Fumbling-Rethinking — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6.10K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

64.8%

Resolved

441

Trades

994

lifetime

Volume

$144.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$145

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 10-28 13:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 94 days

Categories

Other

96% 58% +$5,971

Crypto

4% 69% +$124

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 42 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
coin up or down on april 13 2026	13	$10.8K	10,152	9,317	+835	Up	+$864	04-13 13:50
tsla up or down on april 13 2026	9	$10.8K	11,612	10,383	+1,229	Up	+$1,059	04-13 06:02
pltr up or down on april 13 2026	10	$6.2K	6,101	5,464	+637	Up	+$1,196	04-13 08:34
spx opens up or down on march 2 2026	9	$5.6K	14,750	2,632	+12,118	Down	-$2,505	02-28 21:03
tsla up or down on february 20 2026	13	$5.5K	6,213	5,095	+1,118	Up	-$908	02-20 15:33
hood up or down on april 13 2026	7	$5.4K	4,337	4,303	+34	Up	+$1,020	04-13 03:38
googl up or down on april 9 2026	7	$4.7K	4,427	4,339	+88	Up	+$276	04-09 06:47
abnb up or down on april 13 2026	7	$3.6K	2,875	2,818	+58	Up	+$706	04-13 03:48
nflx up or down on march 5 2026	6	$3.5K	6,500	0	+6,500	Up	-$3,500	03-05 08:31
spx up or down on march 2 2026	13	$3.4K	3,787	3,447	+340	Up	+$634	03-01 07:02
amzn up or down on april 10 2026	3	$3.3K	2,321	2,276	+45	Up	+$966	04-10 16:41
spx opens up or down on february 17 2026	5	$3.2K	3,379	3,379	+0	Down	-$143	02-16 14:45
meta up or down on april 10 2026	2	$2.6K	2,963	2,907	+56	Up	-$462	04-10 16:39
meta up or down on april 9 2026	2	$2.2K	1,480	1,439	+41	Up	+$669	04-10 16:38
rklb up or down on april 13 2026	5	$2.1K	1,836	1,798	+38	Up	+$319	04-13 03:40
tsla up or down on march 5 2026	11	$2.0K	3,886	0	+3,886	Down	+$533	03-05 12:53
open up or down on march 11 2026	2	$2.0K	2,000	1,940	+60	Up	-$41	03-11 09:31
hood up or down on february 17 2026	8	$1.7K	2,523	812	+1,711	Down	+$904	02-17 17:20
coin up or down on february 27 2026	13	$1.6K	3,044	0	+3,044	Down	+$129	02-27 11:37
tsla up or down on april 14 2026	4	$1.4K	2,231	0	+2,231	Up	+$801	04-14 06:32
nvda up or down on april 10 2026	2	$1.3K	2,565	0	+2,565	Up	-$1,282	04-10 00:16
coin up or down on march 6 2026	5	$1.2K	2,447	0	+2,447	Down	-$187	03-06 07:52
spy up or down on april 23 2026	6	$1.1K	2,346	1,260	+1,086	Down	-$26	04-23 16:47
open up or down on april 10 2026	4	$1.1K	768	752	+16	Up	+$387	04-14 04:33
open up or down on april 13 2026	6	$1.1K	1,739	1,158	+581	Up	+$453	04-13 08:36
tsla up or down on september 30 2026	3	$1.0K	996	508	+488	Up	-$364	09-30 18:45
amzn up or down on april 9 2026	3	$1.0K	1,147	719	+428	Up	-$180	04-09 05:33
coin up or down on april 15 2026	5	$960	1,744	155	+1,589	Up	-$532	04-15 08:54
meta up or down on april 14 2026	3	$829	1,510	0	+1,510	Up	+$681	04-14 02:55
open up or down on february 20 2026	2	$790	450	450	+0	Up	+$94	02-20 17:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 13:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0xb24363…
10-28 13:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x453c9a…
10-28 13:12:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0xe9d793…
10-28 13:07:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET	Down	SELL	130	100¢	$130	0x164fdf…
10-28 12:09:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0xdc334c…
10-28 12:08:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x5526bb…
10-28 12:08:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0xcff89b…
10-28 12:08:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	162	62¢	$100	0x2f1122…
10-28 11:10:38	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x1e6755…
10-28 11:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0xf2891c…
10-28 11:07:32	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x99009e…
10-28 08:04:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	43	42¢	$18	0x2b3964…
10-28 04:37:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	166	60¢	$100	0xe0d2cb…
10-28 04:37:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0xa2f3e6…
10-28 04:36:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0xd650e4…
10-28 02:15:05	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	70	70¢	$49	0x954a20…
10-27 21:59:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	533	34¢	$182	0x34690b…
10-27 21:31:00	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xc9dd11…
10-27 21:31:00	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x71049e…
10-27 21:30:53	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x013923…
10-27 21:30:51	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x5de098…
10-27 21:30:50	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xf88d32…
10-27 21:30:50	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xcd9360…
10-27 21:30:50	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x903d9b…
10-27 21:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x519805…
10-27 21:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x00476b…
10-27 21:30:47	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x709775…
10-27 21:30:47	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x2b991d…
10-27 21:30:41	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x476efa…
10-27 21:30:41	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	48	45¢	$22	0x36a938…
10-27 21:22:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x177b6e…
10-27 21:22:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x10445d…
10-27 21:22:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0xde362d…
10-27 21:22:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0xcd777f…
10-27 21:13:54	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0x764f43…
10-27 20:55:33	coin up or down on october 28 2026	Down	BUY	316	67¢	$211	0xf0f6d2…
