Light-Front — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$511

Unrealized P&L

-$3.32K

Hit rate

78.5%

Resolved

362

Trades

3,667

lifetime

Volume

$889.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$243

Open exposure

$7.08K

15 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-31 19:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 125 days

Categories

Other

62% 68% -$915

Politics

34% 75% +$4,112

Crypto

3% 62% +$387

Sports

0% 0% -$3,074

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

68 active days in 12wk • peak 79 trades/day

Open positions (15) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?	No	+2,904	$1,574	66¢	$1.9K	+$357	10-31 10:01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+2,502	$1,773	44¢	$1.1K	-$683	10-16 12:22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,150	$1,000	88¢	$1.0K	+$17	10-25 19:57
will russia capture kupiansk vuzlovyi by december 31 547	Yes	+8,552	$4,044	11¢	$898	-$3,146	07-29 22:37
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	No	+3,000	$959	26¢	$780	-$179	10-25 12:00
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?	Yes	+2,278	$526	34¢	$763	+$237	10-31 04:13
will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	Yes	+591	$242	36¢	$210	-$32	10-31 07:32
will russia capture kupiansk vuzlovyi by december 31 547	No	+190	$90	90¢	$170	+$80	08-17 13:21
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?	Yes	+188	$60	50¢	$94	+$34	10-06 10:18
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+100	$74	72¢	$72	-$2	10-18 12:50
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	No	+28	$28	100¢	$28	$0	10-31 19:01
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?	No	+16	$1	96¢	$15	+$15	07-01 07:24
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+100	$31	8¢	$8	-$23	09-22 02:06
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+5	$4	58¢	$3	-$1	10-21 00:18
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$4	76¢	$0	+$4	09-16 16:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Clavicular receive a Kick ban by June 1, 2026?	18	$31.2K	27,120	27,120	+0	Yes	-$8,004	03-11 01:49
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	37	$26.1K	13,824	13,824	+0	Yes	+$1,081	04-21 22:14
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by April 30, 2026?	17	$25.0K	18,660	18,660	+0	No	-$7,230	03-11 00:57
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	34	$23.3K	15,763	10,973	+4,790	No	+$1,426	01-31 14:13
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	35	$21.2K	12,214	12,214	+0	Yes	+$3,019	10-23 13:52
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	81	$21.2K	12,384	12,186	+197	Yes	+$3,256	04-25 19:49
russia x ukraine prisoner exchange by february 14 2026	20	$19.3K	9,866	9,866	+0	Yes	+$282	02-05 12:44
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	49	$18.6K	13,311	8,996	+4,316	Yes	+$1,040	09-22 22:49
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	22	$14.2K	8,050	8,050	+0	No	+$1,049	01-17 11:15
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	57	$13.8K	9,388	9,700	-312	No	+$3,008	07-01 03:15
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	58	$13.7K	8,028	8,106	-78	Yes	+$2,262	04-24 23:59
will russia enter oleksiievo druzhkivka by september 30 20260706175201730	10	$13.4K	11,334	3,786	+7,547	Yes	+$937	07-30 21:01
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	2	$13.3K	10,066	4,500	+5,566	Yes	+$1,222	08-18 18:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	10	$12.9K	6,000	8,000	-2,000	Yes	+$1,757	05-01 01:38
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?	15	$12.5K	6,570	6,570	+0	Yes	+$384	09-22 21:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	14	$12.1K	6,300	6,300	+0	No	+$75	04-15 21:45
will ukraine re enter huliaipole by march 31	58	$10.7K	10,137	3,677	+6,460	Yes	+$262	03-06 14:30
will russia capture all of huliaipole by march 31	65	$10.7K	10,240	4,163	+6,077	No	+$1,211	03-31 21:57
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	5	$10.6K	10,445	445	+10,000	No	+$322	06-03 13:38
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	3	$10.4K	5,883	5,883	+0	open	—	07-08 17:40
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	4	$10.0K	5,214	5,204	+10	No	+$5	02-28 12:02
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?	64	$9.4K	10,067	5,783	+4,284	No	+$1,250	04-26 18:16
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	6	$9.4K	11,450	0	+11,450	Yes	-$9,372	02-18 02:16
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	7	$9.3K	4,921	4,921	-0	No	+$238	01-22 16:22
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	18	$9.3K	11,393	4,193	+7,200	Yes	+$1,767	08-18 23:49
will russia capture all of huliaipole by february 28	26	$9.3K	8,871	4,698	+4,173	No	-$501	03-01 07:13
