Sophisticated-Outlet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.32K

Unrealized P&L

+$401

Hit rate

74.6%

Resolved

Trades

155

lifetime

Volume

$18.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$120

Open exposure

$5.26K

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-24

last 11-04 22:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Other

89% 80% +$3,593

Crypto

6% 67% -$301

Tech

4% 100% +$28

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 63 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	+2,744	$1,743	80¢	$2.2K	+$452	11-03 15:18
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	+3,969	$1,912	43¢	$1.7K	-$204	11-04 22:19
Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	Yes	+1,876	$1,207	72¢	$1.4K	+$152	11-03 16:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	21	$3.1K	3,727	0	+3,727	Yes	+$656	05-18 23:21
Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?	8	$3.0K	1,806	1,806	+0	Yes	-$15	10-13 00:09
Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	42	$2.2K	3,667	0	+3,667	Yes	+$1,507	10-13 01:08
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	8	$1.9K	3,969	0	+3,969	open	—	11-04 22:19
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	2	$1.7K	2,744	0	+2,744	open	—	11-03 15:18
Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	2	$1.2K	1,876	0	+1,876	open	—	11-03 16:02
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	4	$911	818	429	+388	Yes	+$122	10-13 00:27
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	2	$727	750	0	+750	No	+$23	05-21 15:21
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$557	571	0	+571	Yes	+$14	05-21 16:39
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	17	$495	1,334	0	+1,334	Yes	+$840	10-12 22:32
Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	4	$292	513	0	+513	Yes	+$221	10-12 18:15
Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026?	3	$290	439	0	+439	Yes	+$149	10-12 20:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 01:05 UTC	2	$234	138	137	+1	Down	+$39	03-06 01:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 00:20 UTC	1	$232	612	0	+612	Up	-$232	03-06 00:24
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$215	229	0	+229	Yes	+$14	02-24 15:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 01:00 UTC	2	$196	99	99	+0	Down	+$1	03-06 01:05
Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	1	$191	281	0	+281	Yes	+$90	10-12 17:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 00:50 UTC	2	$179	99	98	+1	Up	+$17	03-06 00:55
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	2	$168	180	0	+180	Yes	+$12	05-18 17:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 00:45 UTC	2	$157	82	82	+0	Up	+$5	03-06 00:50
Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	2	$147	98	98	+0	Yes	+$3	10-13 00:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 01:45 UTC	1	$136	154	0	+154	Up	-$136	03-06 01:49
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	2	$119	66	66	+0	Yes	+$1	10-12 20:53
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	9	$96	124	124	+0	No	-$13	05-22 01:20
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026?	4	$73	66	66	+0	No	+$0	10-14 01:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-06 00:15 UTC	2	$13	8	8	+0	Down	+$3	03-06 00:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 23:50 UTC	2	$12	7	7	+0	Up	+$2	03-05 23:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	2	$11	7	7	+0	Down	+$1	05-18 13:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	1	$5	15	0	+15	Down	-$5	05-17 21:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	1	$5	12	0	+12	Down	-$5	05-18 04:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 22:19:01	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	23¢	$2	0x2fd996…
11-04 22:19:01	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	221	23¢	$52	0x0f8c06…
11-03 16:08:01	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,478	54¢	$1,337	0xb93c55…
11-03 16:02:07	Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,276	66¢	$842	0xae890b…
11-03 15:19:57	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0xd739b2…
11-03 15:19:55	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	357	44¢	$157	0xf43684…
11-03 15:18:04	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,295	63¢	$816	0xdd120e…
11-03 14:17:13	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	44¢	$26	0xe128c6…
11-03 01:45:45	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	819	40¢	$328	0x3e644d…
11-03 01:45:43	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xba83c7…
11-03 01:45:22	Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	599	61¢	$366	0xa5ccd7…
11-03 01:44:49	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,448	64¢	$927	0x18e261…
10-14 01:36:34	Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	26	55¢	$14	0x979b0a…
10-13 21:49:39	Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x441a2f…
10-13 01:08:11	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	63¢	$50	0xc95cd0…
10-13 01:07:44	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x7448c1…
10-13 01:04:11	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x21229b…
10-13 01:03:42	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	64¢	$5	0x41c5e0…
10-13 00:58:00	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x8f2948…
10-13 00:54:54	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x6ffb14…
10-13 00:54:47	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x06c13d…
10-13 00:50:18	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	65¢	$19	0xe96ed8…
10-13 00:40:12	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0xbdb1b3…
10-13 00:34:12	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x15f409…
10-13 00:27:41	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	129	75¢	$97	0x056d8b…
10-13 00:20:32	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	58¢	$47	0x8cb569…
10-13 00:20:08	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	75¢	$82	0x54a55b…
10-13 00:17:45	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	357	57¢	$203	0x4fcb1d…
