Taut-Contingency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$59

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.5%

Resolved

Trades

113

lifetime

Volume

$640

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-23

last 06-19 15:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Other

34% 25% -$66

Crypto

28% 24% -$11

Politics

26% 50% +$49

Sports

12% 25% -$31

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-19).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$87	74	74	+0	No	+$40	05-30 15:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	4	$60	675	53	+622	Yes	+$28	06-17 14:30
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2	2	$52	28	28	+0	BBL Esports	+$5	05-31 19:30
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	1	$25	49	0	+49	No	-$25	06-18 16:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	3	$25	22	22	+0	Up	+$19	05-26 20:28
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5	1	$20	45	0	+45	Under	-$20	05-24 16:18
val edg1 pr1 2026 06 19 game1	2	$17	12	12	+0	EDward Gaming	+$7	06-19 15:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	3	$17	20	14	+6	Down	+$9	05-26 20:09
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	1	$16	25	0	+25	Yes	+$9	06-18 18:27
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	1	$15	1,093	0	+1,093	No	-$15	05-31 19:36
Spurs vs. Thunder	3	$15	164	0	+164	Spurs	-$15	05-31 02:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	2	$13	12	12	+0	Down	+$9	05-26 20:19
Knicks vs. Spurs	1	$13	35	0	+35	Knicks	+$22	06-03 13:18
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2	1	$13	16	0	+16	NRG	+$3	05-31 19:45
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?	1	$10	40	0	+40	No	-$10	05-30 21:14
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026?	1	$10	43	0	+43	No	-$10	06-13 15:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	2	$9	7	7	+0	Up	+$5	05-26 19:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	2	$8	6	6	+0	Down	+$4	05-26 22:14
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	1	$8	17	0	+17	Paper Rex	-$8	06-15 19:04
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	1	$8	38	0	+38	No	-$8	06-19 02:12
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	1	$8	38	0	+38	No	-$8	06-19 01:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	2	$8	7	7	+0	Down	+$4	05-26 19:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	2	$7	5	5	+0	Down	+$3	05-26 19:59
val edg1 pr1 2026 06 19	1	$7	38	0	+38	Paper Rex	-$7	06-19 15:41
nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	1	$7	19	0	+19	Knicks	-$7	06-14 03:13
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	2	$6	5	5	+0	No	+$4	05-31 10:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	1	$6	12	0	+12	Down	-$6	05-26 22:35
val edg1 pr1 2026 06 19 game3 round total 21pt5	1	$5	10	0	+10	Under	-$5	06-19 15:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$5	62	0	+62	Yes	-$5	06-15 05:36
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5	1	$5	13	0	+13	Over	-$5	05-31 01:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-19 15:41:07	val edg1 pr1 2026 06 19	EDward Gaming	BUY	38	18¢	$7	0x85aaef…
06-19 15:15:55	val edg1 pr1 2026 06 19 game3 round total 21pt5	Over	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x2d7592…
06-19 15:07:28	val edg1 pr1 2026 06 19 game2	EDward Gaming	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x210320…
06-19 15:01:35	val edg1 pr1 2026 06 19 game1	EDward Gaming	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x6c4f76…
06-19 13:57:10	val edg1 pr1 2026 06 19 game1	EDward Gaming	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x926dc2…
06-19 02:12:13	Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	38	21¢	$8	0x323f1f…
06-19 01:47:28	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	BUY	38	21¢	$8	0xef53dd…
06-18 18:27:52	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	BUY	25	63¢	$16	0xb02034…
06-18 16:03:47	Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x79434a…
06-18 16:03:20	Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x4682d5…
06-17 14:30:29	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x8455f5…
06-16 20:32:34	Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x71c0c6…
06-16 19:53:29	Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x15cf05…
06-16 18:16:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x7179f6…
06-16 18:15:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xb56669…
06-16 17:56:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 17:55 UTC	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x582021…
06-16 17:51:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 17:50 UTC	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x68b19d…
06-16 17:50:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 17:50 UTC	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x9d7bb2…
06-16 17:14:25	val vit fut1 2026 06 16	FUT Esports	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x0133fd…
06-15 19:04:27	Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	Team Vitality	BUY	17	46¢	$8	0xbd2f1b…
06-15 18:20:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	122	4¢	$5	0x3b1a7b…
06-15 18:09:57	val pr1 vit 2026 06 15 game2	Team Vitality	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x7ad040…
06-15 05:36:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xb80785…
06-15 05:35:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	84¢	$44	0x7b1d94…
06-14 03:13:33	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Spurs	BUY	19	35¢	$7	0x472462…
06-13 15:30:15	Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x2ea558…
06-13 15:20:43	Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x8e7546…
06-04 13:45:28	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or higher on June 5?	Yes	BUY	103	2¢	$2	0x1f2f4e…
