Live-Ambition — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$161

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

61.1%

Resolved

3,413

Trades

12,311

lifetime

Volume

$544.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$44

Open exposure

$376

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-30

last 10-30 15:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 223 days

Categories

Other

70% 48% +$3

Crypto

26% 78% -$203

Sports

2% 60% +$386

Politics

1% 47% -$38

Tech

1% 40% +$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 219 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	-205	-$200	98¢	$-202	-$2	05-12 20:10
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	No	+93	$94	99¢	$93	-$2	10-30 15:52
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?	No	-82	-$80	98¢	$-80	+$0	05-04 01:47
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	Yes	+93	$3	1¢	$1	-$2	05-21 04:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15?	29	$14.1K	8,903	8,903	+0	Down	+$2,766	05-15 20:17
will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	7	$10.0K	5,212	5,212	+0	No	-$10	07-08 17:58
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 15?	6	$9.8K	4,975	4,975	+0	Down	-$10	05-15 16:14
wti closes above 69 on july 8 2026	9	$9.6K	5,072	5,072	+0	Yes	-$13	07-08 08:41
cz binance of tweets april 14 april 21 2026 200plus	10	$8.7K	4,533	4,200	+333	No	+$0	04-21 09:15
spy closes above 740 on july 7 2026	37	$7.6K	4,232	4,232	+0	Yes	+$10	07-07 13:10
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 4?	34	$7.2K	7,357	5,807	+1,550	No	-$1,493	05-04 16:20
ethereum above 1900 on march 16	14	$7.0K	3,481	3,481	+0	Yes	-$3	03-16 04:38
will ng dip to 2 40 in july 2026	10	$6.8K	3,577	3,577	+0	No	-$3	07-10 10:30
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?	15	$5.8K	3,452	3,452	+0	No	-$52	05-08 15:06
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	31	$5.8K	6,248	5,037	+1,211	Down	+$1,902	05-04 16:20
spy closes above 735 on july 9 2026	10	$5.7K	2,990	2,992	-2	Yes	+$28	07-09 14:17
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 20?	16	$5.5K	5,114	5,114	+0	Yes	-$442	05-20 13:37
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 15?	13	$5.0K	6,025	6,825	-800	No	-$3,178	05-15 19:13
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 27?	26	$4.9K	4,356	2,669	+1,687	Yes	+$811	05-27 20:22
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 19?	25	$4.9K	4,114	3,251	+864	No	+$305	05-19 18:54
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20?	13	$4.6K	4,038	4,038	+0	Up	+$527	05-20 09:47
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12?	8	$4.5K	2,293	2,293	+0	Down	+$35	05-12 22:22
wti closes above 78 on july 13 2026	26	$4.4K	2,483	2,274	+208	Yes	-$191	07-13 18:13
spy closes above 735 on june 10 2026	29	$4.2K	5,884	2,329	+3,555	No	-$434	06-10 11:27
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 26?	69	$3.8K	2,436	2,236	+200	Up	-$14	05-26 02:04
wti closes above 84 on july 15 2026	11	$3.6K	1,915	1,915	+0	No	+$13	07-15 22:20
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 18?	29	$3.5K	2,791	2,791	+0	No	+$162	05-18 20:01
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 8?	11	$3.5K	2,783	2,180	+603	Yes	+$529	05-08 13:47
wti closes above 87 on july 24 2026	8	$3.5K	1,803	1,803	+0	Yes	-$2	07-24 03:03
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 3?	54	$3.3K	3,362	3,131	+232	No	-$87	06-03 13:35
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11?	9	$3.3K	3,329	0	+3,329	Up	+$65	05-11 19:59
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 15?	3	$3.2K	3,734	0	+3,734	Yes	+$556	05-15 17:48
will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on march 4	26	$3.1K	1,530	1,529	+0	No	+$2	03-04 15:16
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 13?	18	$3.0K	3,537	3,537	+0	Yes	+$78	05-13 12:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 15:52:39	StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	No	SELL	245	99¢	$242	0xe5f73b…
10-30 15:51:40	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	91	96¢	$87	0x826251…
10-30 15:49:15	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x5c5306…
10-30 14:39:21	StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	No	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0x4e0153…
10-30 00:17:28	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	61	97¢	$59	0x909ae5…
10-29 23:48:48	LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Top Esports	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0xd02d78…
10-29 23:29:40	LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Top Esports	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x4a051c…