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	10	$9.2K	5,410	5,410	+0	Yes	+$1,595	08-12 22:04
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	34	$8.8K	11,902	255	+11,647	Yes	-$1,000	05-29 21:00
will bitcoin dip to 55k in june 2026	12	$8.4K	5,153	5,153	+0	No	+$1,040	06-29 16:58
us strikes iran by february 11 2026 664	4	$8.2K	4,211	4,211	+0	No	+$181	02-11 08:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 19:03:06	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,963	100¢	$2,957	0x9f45bc…
10-31 19:02:42	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,837	100¢	$2,834	0xbcc765…
10-31 19:02:27	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	419	100¢	$418	0x0c417a…
10-31 19:01:58	Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?	No	BUY	77	100¢	$77	0x004e76…
10-31 19:01:42	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x7c5481…
10-31 19:01:27	Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?	No	BUY	198	100¢	$197	0xc6f5ae…
10-31 18:59:58	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31?	No	BUY	90	98¢	$89	0xbf3b9a…
10-31 18:59:34	Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?	No	BUY	224	99¢	$222	0x6a2b89…
10-31 18:58:40	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	436	99¢	$431	0x13d550…
10-31 18:55:58	Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,348	97¢	$1,306	0xac0ae6…
10-31 18:55:45	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,124	99¢	$2,102	0xe4da37…
10-31 18:55:34	Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	831	100¢	$830	0xb6be7a…
10-31 18:55:24	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	BUY	211	99¢	$210	0x83bb78…
10-31 18:55:12	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,150	99¢	$1,144	0x53b7d3…
10-31 10:01:09	Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?	No	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0xf0323e…
10-31 07:32:22	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	26¢	$2	0x509387…
10-31 04:13:25	Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?	Yes	BUY	510	24¢	$120	0xd3a55a…
10-30 21:36:49	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	971	98¢	$948	0x947fed…
10-30 21:36:34	Will Russia capture Svitle by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3,392	98¢	$3,324	0xf8f47f…
10-30 21:36:19	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	BUY	299	97¢	$290	0x55d665…
10-30 15:43:37	Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?	No	SELL	71	81¢	$57	0x217854…
10-28 23:41:50	Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,157	29¢	$335	0x61d3a0…
10-28 23:41:19	Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?	No	SELL	119	81¢	$96	0xd48a2a…
10-28 10:58:44	Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x35fb25…
10-27 23:20:42	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x6c0cdd…
10-27 22:44:21	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	1,600	85¢	$1,362	0x2ae8c4…
10-27 22:44:02	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	893	92¢	$821	0x295359…
10-27 22:43:56	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	110	85¢	$94	0xb113d4…
10-27 22:43:56	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	145	85¢	$123	0x851885…
10-27 22:43:27	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	45	85¢	$38	0xdcb8e0…
10-27 22:43:14	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	200	84¢	$168	0x8fc732…
10-27 22:40:20	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	499	92¢	$459	0x2956a1…
10-27 22:37:27	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	Yes	BUY	607	10¢	$61	0x9743d8…
10-27 20:15:02	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	119	66¢	$79	0x467200…
10-27 20:02:56	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$980	0x45ba69…
10-27 20:00:32	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	43¢	$430	0xf8f3ac…
10-27 19:25:14	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	1,000	87¢	$870	0xdaca1c…
10-27 19:22:17	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0x6852ab…
10-27 18:14:23	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0xa73d4d…
10-27 17:50:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	93¢	$932	0x0d463b…
10-27 17:41:30	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x28a5ae…
10-27 17:23:59	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0xb68043…
10-27 15:54:20	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	133	86¢	$114	0xdbb616…
10-27 15:54:06	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	22	86¢	$19	0x3e503e…
10-27 15:53:54	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0xe34870…
10-27 15:53:54	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0x162f71…