10-27 20:49:32	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	26	46¢	$12	0x31898d…
10-27 20:48:39	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	42	46¢	$19	0xbf232f…
10-27 20:48:38	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x87b2c6…
10-27 20:48:11	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xaeab0c…
10-27 20:48:11	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	44	46¢	$20	0x0ba306…
10-27 20:45:12	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	40	46¢	$18	0x55602d…
10-27 20:40:53	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	44	46¢	$20	0x7ac127…
10-27 20:20:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	162	62¢	$100	0xdbefbd…
10-27 20:19:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0xb2f06b…
10-27 20:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x57cdc2…
10-27 20:17:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0x8a728e…
10-27 20:17:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0xdd5118…
10-27 20:11:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x76147d…
10-27 20:07:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0xb265d4…
10-27 20:07:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0xcbe4dc…
10-27 20:06:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x2a3eb9…
10-27 20:06:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x99b398…
10-27 20:06:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	33	76¢	$25	0x9dffe9…
10-27 10:46:06	Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xffd61e…
10-27 10:46:06	Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	357	62¢	$221	0xba834d…
10-27 10:46:06	Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	63	62¢	$39	0x53a615…
10-27 09:16:03	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	266	65¢	$172	0xbf0754…
10-26 05:45:15	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on October 26?	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x21d544…
10-26 05:22:57	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0xe9a3e6…
10-26 05:15:53	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	168	25¢	$42	0x282ddc…
10-26 05:15:29	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	387	78¢	$302	0x8988a9…
10-26 05:15:18	Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	266	77¢	$204	0x4fa867…
10-26 05:14:15	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on October 26?	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x54b467…
10-26 05:14:02	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on October 26?	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x0a00ad…
10-26 05:07:03	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on October 26?	Up	BUY	271	67¢	$181	0xb7a825…
10-25 22:06:17	Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on October 26?	Up	BUY	205	58¢	$118	0xcbaffe…
10-24 07:01:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Up	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0xa34750…
10-24 07:00:42	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Up	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x6d8c07…
10-24 07:00:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Up	BUY	49	54¢	$26	0x334a5b…
10-24 07:00:03	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Up	BUY	80	54¢	$43	0x249d27…
10-23 12:53:15	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	BUY	57	55¢	$31	0xe9ffea…
10-23 10:37:26	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	BUY	368	57¢	$210	0x929e42…
10-23 10:36:56	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Up	SELL	132	43¢	$57	0x02fc5a…
10-23 03:12:09	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Up	BUY	59	53¢	$31	0x2aa0c1…
10-22 21:53:09	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Up	BUY	73	53¢	$39	0x84f3a6…
10-22 08:42:30	Meta (META) Up or Down on October 22?	Down	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0x1b0bfc…
10-20 16:00:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x426d29…
10-20 15:45:26	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	BUY	13	83¢	$11	0xa8104a…
10-20 15:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x52d10c…
10-20 15:43:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf68152…
10-20 04:04:44	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xc513d0…
10-20 01:27:36	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on October 20?	Down	BUY	496	48¢	$238	0x75e46f…
10-19 00:12:57	Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0xcfd33d…
10-18 23:13:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	29	54¢	$16	0xc9e334…
10-18 22:50:48	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0x7fb727…
10-18 22:22:30	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x6c9308…
10-18 22:21:57	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0x8031fe…
10-18 22:21:51	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0xcb3a96…
10-18 22:21:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x55d0f3…
10-18 22:21:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x1dacf4…
10-18 22:21:35	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	40	54¢	$22	0xc660a5…
10-18 22:21:11	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0xf55f20…
10-18 22:21:05	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x320e01…
10-18 22:20:56	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x198c50…
10-18 22:20:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x9ca278…
10-18 22:20:11	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x9e1cb1…
10-18 22:20:02	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0xf417ec…
10-18 22:19:53	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 19?	Up	BUY	179	54¢	$96	0xb568ba…
10-18 22:19:02	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $255 on October 19?	Yes	BUY	271	17¢	$45	0xc7f4a5…