10-24 23:59:24	LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	T1	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0xe68599…
10-24 23:00:23	LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	T1	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x437127…
10-24 22:36:00	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Gen.G	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xee1d34…
10-24 04:12:09	Rockets vs. Spurs	Rockets	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x78567d…
10-22 03:58:54	Warriors vs. Lakers	Lakers	SELL	74	100¢	$74	0xc48d42…
10-22 03:58:48	Warriors vs. Lakers	Lakers	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x301e02…
10-22 03:45:39	Warriors vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	77	96¢	$74	0x7e1a94…
10-20 05:37:06	Will Logan Paul pull a Reverse Holographic Gengar?	No	SELL	100	57¢	$57	0x75a986…
10-20 05:33:53	Will Logan Paul pull a Reverse Holographic Gengar?	No	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x824caf…
10-20 04:48:47	Will Logan Paul pull a Reverse Holographic Gengar?	No	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0xbcbcae…
10-20 01:26:29	will logan paul pull a reverse holographic gengar	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x9d73bb…
10-18 23:45:42	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 19?	No	SELL	200	77¢	$154	0xa64033…
10-18 23:31:17	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 19?	No	BUY	27	81¢	$22	0xcec8d5…
10-18 23:31:03	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 19?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x3b3ee7…
10-18 23:30:54	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 19?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xe7907a…
10-18 23:30:39	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 19?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xb7a460…
10-18 23:30:36	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 19?	No	BUY	23	81¢	$19	0x9ea057…
10-18 23:27:50	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on October 19?	No	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xe0a627…
10-18 23:25:50	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on October 19?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x622bdb…
10-16 14:06:45	osborn flips ricketts for nebraska senate by november 2	Yes	SELL	69	14¢	$10	0x7e2923…
10-16 13:37:01	osborn flips ricketts for nebraska senate by november 2	Yes	BUY	37	14¢	$5	0xdb395e…
10-16 13:20:49	osborn flips ricketts for nebraska senate by november 2	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x17d0d2…
10-16 09:57:21	osborn flips ricketts for nebraska senate by november 2	Yes	BUY	11	20¢	$2	0x7ec245…
10-16 09:52:28	osborn flips ricketts for nebraska senate by november 2	Yes	SELL	40	22¢	$9	0xcfe40f…
10-16 09:46:00	osborn flips ricketts for nebraska senate by november 2	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xc02748…
10-16 09:45:07	osborn flips ricketts for nebraska senate by november 2	Yes	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0xa77f5e…
10-15 08:23:29	dwts 35 week 6 elimination julsti	Yes	SELL	178	4¢	$6	0x9a13d9…
10-15 06:59:11	dwts 35 week 6 elimination julsti	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xe7db83…
10-15 06:59:11	dwts 35 week 6 elimination julsti	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xd0ddab…
10-15 06:59:04	dwts 35 week 6 elimination julsti	Yes	BUY	78	4¢	$3	0x0ec5a2…
10-15 06:45:43	StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	No	BUY	281	99¢	$279	0x5f8120…
10-15 04:17:32	dwts 35 week 6 elimination julsti	Yes	BUY	60	4¢	$2	0xde4801…
10-15 03:39:37	dwts 35 week 6 elimination julsti	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x34d0aa…
10-15 03:38:14	dwts 35 week 6 elimination julsti	Yes	BUY	60	4¢	$2	0xefb91b…
10-15 02:51:35	dwts 35 week 6 elimination julsti	Yes	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0x3a7dd0…
10-13 16:01:31	katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0x4873f6…
10-13 15:52:22	katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0x31ba70…
10-13 15:51:48	katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	Yes	SELL	34	17¢	$6	0x3dd94a…
10-13 15:45:16	katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	Yes	SELL	6	17¢	$1	0x3c5a66…
10-13 15:42:54	katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xae4d82…
10-13 15:41:21	katie zacharia out as press secretary by december 31	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x1a4bd1…
10-13 15:34:19	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 31	Yes	SELL	130	4¢	$5	0x62f7b7…
10-13 15:30:53	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 31	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0xee41be…
