Fumbling-Rethinking — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$451

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

39.2%

Resolved

Trades

860

lifetime

Volume

$134.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$157

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 08-11 05:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

98% 25% $-451

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
coin up or down on april 13 2026	13	$10.8K	10,152	9,317	+835	open	—	04-13 13:50
tsla up or down on april 13 2026	9	$10.8K	11,612	10,383	+1,229	open	—	04-13 06:02
pltr up or down on april 13 2026	10	$6.2K	6,101	5,464	+637	open	—	04-13 08:34
spx opens up or down on march 2 2026	9	$5.6K	14,750	2,632	+12,118	open	—	02-28 21:03
tsla up or down on february 20 2026	13	$5.5K	6,213	5,095	+1,118	open	—	02-20 15:33
hood up or down on april 13 2026	7	$5.4K	4,337	4,303	+34	open	—	04-13 03:38
googl up or down on april 9 2026	7	$4.7K	4,427	4,339	+88	open	—	04-09 06:47
abnb up or down on april 13 2026	7	$3.6K	2,875	2,818	+58	open	—	04-13 03:48
nflx up or down on march 5 2026	6	$3.5K	6,500	0	+6,500	open	—	03-05 08:31
spx up or down on march 2 2026	13	$3.4K	3,787	3,447	+340	open	—	03-01 07:02
amzn up or down on april 10 2026	3	$3.3K	2,321	2,276	+45	open	—	04-10 16:41
spx opens up or down on february 17 2026	5	$3.2K	3,379	3,379	+0	open	—	02-16 14:45
meta up or down on april 10 2026	2	$2.6K	2,963	2,907	+56	open	—	04-10 16:39
meta up or down on april 9 2026	2	$2.2K	1,480	1,439	+41	open	—	04-10 16:38
rklb up or down on april 13 2026	5	$2.1K	1,836	1,798	+38	open	—	04-13 03:40
tsla up or down on march 5 2026	11	$2.0K	3,886	0	+3,886	open	—	03-05 12:53
open up or down on march 11 2026	2	$2.0K	2,000	1,940	+60	open	—	03-11 09:31
hood up or down on february 17 2026	8	$1.7K	2,523	812	+1,711	open	—	02-17 17:20
coin up or down on february 27 2026	13	$1.6K	3,044	0	+3,044	open	—	02-27 11:37
tsla up or down on april 14 2026	4	$1.4K	2,231	0	+2,231	open	—	04-14 06:32
nvda up or down on april 10 2026	2	$1.3K	2,565	0	+2,565	open	—	04-10 00:16
coin up or down on march 6 2026	5	$1.2K	2,447	0	+2,447	open	—	03-06 07:52
spy up or down on april 23 2026	6	$1.1K	2,346	1,260	+1,086	open	—	04-23 16:47
open up or down on april 10 2026	4	$1.1K	768	752	+16	open	—	04-14 04:33
open up or down on april 13 2026	6	$1.1K	1,739	1,158	+581	open	—	04-13 08:36
amzn up or down on april 9 2026	3	$1.0K	1,147	719	+428	open	—	04-09 05:33
coin up or down on april 15 2026	5	$960	1,744	155	+1,589	open	—	04-15 08:54
meta up or down on april 14 2026	3	$829	1,510	0	+1,510	open	—	04-14 02:55
open up or down on february 20 2026	2	$790	450	450	+0	open	—	02-20 17:25
nvda close above 180 on march 9 2026	1	$779	1,414	0	+1,414	open	—	03-08 19:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 05:05:34	rklb up or down on august 11 2026	Down	BUY	90	92¢	$83	0x113e6c…
08-11 04:37:40	tsla up or down on august 11 2026	Up	BUY	40	57¢	$23	0xd4fb03…
08-03 11:01:06	abnb up or down on august 3 2026	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xf4f6bc…
08-03 10:38:02	abnb up or down on august 3 2026	Up	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0x1f7fd5…
08-03 10:26:41	abnb up or down on august 3 2026	Up	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0xbf75d0…
08-03 10:17:03	abnb up or down on august 3 2026	Up	BUY	70	53¢	$37	0xff4bcc…
08-03 05:45:20	rklb up or down on august 3 2026	Up	BUY	110	59¢	$65	0xdd6881…
08-03 05:43:27	abnb up or down on august 3 2026	Up	BUY	340	51¢	$173	0xfee913…
05-06 17:30:10	Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	SELL	214	48¢	$103	0xe94618…
05-06 10:31:26	Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	150	61¢	$92	0xfbe565…
05-06 10:21:18	Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	150	60¢	$90	0x684dce…
05-06 10:05:36	Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	150	65¢	$98	0xa62ab0…
05-06 09:27:02	Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x478caf…
05-06 09:07:24	Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	150	55¢	$82	0x0afa37…
05-06 09:05:16	Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	150	54¢	$81	0x42d47c…
05-06 09:00:22	Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0xc499c9…
05-06 07:22:16	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	182	72¢	$130	0x354764…
05-06 07:01:26	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	159	71¢	$113	0x1c2d81…
05-06 04:44:40	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	160	68¢	$109	0x793062…
05-06 04:27:32	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	70	58¢	$41	0x56fe34…
05-06 03:31:34	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 6?	Up	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0x248156…
05-06 03:30:48	Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	60	55¢	$33	0xc28bc9…
05-05 11:28:22	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0xc6a6e9…
05-05 08:19:48	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x2f59ca…
05-05 06:57:38	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	39	25¢	$10	0x059aea…
05-04 02:28:12	Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0x01f1c3…
05-04 02:19:20	Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	25	53¢	$13	0x82ce93…
05-04 02:13:24	Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0xa81659…
05-04 02:13:00	Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	190	56¢	$106	0x97a972…
05-04 02:03:06	Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	500	54¢	$268	0x1eb273…
05-04 01:59:58	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0xa85732…
05-04 01:10:42	Meta (META) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	366	56¢	$207	0xa7b996…
05-01 06:12:04	Meta (META) Up or Down on May 1?	Up	BUY	94	54¢	$51	0x2b2627…
04-30 18:57:46	Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	155	68¢	$105	0x0c0d6c…
04-30 18:56:48	Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	150	62¢	$93	0x753e12…
