Lawful-Relationship — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$168

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

62.8%

Resolved

308

Trades

2,424

lifetime

Volume

$18.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$76

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-04 16:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 127 days

Categories

Other

75% 50% +$451

Politics

23% 49% -$191

Sports

1% 50% -$31

Crypto

1% 33% -$43

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$17

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	-35	-$34	98¢	$-34	-$1	09-14 00:46
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+20	$13	99¢	$20	+$7	11-02 09:49
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+40	$22	37¢	$15	-$7	11-02 18:21
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	+140	$32	3¢	$4	-$28	09-20 20:42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?	Yes	+65	$29	6¢	$4	-$25	11-03 13:29
Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	+0	-$42	18¢	$0	+$42	11-04 16:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	33	$492	980	910	+70	Yes	+$101	03-20 14:52
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 580plus	63	$407	1,193	1,038	+155	No	+$38	01-09 11:06
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 560 579	83	$348	2,073	1,569	+504	No	+$9	01-20 08:59
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	24	$335	700	700	+0	No	+$15	08-18 08:03
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 300 319	28	$294	385	385	+0	Yes	+$95	02-20 16:00
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 300 319	40	$268	1,216	1,173	+43	No	+$27	03-16 23:08
starmer out by june 22 2026	8	$228	375	285	+90	Yes	+$50	06-20 21:25
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	20	$228	275	375	-100	Yes	-$58	06-16 01:56
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	21	$227	1,147	1,100	+47	No	+$36	02-14 12:13
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 580plus	24	$215	518	300	+218	No	+$11	01-13 11:34
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 360 379	46	$213	1,658	1,446	+212	No	+$18	03-10 12:12
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	20	$203	500	380	+120	No	-$15	08-21 04:16
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	5	$200	160	120	+40	Yes	+$34	11-04 02:25
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 400 419	19	$198	715	715	+0	No	+$18	02-13 10:26
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 320 339	32	$195	880	700	+180	No	-$8	02-10 09:11
elon musk of tweets february 7 february 9 90 114	11	$193	220	220	+0	No	-$2	02-09 13:03
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 340 359	38	$192	2,832	2,832	+0	No	+$17	02-27 09:03
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 420 439	23	$191	637	417	+220	No	+$26	01-23 01:03
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	4	$183	180	130	+50	No	+$51	06-19 19:41
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	13	$180	210	70	+140	Yes	+$84	03-25 08:35
elon musk of tweets february 7 february 9 0 39	6	$171	246	246	+0	No	+$9	02-08 09:14
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 380 399	31	$168	733	752	-19	Yes	+$3	01-26 06:14
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 40 64	19	$168	1,025	1,025	+0	No	+$13	02-01 23:32
will italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	19	$166	388	258	+130	No	-$36	02-19 22:08
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 240 259	25	$158	1,303	1,303	+0	No	+$18	03-17 10:21
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?	12	$157	260	200	+60	Yes	+$1	08-17 08:13
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 560 579	47	$151	829	875	-46	No	+$26	01-06 09:34
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 540 559	36	$148	535	420	+115	No	+$6	01-06 06:51
elon musk of tweets february 12 february 14 65 89	13	$148	485	235	+250	No	-$30	02-14 07:14
elon musk of tweets january 22 january 24 165 189	23	$142	620	320	+300	No	-$37	01-24 14:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 16:15:58	Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	SELL	9	24¢	$2	0x0dd8eb…
11-04 13:45:45	Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	SELL	125	24¢	$30	0xc6ea89…
11-04 07:36:03	Will the Democratic Party control the Texas Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	11	23¢	$2	0x4a9be6…
11-04 06:11:57	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	26¢	$16	0xf79bf2…
11-04 05:48:12	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	34¢	$5	0x4d4a67…
11-04 05:48:03	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	34¢	$17	0x7dff95…
11-04 05:47:04	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	34¢	$9	0xaeeb69…
11-04 05:45:42	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	2¢	$1	0x8c4afc…
11-04 04:24:39	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	14¢	$13	0x309ae8…
11-04 04:15:40	Will the Democratic Party control the Texas Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x763615…
11-04 04:15:40	Will the Democratic Party control the Texas Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	45	41¢	$18	0x2edb84…
11-04 03:37:31	Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	SELL	44	2¢	$1	0x481e77…
11-04 03:12:27	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?	Yes	BUY	28	75¢	$21	0x116386…
11-04 03:12:25	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?	Yes	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0x459a46…
11-04 02:58:09	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	95¢	$47	0x1002f4…
11-04 02:56:31	Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat?	No	SELL	30	80¢	$24	0x5cabee…
11-04 02:38:01	Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat?	No	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0x7c7600…
11-04 02:25:55	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	93¢	$37	0xe4eda4…
11-04 02:24:27	Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat?	No	SELL	29	78¢	$22	0x9d037c…
11-04 02:24:16	Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x751155…
11-04 02:23:19	Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat?	No	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0xac376e…
11-04 01:46:39	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0x645b58…
11-04 01:31:45	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	65¢	$23	0xc9704f…
11-04 01:30:15	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x097763…
11-04 01:23:01	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	12¢	$4	0x738206…