10-13 00:14:00	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	190	75¢	$142	0xc86b85…
10-13 00:12:21	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	56¢	$14	0x2bcd1f…
10-13 00:11:33	Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	98	77¢	$75	0xce217b…
10-13 00:09:39	Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x39801b…
10-12 22:42:30	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x1c6e1a…
10-12 22:32:03	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	69¢	$30	0xed5051…
10-12 22:31:35	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0xce3b81…
10-12 22:31:17	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x4b20ba…
10-12 22:29:29	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x5d4258…
10-12 22:29:20	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0xedc4ee…
10-12 22:26:50	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x0bcdc2…
10-12 22:20:09	Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	84¢	$52	0xfe7f1c…
10-12 22:19:57	Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	84¢	$50	0x3acc41…
10-12 21:02:30	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	297	72¢	$213	0x82257d…
10-12 20:57:59	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0xe685ff…
10-12 20:54:48	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x0c9ed8…
10-12 20:53:23	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	91¢	$60	0x56f17b…
10-12 20:52:59	Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0xb8cb77…
10-12 20:37:00	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	72¢	$25	0x6385f2…
10-12 20:32:44	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	810	70¢	$567	0x54fcdd…
10-12 20:32:17	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	410	75¢	$308	0xabf736…
10-12 20:32:17	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x77e34a…
10-12 20:27:44	Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	309	70¢	$216	0x6a1339…
10-12 19:48:03	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	48¢	$47	0x18a043…
10-12 19:46:32	Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	327	83¢	$271	0xf7cb99…
10-12 19:32:44	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	39¢	$98	0x8db131…
10-12 19:25:51	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x696fad…
10-12 19:25:45	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x3aa012…
10-12 19:05:15	Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,362	82¢	$1,116	0xec25e3…
10-12 19:04:50	Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	117	83¢	$98	0xcc42df…
10-12 18:54:54	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0xf3f68e…
10-12 18:54:54	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	37¢	$26	0xa051b6…
10-12 18:54:45	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	37¢	$37	0xd69d36…
10-12 18:53:51	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	45¢	$44	0x2bb45a…
10-12 18:48:29	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x3277ad…
10-12 18:47:48	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	268	45¢	$121	0x21faa2…
10-12 18:45:39	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	290	37¢	$107	0xfa6632…
10-12 18:45:39	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x56ce5e…
10-12 18:43:35	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x29edd6…
10-12 18:34:14	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	42¢	$43	0x136c89…
10-12 18:33:57	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	153	42¢	$64	0xaf49f4…
10-12 18:24:35	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	30¢	$24	0xe81b1f…
10-12 18:15:56	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	63¢	$66	0x1ec6c4…
10-12 18:14:54	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	258	38¢	$98	0x608801…
10-12 17:37:06	Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	66	55¢	$36	0x351745…
10-12 17:24:50	Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	281	68¢	$191	0xbdc10a…
10-12 17:23:12	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x3bd81b…
10-12 17:18:57	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	29¢	$35	0x46469a…
10-12 17:15:30	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	54¢	$98	0x42919e…
10-12 17:14:26	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x8f3c71…
10-12 17:10:42	Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	74¢	$72	0xefed33…
10-12 17:10:23	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0xb7f458…
10-12 17:06:03	Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	57¢	$46	0xe6876a…
10-12 17:05:57	Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0xe14620…
10-12 17:03:38	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x333496…
10-12 17:03:33	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	27¢	$19	0x1744bb…
10-12 16:58:21	Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,479	84¢	$1,242	0xe691e3…
10-12 16:58:09	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	89¢	$59	0xb7bc3f…
10-12 16:57:33	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	818	72¢	$589	0x19ac6c…
10-12 16:56:30	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x460f81…
10-12 16:56:26	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xde9e9f…
10-12 16:56:17	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x566a99…
10-12 16:54:12	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x797b9b…
10-12 16:53:51	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x747cd7…
10-12 16:53:45	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	57¢	$60	0x0f358d…
10-12 16:53:29	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	121	56¢	$68	0x259e47…
10-12 16:53:17	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xd0c2a6…
05-22 01:20:22	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	SELL	35	98¢	$35	0x730ad8…
05-21 21:00:08	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	25	76¢	$19	0x9c60d1…
05-21 21:00:05	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x0877ed…
05-21 20:43:55	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	SELL	8	16¢	$1	0xaa2923…
05-21 20:36:29	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x825531…