High-Level-Proposal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$37

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

48.8%

Resolved

284

Trades

775

lifetime

Volume

$4.93K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$350

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-09

last 10-24 13:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Other

70% 43% -$33

Politics

18% 67% -$5

Crypto

9% 18% +$18

Tech

2% 0% -$16

Sports

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (14) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No		-350	-$167	90¢	$-317	-$150	05-31 02:41
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes		-350	-$182	10¢	$-33	+$149	05-31 02:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	6	$380	650	650	+0	Yes	-$16	05-30 14:59
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	7	$349	0	700	-700	open	—	05-31 02:41
atp mensik zverev 2026 06 05	19	$349	684	684	+0	Alexander Zverev	-$7	06-05 11:40
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 5?	17	$331	176	176	+0	No	+$18	06-05 10:37
cs2 nrg big5 2026 06 05	32	$328	247	247	+0	BIG	+$108	06-05 21:20
dota2 lgd liquid 2026 06 05	14	$300	234	234	+0	LGD Gaming	+$51	06-05 12:57
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	2	$118	200	200	+0	open	—	10-24 00:24
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	7	$116	128	128	+0	Yes	-$16	10-23 20:57
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 4?	2	$106	53	53	+0	No	+$0	06-02 23:28
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 3?	2	$106	94	94	+0	Yes	+$77	06-03 03:21
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	4	$99	53	53	+0	open	—	10-24 01:42
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	5	$99	57	57	+0	open	—	10-24 13:14
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	4	$99	57	57	+0	open	—	10-24 13:13
dota2 ty bb4 2026 06 06	7	$94	114	93	+21	Team Yandex	-$25	06-06 13:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-09 04:30 UTC	2	$75	117	0	+117	Up	+$42	04-09 04:34
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$52	29	29	+0	No	+$2	10-24 13:13
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	2	$50	27	27	+0	open	—	10-24 13:13
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$50	27	27	+0	open	—	10-24 01:42
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	2	$50	27	27	+0	open	—	10-24 01:42
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$50	27	27	+0	open	—	10-24 01:10
Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?	2	$50	29	29	+0	open	—	10-24 13:13
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	2	$50	28	28	+0	open	—	10-24 13:13
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	2	$50	29	29	+0	open	—	10-24 13:13
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	2	$49	27	27	+0	open	—	10-24 01:10
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	2	$49	27	27	+0	open	—	10-24 01:42
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	2	$49	29	29	+0	open	—	10-24 13:13
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?	2	$48	28	28	+0	open	—	10-24 13:14
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$47	27	27	+0	No	-$3	10-24 13:13
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 5?	50	$40	144	0	+144	No	-$40	06-05 07:08
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5?	7	$39	127	41	+86	No	-$24	06-05 05:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 13:14:02	Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?	No	SELL	28	81¢	$23	0xcf7086…
10-24 13:14:00	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	28	87¢	$25	0x42875c…
10-24 13:13:59	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	28	86¢	$24	0x10518f…
10-24 13:13:57	Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	29	84¢	$24	0x5bc108…
10-24 13:13:56	Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?	No	SELL	29	86¢	$25	0xb2fe1f…
10-24 13:13:54	Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	SELL	27	94¢	$25	0x864c17…
10-24 13:13:51	Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	SELL	29	86¢	$25	0xb7d663…
10-24 13:13:50	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	27	83¢	$22	0xb6ac3f…
10-24 13:13:50	Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	28	87¢	$25	0x823175…
10-24 13:13:48	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	29	91¢	$27	0x2d03d1…
10-24 01:57:39	Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?	No	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0x41298f…
10-24 01:57:39	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0x1234f4…
10-24 01:57:38	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0xf3a222…
10-24 01:57:38	Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	29	87¢	$25	0x22fefa…
10-24 01:57:36	Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?	No	BUY	29	87¢	$25	0xccb415…
10-24 01:57:36	Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x9a53c7…
10-24 01:42:21	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	23	87¢	$20	0x206bd2…
10-24 01:42:12	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0xb1daa9…
10-24 01:42:11	Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	27	91¢	$25	0x47c075…
10-24 01:42:09	Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	27	93¢	$25	0x4d1425…
10-24 01:42:08	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	SELL	27	91¢	$24	0xce1d7e…
10-24 01:42:08	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	28	86¢	$24	0x7baba1…
10-24 01:42:08	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	27	91¢	$25	0x4f83f3…
10-24 01:31:56	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0x7b3e4b…
10-24 01:31:54	Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0xa398b0…
10-24 01:31:54	Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x546b37…
10-24 01:31:53	Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	BUY	29	87¢	$25	0x7b228b…
10-24 01:31:53	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x4b79e1…
10-24 01:31:51	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0xf892ac…