10-27 15:43:47	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0x954b4d…
10-27 15:42:47	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0x7f5c3d…
10-27 15:37:24	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	145	86¢	$125	0xa322f3…
10-27 15:36:02	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	250	86¢	$215	0x7b7cf0…
10-27 15:24:44	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	SELL	750	87¢	$652	0x0384d9…
10-26 17:56:06	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	500	99¢	$493	0x540b5a…
10-26 09:42:27	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	114	98¢	$113	0x888bb4…
10-26 09:14:47	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,962	77¢	$1,514	0xc8866e…
10-26 08:08:21	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,994	87¢	$1,733	0xaa903d…
10-26 07:39:06	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	365	98¢	$359	0xedc153…
10-26 00:03:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	2,530	98¢	$2,480	0x22411e…
10-25 23:57:21	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	920	93¢	$856	0x063e78…
10-25 23:57:03	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	26	93¢	$24	0x51a12b…
10-25 23:56:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0xbcb54c…
10-25 23:56:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	150	94¢	$141	0xd704ff…
10-25 23:56:27	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	850	94¢	$799	0xc01a0c…
10-25 20:36:45	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0xe29594…
10-25 20:33:03	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x7a0dbf…
10-25 19:57:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,150	87¢	$1,000	0xfa7fe5…
10-25 19:50:39	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,447	21¢	$307	0x589a3e…
10-25 19:32:09	Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?	Yes	BUY	611	12¢	$71	0xed8eda…
10-25 19:02:59	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	428	75¢	$321	0x0bad10…
10-25 19:01:54	Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	270	69¢	$187	0x1c43bf…
10-25 12:10:53	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0x8142ab…
10-25 12:00:06	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	No	BUY	253	36¢	$91	0x150cae…
10-25 09:18:11	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	225	80¢	$180	0x2861c5…
10-25 08:32:12	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0xd99fdf…
10-25 07:49:14	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x4a3a65…
10-25 03:18:03	Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	No	BUY	915	35¢	$320	0x98c3ec…
10-24 19:38:14	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	195	80¢	$156	0xf13957…
10-24 19:31:23	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x613fc1…
10-23 23:47:45	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	1,100	93¢	$1,023	0x06bdf9…
10-23 16:38:45	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	62¢	$31	0x0e722c…
10-23 14:27:23	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x3a0fb6…
10-23 13:52:48	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	663	99¢	$659	0x48508f…
10-23 13:48:30	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x4bac3e…
10-23 13:45:41	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x13bd90…
10-23 13:45:39	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x9692bc…
10-23 13:45:38	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,029	99¢	$2,016	0x860c6d…
10-23 13:27:08	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,036	99¢	$1,029	0xfcfc40…
10-23 13:23:33	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,000	99¢	$1,986	0xc196bb…
10-23 13:22:30	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	99¢	$992	0x4194bd…
10-23 13:21:59	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,000	99¢	$1,986	0x400fb5…
10-23 12:55:02	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	322	100¢	$322	0xe147d9…
10-23 08:24:21	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	95¢	$476	0x952155…
10-23 08:20:48	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	95¢	$110	0x024c80…
10-23 08:18:14	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	95¢	$162	0x0aa572…
10-23 08:17:02	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	95¢	$90	0xd57a9d…
10-23 08:17:02	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x5a7b6f…
10-23 07:54:41	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	680	96¢	$654	0xbc1fd1…
10-23 07:54:09	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	294	96¢	$283	0xf6799b…
10-23 07:54:09	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0xecc0cb…
10-23 07:51:38	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,132	97¢	$3,050	0xe453c8…
10-23 07:32:50	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	99¢	$48	0x0879a3…