Noxious-Bacon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.86K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

42.9%

Resolved

Trades

154

lifetime

Volume

$138.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$896

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-01

last 11-02 11:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Tech

95% 70% -$4,007

Other

5% 47% -$2,874

Politics

0% 100% +$18

Crypto

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	11	$26.6K	14,456	14,343	+114	Yes	-$382	04-25 06:33
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	7	$18.7K	10,417	10,417	+0	Yes	-$645	04-17 07:36
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	7	$16.2K	10,246	10,246	+0	Yes	+$200	06-01 10:43
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	6	$11.7K	13,010	13,010	+0	No	-$4,678	10-17 12:57
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	6	$10.9K	7,779	7,667	+111	Yes	+$1,029	05-04 15:37
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$10.6K	6,383	6,383	+0	Yes	-$1,351	09-04 02:36
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	2	$10.0K	11,538	0	+11,538	Yes	+$1,538	06-25 11:44
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	1	$9.0K	9,574	0	+9,574	Yes	+$574	08-04 05:39
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	4	$5.3K	3,331	3,331	+0	Yes	-$745	09-04 04:33
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	7	$3.1K	3,961	3,961	+0	No	-$2,933	09-28 22:21
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	2	$3.0K	3,469	0	+3,469	Yes	+$431	03-13 06:19
Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May 17, 2026?	7	$2.6K	1,751	1,097	+654	Yes	+$38	05-15 04:15
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	3	$2.0K	2,955	2,955	+0	open	—	10-10 17:16
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	3	$1.6K	912	912	+0	Yes	+$7	10-18 12:04
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	2	$996	1,173	0	+1,173	Yes	+$177	08-04 05:32
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	3	$979	787	787	+0	Yes	+$36	08-13 01:44
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	4	$851	672	672	+0	Yes	-$153	07-18 17:38
Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for May 4–May 10, 2026?	2	$600	623	0	+623	Yes	+$23	05-04 15:44
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	2	$348	217	217	+0	No	-$50	10-22 17:04
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	1	$300	324	0	+324	Yes	+$24	07-18 17:41
Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for May 18–May 24, 2026?	2	$300	319	0	+319	Yes	+$19	05-19 06:55
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	2	$257	208	208	+0	Yes	+$16	04-12 08:30
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 8, 2026?	2	$204	108	108	+0	Yes	+$4	05-04 15:44
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?	2	$200	122	122	+0	Yes	+$0	05-04 15:44
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$151	976	943	+34	No	-$122	04-24 16:02
will thrash be the top us netflix movie this week	1	$100	104	0	+104	Yes	+$3	04-13 05:22
will claude opus 4 7 thinking be the top ai model on april 24 2026 style control on	1	$100	143	0	+143	Yes	+$43	04-24 20:29
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$100	112	0	+112	Yes	+$12	04-24 20:04
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$100	123	0	+123	Yes	+$23	04-28 07:18
Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?	1	$100	138	0	+138	Yes	+$38	04-23 10:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 11:12:48	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x6af2c8…
10-22 17:04:42	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	217	69¢	$149	0x49098f…
10-21 17:53:38	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	217	92¢	$199	0x049581…
10-18 12:04:33	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	912	88¢	$807	0x510c67…
10-17 12:57:24	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	6,861	20¢	$1,366	0x19ecdc…
10-13 10:55:04	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	713	27¢	$196	0x2faa53…
10-12 09:16:44	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0x01a562…
10-10 17:16:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,455	19¢	$474	0x699ada…
10-10 17:03:15	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	36¢	$178	0x016a7b…
10-09 20:06:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,955	44¢	$1,300	0x8d5bc8…
10-01 20:27:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	6,149	35¢	$2,152	0x1c0d6f…
10-01 20:12:23	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,556	36¢	$2,000	0x47ad4c…
09-28 22:38:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	674	89¢	$600	0x3a9500…
09-28 22:35:05	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,067	89¢	$5,400	0xf2453c…
09-28 22:33:54	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	692	87¢	$600	0x47bf0c…
09-28 22:21:30	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,961	2¢	$67	0xf22637…
09-11 01:36:06	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	804	75¢	$600	0x3d7cd9…
09-08 23:17:58	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	278	72¢	$200	0x90e212…
09-06 17:45:30	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	685	73¢	$500	0xcdb67c…
09-06 17:45:28	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	719	70¢	$500	0x0e3102…
09-04 04:33:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,331	68¢	$2,255	0x6cb3f9…
09-04 02:36:45	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	6,383	73¢	$4,649	0xe0eb79…
09-02 15:55:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,980	91¢	$1,800	0x30493f…
09-02 07:16:00	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	726	83¢	$600	0x9e2492…
09-02 07:15:46	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	661	91¢	$600	0xdf06d4…
09-01 06:21:49	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	749	80¢	$600	0xf76ac9…
09-01 06:21:27	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,383	94¢	$6,000	0xc67e83…
09-01 06:20:55	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	689	87¢	$600	0xf3c478…
08-25 09:55:51	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x0ce4d6…