06-04 13:45:22	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	69	3¢	$2	0x0efbef…
06-04 13:45:15	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	46	6¢	$3	0xdfa289…
06-04 13:44:42	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xc82193…
06-03 13:18:32	Knicks vs. Spurs	Knicks	BUY	35	37¢	$13	0x9a1d77…
06-02 20:03:48	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xa0c32f…
06-02 19:58:52	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2?	No	BUY	11	6¢	$1	0x7e19ee…
06-01 22:45:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x569a64…
05-31 19:45:18	Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2	NRG	BUY	16	79¢	$13	0xb5b1c0…
05-31 19:36:52	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,093	1¢	$15	0x9f87f3…
05-31 19:30:48	Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2	BBL Esports	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x91e41d…
05-31 16:38:43	Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2	BBL Esports	BUY	28	83¢	$23	0xd1986a…
05-31 10:19:07	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9cfcd2…
05-31 02:43:11	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xb983ff…
05-31 02:42:34	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5	Under	BUY	73	7¢	$5	0xc03558…
05-31 02:23:16	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x2ac258…
05-31 01:51:12	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xee3546…
05-31 01:13:10	Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5	Under	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xca43d8…
05-30 21:36:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x8ca052…
05-30 21:14:27	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x2c49cd…
05-30 15:29:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	74	86¢	$64	0x9d3e80…
05-26 22:35:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	12	51¢	$6	0x247569…
05-26 22:32:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xb5b1be…
05-26 22:30:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xbd8e00…
05-26 22:24:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x12d1ea…
05-26 22:19:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x5ceabe…
05-26 22:14:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xb90a91…
05-26 22:14:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0x0486ba…
05-26 22:01:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xb83bdd…
05-26 22:01:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xeb3bab…
05-26 21:35:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xf41b64…
05-26 21:34:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x22e8fc…
05-26 21:28:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x84b13c…
05-26 21:22:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xd2cd44…
05-26 21:22:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x7b3543…
05-26 21:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xa67699…
05-26 21:16:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xd2793b…
05-26 21:11:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x5fa78a…
05-26 21:09:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xfa5360…
05-26 21:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xea719d…
05-26 21:03:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xf72d00…
05-26 20:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x8b3357…
05-26 20:59:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x562d43…
05-26 20:57:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xba0ba8…
05-26 20:54:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0xf43c10…
05-26 20:48:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x01c4d1…
05-26 20:42:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x082144…
05-26 20:37:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xa895f5…
05-26 20:34:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x38b022…
05-26 20:34:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2208ee…
05-26 20:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xca8e2d…
05-26 20:28:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	22	96¢	$22	0xa00447…
05-26 20:27:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	17	13¢	$2	0x87e9a7…
05-26 20:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	38	5¢	$2	0x32aca8…
05-26 20:22:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x8891bf…
05-26 20:21:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xfdb9c8…
05-26 20:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	SELL	12	89¢	$11	0x959ecd…
05-26 20:17:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x0b6197…
05-26 20:13:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xaa0dab…
05-26 20:09:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	SELL	14	89¢	$13	0x28f72b…
05-26 20:09:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x1f1e3d…
05-26 20:06:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x8e4f2f…
05-26 20:04:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xc7c827…
05-26 19:59:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x7cbedb…
05-26 19:57:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xea559f…
05-26 19:53:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x1d7d7e…
05-26 19:51:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xfeef45…
05-26 19:49:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	7	86¢	$6	0x4f9bed…
05-26 19:48:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x4466a0…
05-26 19:42:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x55bc8e…
05-26 19:41:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xa02b2f…
05-26 19:38:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x6dea5e…
05-26 19:31:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x9b4f50…