11-04 01:22:30	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	14¢	$10	0x724ad5…
11-04 01:22:16	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	15¢	$12	0xe0ff3e…
11-04 01:21:52	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	139	5¢	$7	0xa0bb8d…
11-04 01:21:52	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x29d880…
11-04 01:21:42	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	13¢	$5	0x587f00…
11-04 01:20:49	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	13¢	$2	0xada5cd…
11-04 01:20:39	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x869b6b…
11-04 01:10:54	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	75¢	$9	0x819406…
11-04 01:10:52	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	75¢	$17	0x1aee66…
11-04 00:31:36	Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	65	14¢	$9	0xe2fd2b…
11-04 00:14:24	Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	6¢	$8	0x4ec9f5…
11-03 13:29:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xdc55d5…
11-02 21:10:48	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x3a6fdf…
11-02 21:09:15	Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	44	11¢	$5	0xc27e54…
11-02 20:49:51	Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	39¢	$14	0x766c99…
11-02 18:21:24	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	40	55¢	$22	0xfdb2a1…
11-02 09:49:55	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xce3144…
11-02 09:18:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?	Yes	BUY	45	48¢	$22	0xb6ba26…
11-02 04:43:40	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	40	71¢	$28	0xe27879…
11-02 03:54:00	Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	30¢	$20	0x9e4a71…
10-30 02:31:06	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	40	33¢	$13	0x8553b3…
10-29 03:53:04	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0xfbf209…
10-27 18:30:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x16226c…
10-26 12:46:32	Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	63¢	$22	0x46b5f1…
10-25 23:22:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	85	12¢	$10	0x4738de…
10-25 22:58:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	15	22¢	$3	0x75fe49…
10-25 22:55:57	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	70	23¢	$16	0x873655…
10-04 22:12:58	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	73¢	$58	0xd65852…
10-04 21:23:07	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	60	17¢	$10	0x69e30b…
09-22 23:15:31	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	75¢	$60	0x7e31af…
09-22 17:10:42	Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x8f9d83…
09-22 12:48:27	Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	97¢	$73	0xa9c367…
09-22 09:15:27	Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	BUY	38	9¢	$3	0x95764e…
09-21 20:39:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0xe8a216…
09-20 21:00:40	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	200	2¢	$4	0x72f702…
09-20 20:42:02	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	23¢	$9	0x7b8543…
09-20 19:46:23	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xb6833e…
09-20 19:45:20	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	23¢	$24	0xc85fda…
09-20 19:37:43	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	25	5¢	$1	0x7ad838…
09-20 19:37:40	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	75	5¢	$3	0xc7dcc1…
09-19 06:13:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	BUY	102	11¢	$11	0x037dde…
09-19 01:51:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0xe6da26…
09-17 19:41:15	Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	90	25¢	$22	0x8cb104…
09-17 15:13:39	Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	SELL	56	24¢	$13	0x1c2233…
09-17 15:01:13	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	10¢	$4	0x7bdaaf…
09-17 15:01:12	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	10¢	$7	0x11dc22…
09-17 15:01:01	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x0fd75b…
09-17 15:00:30	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	10¢	$4	0x7138fe…
09-17 14:23:49	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	10¢	$5	0xceafd7…
09-17 06:37:39	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	6¢	$0	0x2fded5…
09-17 06:31:55	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	6¢	$15	0x7b692f…
09-17 05:21:24	Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x620c7b…
09-17 02:22:24	Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x76f32c…
09-16 15:47:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	BUY	40	31¢	$12	0xbd6a39…
09-15 23:44:15	will wti dip to 90 in september 2026 from september 4	No	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0xf601be…
09-15 23:14:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0xdab40e…
09-15 08:29:15	Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x5e1e68…
09-14 17:10:12	Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	BUY	60	15¢	$9	0x8c4e5a…
09-14 15:39:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	No	BUY	40	52¢	$21	0x8c62af…
09-14 06:38:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x47ff28…
09-14 04:58:16	Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	SELL	0	36¢	$0	0xff1d9f…
09-14 04:37:07	Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	SELL	55	36¢	$20	0x2d9330…
09-14 00:46:01	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	35	96¢	$34	0x88028c…
09-13 23:34:15	Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	SELL	25	36¢	$9	0xdbafd9…
09-13 22:06:21	Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	BUY	80	15¢	$12	0x0203da…
09-13 21:09:19	Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	SELL	16	59¢	$9	0x6b12e8…
09-13 21:03:55	Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	SELL	10	59¢	$6	0x672635…
09-13 20:23:42	Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?	Yes	SELL	150	8¢	$12	0x09f953…
09-13 20:22:18	Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	BUY	26	25¢	$6	0x094b82…
09-13 20:02:13	Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0xe3a24b…
09-13 20:02:13	Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?	Yes	BUY	117	5¢	$6	0x961ad0…
09-13 20:01:34	Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?	Yes	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x00ad00…
09-01 16:34:06	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	10¢	$8	0x507a88…
09-01 16:29:19	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	10¢	$4	0x2c3a93…
09-01 16:27:34	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0x5606cc…