04-30 07:10:14	Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	823	69¢	$572	0x163251…
04-30 05:43:02	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	314	61¢	$191	0xce2550…
04-30 04:28:44	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	150	69¢	$103	0xae86bc…
04-30 04:27:24	Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	74	57¢	$42	0x5f8afc…
04-30 04:26:16	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xf01acf…
04-30 04:24:02	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	150	70¢	$105	0x82d025…
04-30 04:23:56	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	57	62¢	$35	0xdfe99a…
04-30 04:23:10	Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	86	52¢	$45	0xd6ee5b…
04-30 04:22:40	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0xee2f0a…
04-30 04:22:10	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	168	51¢	$86	0xb2187b…
04-29 12:15:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	107	66¢	$70	0x96d72b…
04-29 12:06:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x764bac…
04-29 12:05:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x9d19a0…
04-29 12:05:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	23	56¢	$13	0x18207e…
04-29 06:57:54	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	160	62¢	$98	0x4518c6…
04-29 06:57:32	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	80	62¢	$50	0x87a387…
04-29 06:57:22	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	551	58¢	$322	0xea0d0f…
04-29 06:51:28	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	130	53¢	$69	0xa05c88…
04-29 04:39:46	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	330	58¢	$191	0xd2f0b4…
04-28 05:45:08	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x63e4a8…
04-28 05:28:46	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	75	48¢	$36	0x37afcd…
04-28 05:18:24	Meta (META) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	76	57¢	$43	0x53c495…
04-28 05:14:10	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	250	50¢	$125	0xab8db7…
04-28 03:28:52	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 28?	Up	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0x3a7ea3…
04-28 03:16:34	Meta (META) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x3a3e56…
04-28 03:09:24	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x1720ee…
04-28 03:08:38	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x52945b…
04-28 03:08:14	Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	160	49¢	$78	0xc1be09…
04-28 03:07:52	Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	197	55¢	$107	0xf82220…
04-28 03:07:16	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0x21f132…
04-27 06:34:38	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on April 27?	No	BUY	307	85¢	$261	0xdd4096…
04-27 06:33:48	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on April 27?	No	BUY	15	56¢	$9	0xd0bcd5…
04-27 06:33:06	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	311	71¢	$221	0x6b36dd…
04-27 05:45:06	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	150	66¢	$99	0x02ca73…
04-27 05:27:06	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	201	61¢	$122	0x96de5b…
04-27 03:28:42	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	150	51¢	$76	0x9d3db2…
04-27 03:23:32	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 27?	Up	SELL	428	65¢	$278	0x2f55a2…
04-27 01:58:08	Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xc6cfe0…
04-27 01:56:30	Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	158	45¢	$71	0x0a65e3…
04-27 01:55:18	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0xa2beb4…
04-27 00:13:30	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	428	38¢	$163	0x4d1e7e…
04-27 00:13:02	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	439	35¢	$154	0x510db0…
04-24 01:52:20	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 24?	Up	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x14c5a0…
04-23 21:17:04	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 24?	Up	BUY	31	45¢	$14	0x8caa56…
04-23 16:47:08	spy up or down on april 23 2026	Up	SELL	357	42¢	$151	0xcdb779…
04-23 16:46:48	spy up or down on april 23 2026	Up	SELL	119	43¢	$51	0x2f6fff…
04-23 16:46:08	spy up or down on april 23 2026	Up	SELL	670	45¢	$300	0xffb41f…
04-23 16:45:48	spy up or down on april 23 2026	Up	SELL	114	46¢	$52	0x3dbcc3…
04-23 06:59:18	spy up or down on april 23 2026	Up	BUY	1,744	25¢	$436	0x47f0fb…
04-23 06:53:08	spy up or down on april 23 2026	Up	BUY	602	24¢	$145	0x3788af…
04-22 05:58:40	abnb up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	350	57¢	$199	0x715b7b…
04-22 05:57:30	meta up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	103	69¢	$71	0xc3fa1b…
04-22 05:53:10	coin up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	190	68¢	$129	0xc76502…
04-22 00:24:20	open up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x203208…
04-22 00:22:50	hood up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x4667d3…
04-22 00:22:16	coin up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	190	61¢	$116	0x5b63ed…
04-22 00:21:26	nvda up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	200	57¢	$114	0x79db7e…
04-22 00:19:32	rklb up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	311	65¢	$202	0x2a102a…
04-22 00:18:38	googl up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	184	64¢	$118	0xbecfcd…
04-22 00:17:56	meta up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	253	60¢	$152	0xb72e3c…
04-22 00:16:32	pltr up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	257	59¢	$152	0xf52c1f…
04-22 00:15:50	open up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	200	58¢	$116	0x6ce7c9…
04-22 00:15:18	tsla up or down on april 22 2026	Up	BUY	411	59¢	$242	0x49e958…
04-20 11:40:28	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	SELL	58	20¢	$12	0x0455fa…
04-20 11:40:12	spx up or down on april 20 2026	Up	SELL	87	21¢	$18	0xc468a2…