08-13 01:44:00	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	787	65¢	$508	0x9f89ce…
08-04 05:40:24	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	170	42¢	$71	0xb97c46…
08-04 05:39:54	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	9,574	94¢	$9,000	0xad5d72…
08-04 05:32:56	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,031	87¢	$900	0x8acf6d…
08-01 05:44:38	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	142	68¢	$96	0x7a219b…
08-01 05:33:35	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	616	65¢	$400	0x7d8b09…
07-18 17:41:34	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	324	92¢	$300	0xbe4671…
07-18 17:38:04	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	672	52¢	$349	0xb6e957…
07-17 16:02:10	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	120	62¢	$75	0x9a0972…
07-07 06:31:32	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	414	79¢	$327	0xb55745…
07-05 05:56:49	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x7aa22b…
07-05 05:56:49	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	1¢	$1	0x050e5e…
07-02 19:03:08	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0xbe4d21…
07-02 19:00:11	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x4e879f…
07-02 08:35:17	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x974acf…
07-01 05:23:29	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	3¢	$1	0x2179c8…
07-01 05:23:29	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	19¢	$8	0x0528e9…
06-29 07:59:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 07:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x448e4a…
06-28 12:59:26	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	24¢	$10	0x6d3ee3…
06-28 12:59:23	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xa0f07f…
06-28 12:55:47	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	24¢	$10	0x99d170…
06-28 12:55:47	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	42¢	$25	0x3d3c0d…
06-25 11:44:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,326	86¢	$2,000	0x7fc7fd…
06-25 11:37:08	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xdd9c35…
06-25 11:37:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xd7afd2…
06-23 18:47:01	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	9,212	87¢	$8,000	0x2a0c6f…
06-21 06:12:19	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	24¢	$20	0x70ceea…
06-21 06:09:20	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0x0d8bc6…
06-21 06:06:32	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	30¢	$12	0xe28169…
06-21 06:06:20	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	44¢	$20	0xb53831…
06-18 06:23:35	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x1ddd68…
06-18 06:23:35	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x18b0a9…
06-17 06:46:49	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	14¢	$6	0x7f485e…
06-17 06:46:46	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	42¢	$21	0xb4162e…
06-15 11:57:25	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x8dd659…
06-15 11:57:24	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xc665ba…
06-15 11:52:04	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	105	49¢	$52	0x267583…
06-15 11:51:57	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	2¢	$2	0x501dbb…
06-15 11:51:51	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	91	12¢	$11	0x1c8209…
06-10 06:41:58	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	18¢	$20	0x005f7d…
06-10 06:41:54	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0x3f0fef…
06-10 06:41:51	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0xafafaa…
06-10 06:40:00	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	15¢	$9	0xaa786c…
06-10 06:39:33	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	35¢	$20	0x92bb0a…
06-10 06:39:33	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	32¢	$17	0x30bece…
06-06 21:37:25	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x7a6b84…
06-06 21:37:21	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xf891f2…
06-06 21:37:21	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x5e7749…
06-06 21:34:00	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	2¢	$1	0x600d0f…
06-06 21:34:00	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	14¢	$9	0x49a959…
06-03 07:14:24	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0xf25f70…
06-03 07:14:18	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xa4f477…
06-03 07:13:42	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	108	9¢	$9	0x03b21a…
06-03 07:13:26	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	31¢	$15	0x17b5e2…
06-02 15:47:57	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x03e2fe…
06-02 15:36:55	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0xbadea3…
06-02 14:39:50	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	9¢	$10	0x51749b…
06-02 14:05:18	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x3a6c21…
06-02 07:34:35	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x7c71ef…
06-01 10:43:57	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,259	77¢	$3,264	0x869ac2…
06-01 10:43:57	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	5,987	82¢	$4,936	0x57fb54…
05-28 08:58:16	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xe7ebdc…
05-28 08:57:33	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	36¢	$9	0x912dd4…
05-27 07:47:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xcda737…
05-26 06:49:54	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,335	79¢	$5,000	0x60c818…
05-25 12:08:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	653	77¢	$500	0x18d1b2…
05-25 12:08:33	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	657	76¢	$500	0x0b20ea…
05-25 09:43:15	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x8078d0…
05-24 13:21:50	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,276	78¢	$1,000	0xd0d4c9…
05-24 06:42:29	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,325	75¢	$1,000	0x347ee4…
05-19 06:55:40	Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for May 18–May 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	210	95¢	$200	0xf26e91…