Favorable-Definition — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$151

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

49.5%

Resolved

2,518

Trades

3,692

lifetime

Volume

$6.79K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 11-04 13:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 237 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 47% -$133

Politics

2% 25% +$24

Other

1% 20% -$38

Sports

0% 20% -$6

Tech

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 42 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes		-8	-$4	8¢	$-1	+$3	06-02 04:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	3	$49	42	42	+0	Yes	+$35	03-03 06:18
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-16 17:00 UTC	2	$35	27	27	+0	Down	+$15	02-16 17:11
will partido popular win 25 27 seats in the 2026 aragon regional election	2	$28	25	25	+0	Yes	+$22	02-09 14:19
bitcoin up or down january 26 11am et	3	$20	14	14	+0	Down	+$8	01-26 17:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-02 05:30 UTC	3	$18	14	13	+1	Up	+$7	04-02 05:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 15:00 UTC	2	$15	17	17	+0	Down	+$13	02-20 15:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	3	$15	43	0	+43	Up	-$15	09-29 18:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	3	$14	15	9	+5	Down	+$2	05-29 05:28
bitcoin up or down january 30 2am et	3	$14	17	10	+7	Up	$0	01-30 07:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	5	$13	16	6	+10	Up	-$3	05-12 12:56
bitcoin up or down january 25 6pm et	4	$13	10	10	+0	Up	+$7	01-26 00:07
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-01 05:30 UTC	3	$12	9	9	+0	Down	+$3	04-01 05:43
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$12	25	25	+0	No	+$2	04-16 05:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-16 17:15 UTC	2	$11	9	9	+0	Up	+$5	02-16 17:25
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	2	$11	9	9	+0	No	+$1	01-15 08:31
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 17:45 UTC	3	$11	71	0	+71	Down	+$10	09-29 17:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-17 11:15 UTC	3	$11	22	0	+22	Up	-$11	02-17 11:21
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 540 559	3	$10	8	8	+0	Yes	+$6	01-16 16:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	2	$10	19	0	+19	Up	-$10	10-12 05:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	2	$10	25	0	+25	Up	-$10	10-06 09:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	2	$10	33	0	+33	Up	-$10	09-14 08:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	2	$10	25	0	+25	Up	-$10	10-06 14:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	1	$10	18	0	+18	Down	+$8	10-11 07:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	2	$10	20	0	+20	Down	+$10	09-14 05:15
bitcoin up or down february 1 5am et	1	$10	18	0	+18	Down	+$8	02-01 09:59
bitcoin up or down february 1 9am et	2	$10	25	0	+25	Down	-$10	02-01 14:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 07:45 UTC	3	$10	220	0	+220	Down	+$10	02-11 07:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	4	$9	6	6	+0	Up	+$3	05-20 17:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-29 12:15 UTC	5	$9	17	0	+17	Down	+$8	09-29 12:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	9	$9	22	0	+22	Down	+$13	10-01 21:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 14:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xcbf357…
11-04 13:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x3e1c3d…
11-04 09:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x9b01ff…
11-04 09:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x449754…
11-03 21:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0x6f670d…
11-03 21:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	73¢	$5	0x265392…
11-03 20:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xef6264…
11-03 19:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x8f1c5c…
11-03 19:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x89f881…
11-03 18:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x385284…
11-03 17:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x96c6ad…
11-03 17:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x139a6d…
11-03 16:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x7ee3e9…
11-03 16:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x0defb1…
11-03 14:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0x2f1be2…
11-03 13:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xfc846a…
11-03 13:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	36¢	$5	0xcfbf7e…
11-03 12:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x59efc6…
11-03 11:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0x57e01e…
11-03 10:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x68a8d5…
11-03 07:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x42822d…
11-03 04:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x315f61…
11-03 02:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	55¢	$5	0x876464…
11-02 19:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x77b3fe…
11-02 06:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	49¢	$4	0x5d8e9a…
11-02 04:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0x53429b…
11-02 02:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xa9e940…
11-02 01:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	49¢	$5	0x18bf69…
11-02 01:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	57¢	$4	0x85a012…
11-02 01:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0xac9409…
11-02 00:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0x5c46f3…
11-01 17:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x36a6ad…
11-01 16:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x37199b…
11-01 13:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0x440d7d…
11-01 09:15:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-01 09:15 UTC	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xca090c…
11-01 07:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x6cd5f1…
11-01 04:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0x4984f9…
11-01 03:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0xe3dbe6…
11-01 02:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	39¢	$4	0xda1142…
11-01 01:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0xdb1da0…
10-31 18:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x99a40f…
10-31 18:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x154eb3…
10-31 12:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x20726b…
10-31 12:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0x2c72c7…
10-31 10:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x737da8…
10-31 09:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0xe01d20…
10-31 09:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x40f13c…
10-31 08:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x067294…
10-31 06:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xfbf732…
10-31 06:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0xfe7172…
10-31 01:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x6db1a3…
10-31 01:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0x70632e…
10-31 00:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0xbd7502…
10-31 00:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0x3617cc…
10-31 00:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xdaf01f…
10-30 22:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x464627…
10-30 10:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x9ddd1e…
10-29 19:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xdc63af…
10-29 16:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x7790dc…
10-29 16:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x3505ab…
10-29 15:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0x927ad0…
10-29 15:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x629f01…
10-29 15:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x6266f0…
10-29 14:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0x884499…
10-29 10:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x4c55e0…
10-29 03:30:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x101c06…
10-29 00:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0x13c4af…
10-29 00:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0x66b4bb…
10-28 23:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0xaaf0ef…
10-28 23:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x579816…
10-28 22:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x4259ad…
10-28 22:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x01db63…
10-28 22:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0xdbdae4…
10-28 21:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x306cdc…
10-28 18:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0xad0e80…
10-28 08:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0xe3a5a8…
10-28 08:15:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x1f6c01…
10-28 08:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xf6f277…
10-28 04:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0xe64916…
10-28 03:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0x1549f4…
10-28 02:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x935168…
10-28 02:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x9928f7…
10-27 22:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x3a8b89…
10-27 22:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0x839a4e…
10-27 21:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x17a4a0…
10-27 21:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x8477c2…
10-27 21:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xbe9056…
10-27 20:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0xd40267…
10-27 20:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xdd7ea8…
10-27 20:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x2ea387…
10-27 19:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x376bda…
10-27 19:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x5828dc…
10-27 17:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0xf45aa3…
10-27 17:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0xe7ed28…
10-27 17:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x35e932…
10-27 16:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xa4adf7…
10-27 16:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xc1f60e…
10-27 16:00:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x67d313…
10-27 15:45:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0x09eb45…
10-27 15:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0xcaa77d…