Evergreen-Threat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

99.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.42K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$61

Open exposure

$16

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-24 16:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 51 days

Categories

Crypto

58% 96% -$1

Other

36% 93% -$6

Politics

6% 100% +$0

Sports

0% 100% +$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No		+16	$16	100¢	$16	+$0	10-24 16:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 60k on april 4	1	$105	105	+105	Yes	+$0	04-03 09:10
ethereum above 2400 on march 5	1	$105	105	+105	No	+$0	03-05 09:42
bitcoin above 76k on february 8	1	$104	104	+104	No	+$0	02-08 10:47
bitcoin above 74k on march 1	1	$104	104	+104	No	+$0	03-01 06:45
bitcoin above 86k on february 2	1	$104	104	+104	No	+$0	02-02 09:39
will the us next strike iran on february 14 2026 et	1	$104	104	+104	No	+$0	02-15 02:31
bitcoin above 72k on march 30	1	$103	103	+103	No	+$0	03-30 03:27
bitcoin above 96k on january 20	1	$103	103	+103	No	+$0	01-20 08:33
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 420 439	1	$102	102	+102	No	+$0	03-25 11:24
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 420 439	1	$102	102	+102	No	+$0	03-20 07:12
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 400 419	1	$102	102	+102	No	+$0	03-16 02:52
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	1	$102	102	+102	No	+$0	01-29 07:37
bitcoin above 76k on march 12	1	$100	100	+100	No	+$0	03-12 02:26
bitcoin above 94k on january 25	1	$100	100	+100	No	+$0	01-25 01:44
elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 240plus	1	$100	100	+100	No	+$0	04-18 07:15
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 220 239	1	$99	99	+99	No	+$0	04-13 08:41
bitcoin above 56k on june 7 2026	1	$99	99	+99	Yes	+$0	06-07 07:22
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 3?	1	$99	99	+99	No	+$0	06-03 01:54
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$98	98	+98	Yes	+$0	04-27 07:09
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	1	$96	96	+96	Yes	+$0	05-17 08:57
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in May 2026?	1	$96	96	+96	No	+$0	05-23 09:40
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3?	1	$96	96	+96	No	+$0	05-03 01:45
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	1	$96	96	+96	No	+$0	05-08 02:32
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28?	1	$96	96	+96	Yes	+$0	05-27 11:13
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026?	1	$96	96	+96	No	+$0	05-31 05:54
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	1	$96	96	+96	No	+$0	05-11 10:58
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15?	1	$96	96	+96	Yes	+$0	05-14 06:16
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	1	$95	95	+95	No	+$0	04-22 09:07
bitcoin above 66k on april 9	1	$95	95	+95	Yes	+$0	04-09 08:06
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	1	$95	95	+95	No	+$0	06-11 08:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 16:47:36	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xf8f04a…
09-15 05:23:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 15?	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x3a1327…
09-15 05:00:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xad2d35…
08-20 08:00:19	Will Mistral be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xcdb1d7…
06-11 08:13:52	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x1525b1…
06-11 08:13:39	bitcoin above 58k on june 11 2026	No	BUY	1,830	0¢	$4	0x9f5f5a…
06-07 07:22:12	bitcoin above 56k on june 7 2026	Yes	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xce9db4…
06-03 01:54:37	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 3?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x9e3d33…
05-31 05:54:36	Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026?	No	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0x8f79b0…
05-27 11:13:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0xac3e72…
05-23 09:40:47	Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in May 2026?	No	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0xb182f5…
05-17 08:57:05	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0x2619d4…
05-14 06:16:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0xd29800…
05-11 10:58:35	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0xfa0a44…
05-08 02:32:25	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0xc5de86…
05-03 01:45:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3?	No	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0x99e97c…
05-03 01:45:36	Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xabd43d…
05-03 01:45:26	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdce31f…
05-03 01:44:56	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,790	0¢	$4	0x00fe96…
04-27 07:09:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x786b68…
04-22 09:07:28	Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1deb26…
04-22 09:07:16	ethereum above 2100 on april 22	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3d98bc…
04-22 09:07:04	Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0xb91872…
04-18 07:15:30	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 240plus	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0199f5…
04-13 08:41:09	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 220 239	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x310da2…
04-09 08:06:37	bitcoin above 66k on april 9	Yes	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0xacbe08…
04-09 08:06:19	Will Google dip to $195 in April?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x79a579…
04-09 08:06:01	Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xceb798…
04-09 08:05:43	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 340 359	Yes	BUY	2,105	0¢	$4	0xfda772…
04-03 09:10:27	bitcoin above 60k on april 4	Yes	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0xbf154d…
03-30 03:27:58	bitcoin above 72k on march 30	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0x4b3842…
03-25 11:24:55	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 420 439	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x5fb152…
03-20 07:12:47	elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 420 439	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x83fba4…
03-16 02:52:37	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 400 419	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x69f1cb…
03-12 02:26:29	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7c8693…
03-12 02:26:19	bitcoin above 76k on march 12	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x88b608…
03-12 02:26:11	will alibaba have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 712	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x72504b…
03-05 09:42:15	ethereum above 2400 on march 5	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x7a95e7…
03-01 06:45:53	bitcoin above 74k on march 1	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0xd3aabf…
02-15 02:31:33	will the us next strike iran on february 14 2026 et	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0x02cf04…
02-08 10:47:33	bitcoin above 76k on february 8	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0xd795a2…
02-02 09:39:44	bitcoin above 86k on february 2	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0xabafb7…
01-29 07:37:26	russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x20cb3a…
01-25 01:44:48	bitcoin above 94k on january 25	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x90632d…
01-25 01:44:38	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2d0c16…
01-25 01:44:22	will bitcoin dip to 40k in january 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0db5b2…
01-20 08:33:08	bitcoin above 96k on january 20	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0xd110cc…
01-16 11:02:36	bitcoin above 100k on january 16	No	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0xb6c2df…
01-16 11:00:46	nba cle phi 2026 01 16	Cavaliers	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xc4dd8f…
01-12 03:14:06	bitcoin above 98k on january 12	No	BUY	89	100¢	$88	0xe78757…
01-12 03:13:52	elon musk of tweets january 2026 1040 1079	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x552237…
01-12 03:13:42	will avatar fire and ash 4th weekend box office be less than 21m	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf730ff…
01-07 07:52:51	bitcoin above 98k on january 7	No	BUY	89	100¢	$89	0x7607ac…
01-07 07:52:39	elon musk of tweets january 2026 560 579	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x754aa1…
01-07 07:52:31	will baidu have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xde40b3…
01-02 09:51:55	bitcoin above 84k on january 2	Yes	BUY	92	100¢	$92	0x84295c…