Pessimistic-Madam — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.12K

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

62.6%

Resolved

5,947

Trades

18,430

lifetime

Volume

$63.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$21

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-30

last 11-05 14:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 66 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 53% -$1,998

Other

1% 31% +$10

Sports

0% 0% -$114

Politics

0% 0% -$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 50 by November 30?	No	+20	$4	57¢	$12	+$7	11-05 05:29
Will the Central Bank of Chile increase the monetary policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	+20	$8	40¢	$8	$0	11-05 01:49
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in November?	No	+10	$5	16¢	$2	-$3	11-04 03:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	19	$359	442	372	+70	Team Spirit	+$40	08-23 13:30
ethereum up or down february 26 3pm et	27	$225	237	237	+0	Down	+$10	02-26 20:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 20:50 UTC	51	$216	504	502	+2	Up	+$14	02-24 20:54
bitcoin up or down february 26 3pm et	25	$193	257	245	+12	Down	-$2	02-26 20:43
bitcoin up or down february 24 3pm et	38	$185	244	230	+14	Up	+$11	02-24 20:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 20:30 UTC	41	$163	201	199	+1	Up	+$13	02-24 20:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 20:30 UTC	10	$148	183	125	+58	Down	+$58	02-06 20:41
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 17:30 UTC	18	$143	342	340	+2	Down	+$5	02-06 17:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 21:05 UTC	37	$143	241	241	+0	Up	-$4	02-24 21:08
bitcoin up or down february 27 11am et	20	$132	207	128	+79	Down	-$23	02-27 16:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-21 23:50 UTC	9	$130	196	196	+0	Down	+$24	02-21 23:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 21:10 UTC	28	$126	173	171	+2	Up	+$5	02-24 21:13
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 02:00 UTC	7	$116	134	133	+1	Down	+$14	02-07 02:08
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 00:45 UTC	26	$110	210	210	+0	Down	+$9	02-22 00:47
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 21:00 UTC	8	$106	151	150	+2	Up	+$17	02-06 21:12
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 08:30 UTC	4	$105	144	143	+1	Up	+$28	02-07 08:39
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$104	2,001	0	+2,001	No	-$104	06-24 11:38
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 21:00 UTC	6	$102	194	192	+1	Up	+$17	02-06 21:12
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 21:05 UTC	27	$101	137	136	+0	Up	-$2	02-24 21:08
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 10:00 UTC	9	$101	143	142	+0	Up	+$21	02-07 10:13
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 20:50 UTC	23	$100	178	177	+0	Up	+$12	02-24 20:54
ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-02-24 17:00 UTC	18	$94	166	166	+0	Down	-$8	02-24 20:58
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 19:00 UTC	6	$91	126	125	+1	Down	+$2	02-07 19:11
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 11:30 UTC	5	$90	173	172	+1	Down	+$12	02-07 11:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 02:00 UTC	4	$89	103	101	+1	Down	+$12	02-07 02:08
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 17:30 UTC	10	$82	268	267	+1	Down	+$12	02-06 17:41
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 11:25 UTC	5	$81	88	88	+0	Up	+$7	02-22 11:28
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 23:45 UTC	6	$80	68	67	+1	Down	+$3	02-07 23:55
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 11:10 UTC	16	$79	104	104	+0	Up	+$4	02-22 11:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 16:45 UTC	5	$79	112	87	+25	Up	+$46	02-06 16:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 14:56:00	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x928705…
11-05 13:45:06	XRP Up or Down - November 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	7	37¢	$3	0xefae65…
11-05 13:45:06	Solana Up or Down - November 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	7	35¢	$2	0x916c11…
11-05 13:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	9	29¢	$3	0x3f3519…
11-05 13:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x5c7df9…
11-05 05:29:57	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 50 by November 30?	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x6c3b83…
11-05 01:49:42	Will the Central Bank of Chile increase the monetary policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x2c3810…
11-04 12:50:55	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 45 by November 30?	No	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0xa41a58…
11-04 03:34:40	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in November?	No	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x434ebb…
11-04 03:34:37	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of November 2 2026?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x37b8d6…
11-04 01:17:18	Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 60 by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x130853…
11-03 16:22:21	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 50 by November 30?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x674ece…
08-23 13:30:27	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	TEAM VISION	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xc064af…
08-23 13:27:39	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	TEAM VISION	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x093ea3…
08-23 13:26:51	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	TEAM VISION	BUY	38	40¢	$15	0x3fe5cd…
08-23 13:26:39	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	Team Spirit	SELL	48	60¢	$29	0xa236cf…
08-23 13:22:12	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	Team Spirit	BUY	48	40¢	$19	0x392b52…
08-23 13:21:12	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	Team Spirit	SELL	71	43¢	$30	0xa602f2…
08-23 13:20:21	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	Team Spirit	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xe7ef76…
08-23 13:19:40	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	Team Spirit	BUY	42	45¢	$19	0xda5817…
08-23 13:17:28	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	TEAM VISION	SELL	114	50¢	$57	0x5549b9…
08-23 13:08:45	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	TEAM VISION	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x1f0305…
08-23 13:05:57	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	TEAM VISION	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x991216…
08-23 13:05:28	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	Team Spirit	SELL	48	69¢	$33	0xd3feed…
08-23 13:03:21	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	Team Spirit	BUY	48	42¢	$20	0x73e931…
08-23 13:01:16	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	TEAM VISION	SELL	40	51¢	$20	0x640957…
08-23 12:56:43	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	TEAM VISION	BUY	40	38¢	$15	0x3d56d9…
08-23 12:56:03	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	Team Spirit	SELL	34	58¢	$20	0x42e8a8…
08-23 12:43:49	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	Team Spirit	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xe44571…
08-23 12:28:18	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	TEAM VISION	SELL	18	56¢	$10	0x819f43…
08-23 12:15:00	Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	TEAM VISION	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0x5c2706…
08-23 02:02:03	dota2 ty ts8 2026 08 22 game1	Team Yandex	SELL	13	39¢	$5	0xd03d54…