10-24 01:31:51	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0xa1eaca…
10-24 01:10:23	Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	27	93¢	$25	0x11063b…
10-24 01:10:21	Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	91¢	$24	0x050688…
10-24 01:10:20	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	27	91¢	$25	0xc73b8f…
10-24 01:00:35	Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x784cab…
10-24 01:00:33	Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x3616a2…
10-24 00:38:09	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0xdb327f…
10-24 00:38:08	Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0xa668e9…
10-24 00:35:32	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0xb2bbfc…
10-24 00:35:32	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0x3c0ef7…
10-24 00:24:20	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	SELL	200	28¢	$56	0x071941…
10-24 00:23:41	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	No	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0xdbc3e0…
10-23 20:57:38	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	23	38¢	$9	0xab0f8f…
10-23 20:57:15	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	35	45¢	$16	0x02bcfe…
10-23 20:52:11	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x39fc5f…
10-23 20:52:05	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0x4ec6bc…
10-23 16:00:47	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	70	37¢	$26	0x818c38…
10-23 15:18:18	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0x8ba006…
10-23 15:16:38	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xd3b600…
10-23 15:14:59	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on October 23?	No	BUY	6	55¢	$4	0x822ca1…
10-23 15:14:57	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on October 23?	No	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xdd935a…
10-23 15:14:56	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on October 23?	No	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0xd3382a…
10-23 08:09:51	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	14	87¢	$12	0x85e4c2…
10-23 07:30:20	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	18	69¢	$12	0x508d5c…
10-23 06:12:15	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	14	88¢	$12	0xe12db6…
10-23 06:10:47	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x71588f…
10-23 05:43:14	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0xcfd7cd…
10-23 05:15:35	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	0	69¢	$0	0x0d3821…
10-23 05:15:30	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0xd79c3d…
10-23 05:14:53	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x407936…
10-23 05:03:50	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xe86a31…
10-23 05:03:11	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0xfdcc09…
10-23 05:03:03	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x42e386…
10-23 03:21:48	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	17	68¢	$12	0xf3e9f0…
10-23 03:21:42	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x31bc6e…
10-22 22:27:45	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0x7933b7…
10-22 22:27:27	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	6	95¢	$5	0x3d92a0…
10-22 22:25:33	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0xec9bdd…
10-22 22:22:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x2d64ac…
10-22 17:16:09	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xbe68f8…
10-22 17:16:08	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	4	89¢	$4	0xc9b392…
10-22 16:08:41	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0xf17569…
10-22 12:56:06	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	18	85¢	$15	0x7fc28d…
10-22 12:28:27	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	19	80¢	$15	0x21d133…
10-22 07:38:50	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x2c8abb…
10-22 07:33:29	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xca455b…
10-22 06:04:47	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x99c053…
10-22 05:59:13	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xbc94f3…
10-22 04:38:47	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x211f1f…
10-22 01:51:05	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x4b2b15…
10-22 01:44:44	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x173c62…
06-21 11:22:25	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xe605cd…
06-21 11:22:25	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x1913e9…
06-21 10:32:17	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x41f06b…
06-21 10:21:17	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xc4e256…
06-21 10:21:17	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xb3fa2c…
06-21 10:21:17	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x361e88…
06-21 10:21:16	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x4f106c…
06-21 10:21:16	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x490a55…
06-21 10:21:16	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x47817b…
06-21 10:21:16	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x22c94f…
06-20 14:56:59	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x1c6102…
06-20 14:56:38	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xbc327d…
06-20 01:48:56	Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	203	0¢	$0	0xbc5fb9…
06-20 01:48:43	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xcea7ad…
06-20 01:48:28	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0x9e5c10…
06-20 01:45:41	Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xf6ed05…
06-20 01:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xa6c76b…
06-20 01:44:56	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xbfd0d3…
06-20 01:44:53	Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	203	0¢	$1	0x9853b1…
06-20 01:44:52	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xb7c82f…