia enter ternuvate again by march 31	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x2871cd…
03-10 06:06:57	us evacuates baghdad embassy by march 31	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x11fdf9…
03-10 06:05:59	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x3cdac8…
03-10 06:05:51	will ethereum dip to 200 in march 2026	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x87f4ce…
03-10 06:05:43	will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x458750…
03-07 06:22:37	will ethereum dip to 1300 march 2 8	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xd16d03…
03-07 06:22:21	ethereum above 2200 on march 7	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xc605f1…
03-07 06:22:03	will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x1fe7ef…
03-07 06:21:41	will bitcoin dip to 52k march 2 8	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x1333e1…