08-23 01:05:34	Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	27¢	$2	0x0929f2…
08-23 00:15:22	Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	27¢	$2	0x1e07ba…
08-23 00:14:27	Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x221a23…
08-23 00:11:24	dota2 ty ts8 2026 08 22 game1	Team Yandex	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xcd4388…
07-31 15:19:03	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 47m?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x139626…
07-29 12:27:17	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 47m?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xbf2e94…
07-29 12:26:32	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 47m?	No	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x43dd7e…
07-29 11:20:35	Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 47m?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x8e1e80…
07-18 23:46:40	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xd038c6…
06-24 11:38:19	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,001	5¢	$104	0x5cd504…
05-25 12:48:59	Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25?	Yes	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0xbb4c49…
05-25 10:22:14	Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25?	Yes	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0x7a74d6…
05-25 07:38:02	Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x6dc8a6…
05-25 07:37:55	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 25?	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x55f6b9…
05-25 07:37:53	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 25?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x84efc7…
05-25 00:03:00	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 25?	Yes	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0x36e69c…
05-24 23:23:04	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 25?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x27c46b…
05-24 23:10:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x6104e4…
05-24 22:24:53	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 25?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xf474a7…
05-24 22:10:30	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 25?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x4f8695…
05-24 22:08:42	Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xc506f0…
05-24 22:00:16	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 25?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x55c8a0…
05-24 22:00:13	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 25?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xaa65d3…
05-24 21:56:20	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 25?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb46746…
05-24 20:56:53	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 25?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0x567721…
05-24 19:36:06	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 25?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x0d6000…
05-24 05:21:36	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 24?	Yes	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x124424…
05-24 05:20:54	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 24?	Yes	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x949750…
05-24 05:20:45	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 24?	Yes	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0x9f3eae…
05-24 01:40:43	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 24?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0xcb6db7…
05-24 01:40:33	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 24?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x6ddec1…
05-24 01:19:22	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 24?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0x5f4993…
05-24 01:02:57	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 24?	Yes	BUY	4	14¢	$1	0x17406d…
05-24 00:55:17	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on May 24?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x834daf…
05-24 00:45:06	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 24?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xeeb0d5…
05-24 00:33:16	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 24?	Yes	BUY	2	6¢	$0	0x81ba82…
05-24 00:28:13	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 24?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xfcc32b…
05-24 00:28:13	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 24?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x6024d1…
05-24 00:28:13	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 24?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x235fbd…
05-23 08:22:43	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	17	4¢	$1	0x2409bc…
05-23 07:55:00	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	17	4¢	$1	0x55930c…
05-22 23:04:03	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 23?	Yes	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0xe130f7…
05-22 23:02:22	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 23?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0xec05f7…
05-22 23:02:20	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 23?	Yes	SELL	6	27¢	$2	0x75d845…
05-22 19:24:45	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 23?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x283f85…
05-22 19:01:21	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 23?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0xe0217a…
05-22 18:14:12	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0xfaf1fe…
05-22 18:05:25	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xb51dca…
05-22 17:37:46	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x145ee2…
05-22 16:46:35	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 23?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x308c75…
05-22 16:30:27	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	2	25¢	$1	0x1a2873…
05-22 16:30:25	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xc53535…
05-22 16:22:50	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 23?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x0fbac6…
05-22 07:43:23	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 22?	Yes	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0x4cfa4a…
05-22 07:43:17	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 22?	Yes	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x253d20…
05-21 23:01:49	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 22?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x2d6050…
05-21 23:01:39	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 22?	Yes	BUY	9	17¢	$1	0x7b5dec…
05-21 22:53:44	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 22?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x36dc04…
05-05 14:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa2b6f6…
05-05 14:08:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd56228…
05-05 02:19:18	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	SELL	14	3¢	$0	0x31a193…
05-05 02:16:16	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	22¢	$2	0x75b2d8…
05-05 01:56:52	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	SELL	8	17¢	$1	0xf9d212…
05-05 01:56:52	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	SELL	12	14¢	$2	0xdf7c9e…
05-05 01:54:50	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0xefb31a…
05-05 01:54:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0x961180…
05-05 01:54:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0x2fbd73…
05-05 01:53:34	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	SELL	13	12¢	$2	0x2aa58f…