10-13 15:28:52	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 31	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xd69bcc…
10-12 08:57:57	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	SELL	1,000	98¢	$977	0x35c9eb…
10-12 08:57:34	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	711	98¢	$695	0xb821cb…
10-12 08:57:12	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	289	98¢	$283	0x81f069…
10-12 02:12:51	Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	SELL	269	3¢	$9	0x88d769…
10-11 01:05:39	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0xa900ac…
10-10 06:14:51	Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	SELL	296	1¢	$2	0xe99a1e…
10-09 02:13:24	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	18¢	$36	0x6bd568…
10-09 02:11:38	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	18¢	$36	0x4a180e…
10-09 01:23:30	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0x2c3077…
10-08 16:26:39	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x013f0b…
10-08 05:21:52	Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	SELL	269	1¢	$4	0x4fbba8…
10-08 04:51:14	Will Victor Chernozhukov win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	4¢	$2	0xb69b6a…
10-08 04:34:11	Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	3¢	$2	0x6c0cfd…
10-08 04:33:05	Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	2¢	$1	0x97596a…
10-08 04:28:55	Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	1¢	$0	0x7870ac…
10-08 04:28:53	Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0x7f6873…
10-08 04:21:23	Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x948fb9…
10-08 03:47:01	Will Victor Chernozhukov win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x8e2012…
10-08 03:46:25	Will Victor Chernozhukov win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	5¢	$2	0xf521df…
10-08 03:46:25	Will Victor Chernozhukov win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	5¢	$2	0x62ffc2…
10-08 03:31:37	Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	326	4¢	$14	0x5c2c67…
10-08 03:22:44	Will Victor Chernozhukov win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	4¢	$2	0xeb289a…
10-08 03:18:11	Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0xcc4bc5…
10-08 03:17:59	Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0x345e22…
10-08 03:17:34	Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0xd29b2f…
10-08 02:55:08	Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x262aa7…
10-08 02:55:08	Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x0cd361…
10-08 02:54:07	Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x29b523…
10-08 02:50:28	Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xc0d8d6…
10-08 02:07:34	Will Javier Milei win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	BUY	146	3¢	$4	0xcf1d03…
10-08 00:24:34	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?	Yes	SELL	15	89¢	$13	0x1ec3f9…
10-08 00:22:50	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?	Yes	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x358a2f…
10-08 00:22:50	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?	Yes	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x2ddc0e…
10-08 00:21:04	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x056e2b…
10-07 17:38:27	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?	No	SELL	59	4¢	$3	0x0c3f81…
10-07 16:49:38	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?	No	BUY	19	4¢	$1	0x133148…
10-07 16:49:37	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?	No	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0x12b33b…
10-07 16:47:59	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?	No	BUY	19	3¢	$1	0xf341cf…
10-07 16:37:31	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?	No	SELL	35	3¢	$1	0xfec536…
10-07 16:18:37	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?	No	BUY	21	2¢	$0	0x46cc10…
10-07 16:16:52	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?	No	SELL	19	3¢	$1	0x51c64d…
10-07 16:01:29	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x0a60ae…
10-07 15:23:20	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?	No	SELL	68	3¢	$2	0x14685a…
10-07 14:53:44	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?	No	SELL	55	3¢	$2	0xd8568e…
10-07 13:47:14	Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0xa3270f…
10-07 13:45:31	Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x1a6598…
10-07 13:03:59	Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	60¢	$25	0x4823fb…
10-07 13:03:56	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?	No	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x372323…
10-07 12:58:59	Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x521895…