Optimistic-Band — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$267

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

57.8%

Resolved

Trades

262

lifetime

Volume

$2.31K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-04 22:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Other

57% 59% +$6

Politics

40% 68% -$282

Sports

3% 50% +$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	No		-6	-$5	55¢	$-3	+$1	05-06 16:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$250	0	500	-500	Yes	-$249	06-12 11:15
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	12	$159	83	83	+0	No	+$6	03-24 11:02
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	16	$152	116	116	+0	No	-$6	03-21 02:23
us strikes iran by february 16 2026 732 528	6	$118	86	45	+41	No	+$2	02-15 21:13
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	5	$99	62	62	+0	Yes	-$22	03-09 19:34
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	4	$76	121	121	+0	No	+$5	05-16 15:49
will usdbrl hit 6pt25 high in 2026	3	$72	87	0	+87	open	—	06-17 19:25
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	11	$69	45	45	+0	No	-$2	03-30 00:14
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	17	$67	88	88	+0	Yes	-$3	03-30 15:56
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 728 921 637 263	5	$59	80	0	+80	Yes	+$21	03-10 02:15
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$58	1,482	1,982	-500	No	+$17	07-07 02:35
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	4	$57	67	0	+67	No	+$11	05-23 22:24
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	8	$56	37	37	+0	No	+$3	03-30 12:39
will crude oil cl hit high 95 by march 13 955 782 768	8	$55	59	59	+0	Yes	+$3	03-12 01:16
will usdbrl hit 7pt25 high in 2026	1	$54	58	0	+58	open	—	06-18 19:59
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	9	$50	562	0	+562	Yes	-$50	10-04 22:38
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	7	$46	31	31	+0	Yes	+$3	03-30 12:45
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	8	$44	33	33	+0	No	-$1	03-16 15:31
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by march 13 992 833 133	3	$42	27	27	+0	No	+$2	03-09 21:03
will the us next strike iran on february 20 2026 et	4	$42	32	10	+22	No	+$1	02-21 01:02
will the us next strike iran on february 17 2026 et	5	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$0	02-16 02:44
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by march 13 793 685 412	4	$38	45	45	+0	No	+$18	03-12 00:51
will crude oil cl hit low 85 by march 13 213 135 835	11	$33	107	107	+0	Yes	-$19	03-10 19:23
will usdbrl hit 4pt25 low in 2026	4	$33	37	0	+37	open	—	06-26 13:12
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by march 13 518 745 483	3	$33	23	23	+0	No	+$3	03-09 21:02
will the us next strike iran on february 18 2026 et	4	$32	33	0	+33	No	+$0	02-18 23:16
will the us next strike iran on february 22 2026 et	4	$31	32	0	+32	No	+$1	02-22 18:47
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	8	$31	40	40	+0	Yes	-$11	03-09 19:26
will the us next strike iran on february 23 2026 et	1	$31	32	0	+32	No	+$1	02-22 18:45
will the us next strike iran on february 24 2026 et	1	$30	31	0	+31	No	+$1	02-22 18:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-04 22:38:07	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x37240c…
10-04 22:37:28	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2f96dc…
10-04 21:40:31	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xafbdf2…
10-04 21:33:31	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	150	7¢	$10	0xf6e13d…
10-04 20:53:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x8a5f59…
10-04 20:51:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	35	19¢	$7	0xc0e0c5…
10-04 20:49:40	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	30	24¢	$7	0x4904b4…
10-04 20:35:25	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x365ec4…
10-04 20:22:31	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x690422…
07-07 02:35:34	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	982	2¢	$24	0x189d20…
07-06 19:05:31	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,000	1¢	$14	0xade7d4…
07-01 18:19:29	Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	87	0¢	$0	0x381237…
06-26 13:12:43	will usdbrl hit 4pt25 low in 2026	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x90dc9e…
06-22 15:51:59	will usdbrl hit 4pt25 low in 2026	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x519a3c…
06-22 01:01:23	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	382	1¢	$4	0x111dca…
06-21 21:05:13	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf3df25…
06-21 06:43:50	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	2¢	$16	0x301b09…
06-20 16:06:52	will usdbrl hit 6pt5 high in 2026	No	BUY	9	80¢	$7	0xe2a199…
06-19 15:09:16	will usdbrl hit 4pt25 low in 2026	No	BUY	18	89¢	$16	0x48c638…
06-19 15:08:16	will usdbrl hit 6pt75 high in 2026	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x4c0ebf…
06-18 20:19:10	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x79fb6f…
06-18 19:59:23	will usdbrl hit 7pt25 high in 2026	No	BUY	58	92¢	$54	0x6d6f6d…
06-18 15:04:22	will usdbrl hit 4 low in 2026	No	BUY	18	77¢	$14	0x6dd203…
06-18 13:48:32	will usdbrl hit 4 low in 2026	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x462969…
06-17 19:28:56	will usdbrl hit 4pt25 low in 2026	No	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0x0502eb…
06-17 19:25:40	will usdbrl hit 6pt25 high in 2026	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x852295…
06-17 19:21:35	will usdbrl hit 6pt25 high in 2026	No	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0x65dcf6…
06-17 19:20:38	will usdbrl hit 6pt25 high in 2026	No	BUY	71	83¢	$59	0xdcd345…
06-12 11:15:04	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	450	51¢	$229	0x6225c5…
05-23 22:24:21	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	9	84¢	$8	0xe53f59…
05-18 17:43:02	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x3935e4…
05-16 15:49:40	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	121	33¢	$40	0x73d544…
05-15 11:06:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x3e3146…
05-13 19:04:44	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x6a61a5…
05-13 19:00:46	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x5d3716…
05-13 18:26:12	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	50	42¢	$21	0x27ff87…
05-06 16:40:28	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	No	SELL	6	78¢	$5	0x9e5747…
05-03 13:34:12	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x6c370b…
03-30 15:56:21	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	SELL	33	4¢	$1	0x2d424d…
03-30 15:45:45	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x7966ff…
03-30 12:45:26	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	23	79¢	$18	0xdcf378…
03-30 12:45:06	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x868e1e…
03-30 12:39:36	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	7	80¢	$5	0x52c24a…
03-30 00:14:44	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	SELL	6	43¢	$3	0x5f69af…
03-29 23:55:04	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x69e23f…
03-28 19:10:30	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	30	80¢	$24	0xd70be4…
03-28 17:46:27	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7	79¢	$6	0x4b600c…
03-27 10:51:51	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x839bdc…
03-26 11:39:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xccc90f…
03-24 11:02:55	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	77	99¢	$77	0x65fa9a…
03-22 19:11:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x093d1b…
03-21 02:28:01	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x27793f…
03-21 02:23:31	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	No	BUY	9	29¢	$3	0x487ba3…
03-21 02:23:05	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	SELL	6	22¢	$1	0x763dc9…
03-21 02:22:35	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	SELL	4	39¢	$1	0x8c293c…
03-19 11:50:33	Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xf538e0…
03-19 02:55:27	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$1	0xc0663d…
03-19 02:54:17	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x325890…
03-19 02:49:37	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x77a937…
03-19 02:47:09	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xd3176e…
03-18 21:34:19	no change in the selic rate after bank of brazils march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb05724…
03-16 17:11:37	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0xe2ce0c…
03-16 17:06:43	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x4b8c2f…
03-16 17:06:25	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0x3badc9…
03-16 16:59:41	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0x5ce56f…
03-16 16:58:49	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x223c3e…
03-16 16:54:55	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x2a7bdf…
03-16 16:54:01	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	9	92¢	$8	0x601a76…
03-16 16:27:17	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0x913e7a…
03-16 16:24:37	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	34	92¢	$32	0xe01ca5…
03-16 15:31:55	will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	No	SELL	7	79¢	$5	0x379d03…
03-16 15:31:35	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0xd3a736…
03-15 22:43:43	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0x62431b…
03-15 22:43:23	will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	No	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0x5db6ba…
03-13 20:36:11	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0x092f0b…
03-13 19:58:37	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x128314…
03-13 18:18:35	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	0	63¢	$0	0x91baf9…
03-13 18:17:09	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x304387…
03-13 17:08:53	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x823641…
03-13 17:08:41	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x99a974…
03-12 01:16:35	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by march 13 955 782 768	Yes	SELL	8	67¢	$5	0x94bc22…
03-12 00:51:11	will crude oil cl hit low 80 by march 13 793 685 412	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x43780b…
03-11 18:34:49	will crude oil cl hit low 80 by march 13 793 685 412	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x756def…
03-11 02:41:19	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	SELL	9	63¢	$5	0x8c7ab6…
03-11 02:34:15	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x6c6f07…
03-11 02:31:59	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	BUY	4	63¢	$2	0x2bad2f…
03-10 19:23:29	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by march 13 213 135 835	No	SELL	95	1¢	$1	0x95b825…
03-10 18:22:07	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by march 13 213 135 835	No	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x6ccf0d…
03-10 17:43:19	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	SELL	12	72¢	$9	0x6e8a12…
03-10 17:15:41	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by march 13 213 135 835	No	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x4f6b76…
03-10 15:01:11	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by march 13 213 135 835	No	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x02a536…
03-10 14:58:09	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by march 13 213 135 835	No	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xef41b0…
03-10 12:55:29	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x49b535…
03-10 12:03:09	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xbae0eb…
03-10 11:51:43	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x92de36…
03-10 02:23:45	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x55715c…
03-10 02:23:35	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0xefef5c…
03-10 02:15:13	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by march 13 213 135 835	No	BUY	25	23¢	$6	0xa77287…
03-10 02:15:01	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 728 921 637 263	Yes	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xb652b4…
03-10 02:13:37	will crude oil cl hit low 85 by end of march 728 921 637 263	Yes	BUY	18	73¢	$13	0xbff3e2…